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In that case I choose 5. I'll be damned if partner has 1 ace and I'll be damned if he has 3 aces, but the shortages in our major suits warrants some action given 4th seat has not had a chance to act. I'm willing to sacrifice the chance to have a scientific auction in the hopes of placing the 4th seat under maximum pressure.
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In that case I choose 5. I'll be damned if partner has 1 ace and I'll be damned if he has 3 aces, but the shortages in our major suits warrants some action given 4th seat has not had a chance to act. I'm willing to sacrifice the chance to have a scientific auction in the hopes of placing the 4th seat under maximum pressure.

lol, partner having 1 ace isn't necessarily damned, they'll have good chances in 4M..

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Pard will have a 12-14 balanced hand I guess 99% of the time. I tried to make up a layout where 3NT has a play for, but it's not easy.

 

Let's start with 2. If pard has a weak major, 5 will be fine. Else try and stop in partscore if possible (say with auction 1-2-2NT-3).

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5 is a gamble (may win, may go down, may have overtricks), 2 is not.  2 it is.

and there i was hoping the conclusion was 5!

Most important part of the argument is that we may have overtricks... ;)

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i assume 1cl-p-1sp! is alerted however with responders hand what is wrong with the following-as i see it---------

1cl-p-1d(this does not deny a major) if pard now bids a major(1) and still no opps bidding i go to 5cl,if opps come in i rebid 4cl--why murder your partner.

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i assume 1cl-p-1sp! is alerted however with responders hand what is wrong with the following-as i see it---------

1cl-p-1d(this does not deny a major) if pard now bids a major(1) and still no opps bidding i go to 5cl,if opps come in i rebid 4cl--why murder your partner.

1-1 shows 4+, they play T-Walsh!

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the thing is, I don't think the auction will give us such a great idea about partner's hand. I don't think we will effectively be able to find out how many major stops partner has, etc, how many aces has and so on and so forth.

 

Meanwhile, opps will be very happy to be able to sort out their major fits and games on convenient levels.

 

The more I think about it, the more I like 5.

 

I guess this is just my inv. min. problem though. If others are able to find out everything, more power to them.

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Meanwhile, opps will be very happy to be able to sort out their major fits and games on convenient levels.

 

The more I think about it, the more I like 5.

Actually .. that's a good point that I didn't consider. Partner apparently lacks a five card major, so opps are booked for a double fit. Kinda strange that righty didn't find a bid.

 

Once in a long while 5 will preempt us out of a slam, but much more often it will bollox the opponents. The more I think about it, the more I think you are right.

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Having 1-1 in the majors is the main reason why I like 5. You could hit partner with an unfortunate 4423 but with any other shape like (43)33 or any hand with 4+'s then the opponents are very likely to be cold for 4M. If partner has 4 or more clubs then I am very happy to have put the auction up to the 5 level for my left hand opponent.
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Pard will have a 12-14 balanced hand I guess 99% of the time.

I don't understand this part at all. But I agree to start with 2.

Well, if pard is not balanced, he'll have 5 clubs, which would give opps a massive major suit double fit.

 

I ran a 'dealer' simulation over 100 000 hands and got

 

59% 12-14 bal

18% 18-19 bal

17% unbal 5+ clubs

 

Sim conditions: normal sayc 1 opener + RHO not having a 1M overall (5+M, 9+hcp).

 

Ok, so 99% was a bit of an exaggeration :P But 12-14 bal is still the most likely and we should definitely cater for it.

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