simple declarer problem

[karlson]

[hv=d=s&v=n&n=saxxxxhtxdkqxcqtx&s=sxhaqj9xxdaxxcxxx]133|200|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

1♥-x-xx-2♣

2♥-p-2♠-p

3♦-p-4♥-ppp

 

♣A lead, east plays the lowest spot, smallish club continuation. They play UDCA but no further discussion about signals. Opponents are decent but not a regular partnership.

 

You can ask about pass vs. 1n. vs 2c over the redouble, but you don't get any useful answers.

[semeai]

Who knows, but I'll be normal and play the 10.

 

Four reasons:

 

1) RHO is more likely to bid 2C on Kxxx than Jxxx.

 

2) If RHO has Jxxx, I'd say it's more likely that comes with the heart King. He won't have the spade King, else he'd discourage I'd think. I think he'd just pass with QJx-xxx-Jxx-Jxxx or worse as he really doesn't care about the suit.

 

3) An Ace lead from AJx in the suit partner bid is reasonably likely given any hand I construct for LHO excluding those with KQJ of spades.

 

4) It takes something extra to play someone to have underlead (and there is risk to the underlead so it's not as though any decent player will do it: maybe I have two clubs and two spades and he needs to set up the spade trick now).

 

Of course, I still could be wrong.

[matmat]

and no info about leads from AK, of course =)

[pooltuna]

[hv=d=s&v=n&n=saxxxxhtxdkqxcqtx&s=sxhaqj9xxdaxxcxxx]133|200|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

1♥-x-xx-2♣

2♥-p-2♠-p

3♦-p-4♥-ppp

 

♣A lead, east plays the lowest spot, smallish club continuation. They play UDCA but no further discussion about signals. Opponents are decent but not a regular partnership.

 

You can ask about pass vs. 1n. vs 2c over the redouble, but you don't get any useful answers.

gut reaction is to put up the Q

[Phil]

Welcome to the forums, Semeai.

 

Good analysis and I can't quibble much with it. I would add that I don't see how LHO can work out that their partner has Jxxx versus Jxxxx. I would also think with the ♣J and the ♠Q, you'd see a discouraging club, since it looks like they need to get a spade trick going before the ♣Q is set up.

[semeai]

Welcome to the forums, Semeai.

Thanks, glad to be here!

[gwnn]

Just because there is a risk to a play it doesn't make it impossible for a good player to make it. Good players are good at mind games and making you guess wrong. They are good at randomising.

 

(the above is based on what I have read about good bridge, not on how I practise it B) )

[Free]

♣Q

[semeai]

Just because there is a risk to a play it doesn't make it impossible for a good player to make it. Good players are good at mind games and making you guess wrong. They are good at randomising.

 

(the above is based on what I have read about good bridge, not on how I practise it :) )

I didn't at all mean that a good player wouldn't underlead. Just that it wouldn't be automatic for a good player because there is some risk.

[karlson]

Results: I played the Q, figuring that it would be too weird to lead from AJx when there was probably a perfectly good spade lead available. Wrong, -1.

 

I think I've come around to it being too weird for righty to bid 2♣ on Jxxx, but I don't understand the spade shift argument. No matter what the club layout is, I can set up a trick if I guess the suit and so a spade shift could be right from either defender's point of view. In fact I thought that righty's card may well have just been count.

 

Another point in favor of the T is that righty probably has at most one of the ♣K and ♥K. So if the T loses to the J, I still have very decent play (I can pick up Kxxx on the right on many hands), but if the Q loses to the K I'm likely just down (righty probably has either ♥K or ♥void for a decent takeout double).

 

Edit: Uh, nevermind about the Kxxx part, thought I had one more entry than I did.

[G_R__E_G]

Righty bid freely after the redouble - despite the fact that they obviously have very few points. This would make me shocked if they didn't have both the K and the J but if I'm to hope they are missing one of them it would definitely be the jack.

[ArtK78]

It is normal and correct for RHO to bid his longest suit of any strength after 1♥- x - xx. It does not imply any top honors whatsoever.

 

Recently, in a team match, a teammate of mine who has been playing this game almost since it was invented made the novice mistake of not bidding her longest suit after that auction, passing the buck to partner. Her partner bid his longest suit, and the doubling began. The result was 1100.

 

My point is that you cannot take any inference from the 2♣ bid about the location of the honors in clubs. I would play the 10 at trick 2 because it is the normal play. First, we were not told what the opponents lead from AK. Obviously, if they lead the K from AK, then it would take a combination of an abnormal honor lead plus an underlead to make the 10 the wrong play. Even if they lead the A from AK, or if they randomize, the 10 is still likely to be the right play. The need for an underlead is likely to be far from clear to LHO, so there is no great reason to play for it.

[rogerclee]

It is normal and correct for RHO to bid his longest suit of any strength after 1♥- x - xx.  It does not imply any top honors whatsoever.

What? Obviously you do not believe this, unless you would really bid 2C with KQx xxx xxx Jxxx or something. Anyway to me it is normal to try to get out in 1Sx in our 4-3 spade fit when I have 3 spades. Them choosing to bid 2C even though they almost certainly have 3 spades is a big reason to play him for Kxxx as opposed to Jxxx.