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overtake?


Fluffy

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LHO is statistically favourite to hold the singleton diamond. Sure, the overtake can be the only way to set this, but it can also blow a trick. Whether or not it will be the 12th is open for discussion...

 

I wouldn't, unless I need a swing or so.

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[hv=d=e&v=n&e=sakq8xhj10xxdqjcxx&s=sjhxxda108xxxxxcqx]266|200|Scoring: IMP

1-3-3-ps

4-ps-4NT-ps

5-ps-6-ps

ps-ps[/hv]

 

against BBO experts, partner leads K.

As much as overtaking looks like the only clear shot to set this, did your LHO really use BW/RKC with a worthless doubleton? I would say that should be against the odds so just duck and don't give them a free discard which they might need

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Who cares, what is right opposite players who do not know what to do?

 

I would trust a good opponent that he has at most a singleton.

 

As I can see layouts where overtaking and returning will kill the defence, I will belive the bidding.

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against BBO experts

Yeah I'll overtake!

 

2 ways to win:

- partner had singleton K

- LHO believes partner has singleton K and ruffs high giving partner trump promotion

I put a handful of things beyond BBO experts, but I don't think any of them would believe you'd bid only 3 with a 9 card diamond suit headed by the A

 

Edit: ... I hope

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Say declarer holds something like:

 

xxx

AKQxxx

x

Axx

 

If we overtake the diamond, he can pitch a club on the diamond return. Then he pulls trump and cashes top spades, ruffing the fourth round, returns to dummy with a heart and pitches his last club on the established spade. If we don't overtake, he has one pitch (the fifth spade) but cannot get rid of his club loser. In principle he can always make by cashing one top spade and then hooking partner for T9xx, but this is not necessarily going to be found at the table. Some other examples:

 

Tx

AKQxxx

x

AJxx

 

x

AKxxxxx

x

Axxx

 

It obviously comes down to percentages and how likely you think LHO is to bid keycard with a small doubleton diamond. I'd duck the first trick.

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