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Highly interesting lead problem


gwnn

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7654

AT63

KJ53

9

 

1N-3N, your lead.

I pick a major over because the opps made no effort to investigate a major fit. In spite of the school that says it is anti%age to under lead Axxx I lead an x of because the T is promotable plus the spots really vacuum quite well.

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A spade, because:

- None of their suits are breaking

- A heart is quite likely to give away a ninth trick

- When a heart lead "works", it often won't set up enough tricks to beat the contract.

- If we set up a long spade, A may provide an entry to it; if we set up a long heart, the spades won't provide an entry.

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6, because the other suits could be attacked succesfully in the middle of the hand. I think it stands out a little more at MP's, at IMP's it would be harder.
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I know people say you shouldn't lead from Axxx here but a heart really feels right to me. A spade just seems a long way from setting. A diamond could work but is too risky for my taste. It's true their suits aren't breaking, but given our spades and overall low spot cards they aren't all necessarily being a nuisance to declarer.
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Simulation (1000 hands):

 

S has 15-17balanced with possible 5M or 6m.

N has 9-14hcp 2-3, 2-3 without 8card minor or any 4-3-3-3 shape.

 

Number of hands given card is winning lead (at imps):

 

7 - 221

3 - 192

3 - 176

9 - 190

 

High score of 9 is certainly surprising but overall things are as expected:

is best while sucks.

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i am curious as to why any 4333 shape was eliminated as an option for the responder hand:)

 

English is not my native language so maybe I needed a coma there.

I wanted to say that responder has either (2-3 2-3 without 8 card major) or he has any 4-3-3-3 shape. Any English native speaker care to comment on meaning of my original sentence ?

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i am curious as to why any 4333 shape was eliminated as an option for the responder hand:)

 

English is not my native language so maybe I needed a coma there.

I wanted to say that responder has either 2-3, 2-3 without 8 card major or he has any 4-3-3-3 shape. Any English native speaker care to comment on meaning of my original sentence ?

You seem to have eliminated the following holdings from the N hand

1345

1354

3145

3154

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