serapuff Posted June 9, 2010 Report Share Posted June 9, 2010 Hi, Does anyone know the odds of making 3NT with a 6-2 fit and 23 hcp exactly? Will it be more or less than 50%? Thanks!Gideon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OleBerg Posted June 9, 2010 Report Share Posted June 9, 2010 No. Nobody knows that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gnasher Posted June 9, 2010 Report Share Posted June 9, 2010 The best way to find out is to bid it and see if it makes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascade Posted June 9, 2010 Report Share Posted June 9, 2010 The best way to find out is to bid it and see if it makes. That will not tell you the odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cherdanno Posted June 9, 2010 Report Share Posted June 9, 2010 The best way to find out is to bid it and see if it makes. That will not tell you the odds. You just need to do it often enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foo Posted June 9, 2010 Report Share Posted June 9, 2010 Hi, Does anyone know the odds of making 3NT with a 6-2 fit and 23 hcp exactly? Will it be more or less than 50%? Thanks!Gideon No one can tell you exact odds unless we are talking about a specific board. However, your 2nd question can be answered in general. If you want to be in a > 50% 3N, usually (there ARE exceptions!) it takes26+ HCP if we do not have an 8+ card fit between the 2 hands, and25+ HCP if we DO have an 8+ card fit between the 2 hands. There is also a known effect where it takes less HCP overall the more evenly those HCP are distributed between Declarer and Dummy. To the point where if there is exactly 12 HCP in each hand= 24 HCP total, 3N is usually > 50%. The reverse is also true. The greater the disparity in strength between the two hands, the more total HCP we need to have for a > 50% chance of making 3N.(If you think about the transportation issues implied by one hand or the other having much fewer HCP, this should make sense intuitively.) You will usually expect to be -1 in 3N if you only have 23 HCP between you. Most of the exceptions where you make 3N with less values than the above guidelines will involve having a solid or semi-solid source of tricks (AKQxxx, KQJxxx, etc) +and+ stoppers in all the side suits. When you have such lucky circumstances, you can often make 3N with far fewer HCP than the usual amounts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwnn Posted June 9, 2010 Report Share Posted June 9, 2010 And have a good enough memory. Some of our posters are, judging by their avatars, goldfish or other species of fish. OH!! WELCOME BACK FOO! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rhm Posted June 9, 2010 Report Share Posted June 9, 2010 A simulation (1000) deals assuming both hands are at least semi balanced (but no other constraints like suit quality, intermediates, distribution of points between declarer and dummy etc.) shows a success rate double dummy of 32%. In practice (single dummy) it is likely to be slightly higher but not by very much, certainly below 40%. Rainer Herrmann Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Free Posted June 9, 2010 Report Share Posted June 9, 2010 With super computers you might be able to give an exact number, but your parameters are so general that I'd say something like 25%. It depends on the suit quality, location of honours, having all suits stopped,... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foo Posted June 9, 2010 Report Share Posted June 9, 2010 OH!! WELCOME BACK FOO! Thanks! ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dake50 Posted June 9, 2010 Report Share Posted June 9, 2010 Yes, more than 50%. In fact, the linear interpolation for 50% is 22.3 hcp. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pooltuna Posted June 9, 2010 Report Share Posted June 9, 2010 Hi, Does anyone know the odds of making 3NT with a 6-2 fit and 23 hcp exactly? Will it be more or less than 50%? Thanks!Gideon This is usually a suit quality issue. J65432 vs Q7 I wouldn't like my chances but AKT432 opposite Q5 rates to only require 3 side suit tricks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
serapuff Posted June 9, 2010 Author Report Share Posted June 9, 2010 A simulation (1000) deals assuming both hands are at least semi balanced (but no other constraints like suit quality, intermediates, distribution of points between declarer and dummy etc.) shows a success rate double dummy of 32%.In practice (single dummy) it is likely to be slightly higher but not by very much, certainly below 40%. Rainer Herrmann This was what I was looking for. Thanks!Gideon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cascade Posted June 9, 2010 Report Share Posted June 9, 2010 With these constraints: spades(north)==6 andspades(south)==2 and # It would be the same for any other 6=2 fit hcp(north)+hcp(south)==23 I got these frequencies for the number of tricks one in 1000 deals double dummy 0 0 1 0 2 0 3 4 4 21 5 55 6 126 7 233 8 298 9 184 10 64 11 15 12 0 13 0 Eliminating some of the silly cases by forcing both hands to be resonably balanced - 6322 in the hand with the six card suit and 4432, 5332, 5422, 6322 or 7222 in the hand with the doubleton - the numbers became: 0 0 1 0 2 0 3 4 4 9 5 46 6 128 7 251 8 291 9 186 10 74 11 8 12 3 13 0 These numbers are considerably lower than the simulation by Rainer. Here is my code: spades(north)==6 andspades(south)==2 and shape(north, any 6322) andshape(south, any 4432 + any 5332 + any 5422 + any 6322 + any 7222) and hcp(north)+hcp(south)==23 with the reporting statement being frequency (tricks(south,notrumps),0,13), Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cloa513 Posted June 9, 2010 Report Share Posted June 9, 2010 The original question is too vague- what sort of hand holding 6 cards- balanced or semibalanced (singleton honour) or any. Same question for the hand holding 2 cards. Also is it 3NT solid contract or in all probability given any lead? The only solid 3NT hands that will make it against reasonable play are all four aces in the partnership and totally running 6 card suit. The 6 carder needs to have an outside ace if partner blocks his suit. Semibalanced except a useless J or singleton ace against any lead can't make. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
serapuff Posted June 10, 2010 Author Report Share Posted June 10, 2010 I guess I meant in a simulation with the only constraints being a 6-2 fit and 23 hcp combined, what is the probability of gaming 3NT double dummy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjbrr Posted June 10, 2010 Report Share Posted June 10, 2010 50-50. you either make it or you dont. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dake50 Posted June 10, 2010 Report Share Posted June 10, 2010 pooltuna nailed this one.Are you asking "undefined and un-shown (partner didn't announce this suit)" 6-suit?Or given a AK,AQ,KQxxxx shown, or known?The good 6-suit opposite Tx(+) is a very likely 6 tricks needing 3 from the 13 hcp not 6-suit AKQ in 22 combined. Is that the question? Try: Goren 26 with 4-4, or 5-3 fit is 26.What to add for good 5-suit: expected AKQ? Some plus for 12w12, near 24.What for good 6-suit: expected AKQ? Near 22. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matmat Posted June 10, 2010 Report Share Posted June 10, 2010 pooltuna nailed this one.Are you asking "undefined and un-shown (partner didn't announce this suit)" 6-suit?Or given a AK,AQ,KQxxxx shown, or known?The good 6-suit opposite Tx(+) is a very likely 6 tricks needing 3 from the 13 hcp not 6-suit AKQ in 22 combined. Is that the question? Try: Goren 26 with 4-4, or 5-3 fit is 26.What to add for good 5-suit: expected AKQ? Some plus for 12w12, near 24.What for good 6-suit: expected AKQ? Near 22. No, he really didn't. Why are you trying to mangle the original question? given ANY 23HCP AND exactly a 6-2 fit AND double-dummy defence and play, what fraction of NT contracts make 9 or more tricks? there are no suit quality conditions, there are no side suit conditions, there are no what ifs, what buts or whatevers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cloa513 Posted June 10, 2010 Report Share Posted June 10, 2010 By the way anyone want to guess how calculations would be needed to work out the original question? Would you say trillions? 10^12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matmat Posted June 10, 2010 Report Share Posted June 10, 2010 By the way anyone want to guess how calculations would be needed to work out the original question? Would you say trillions? 10^12 I would guess that somewhere around 10,000 randomly generated hands that fit the criteria would get you an answer to within a percent or so... that's just me, though... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cloa513 Posted June 10, 2010 Report Share Posted June 10, 2010 Thats a double dummy answer- you need to consider all the possible ways that opponents can play too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dake50 Posted June 10, 2010 Report Share Posted June 10, 2010 No, he really didn't. Why are you trying to mangle the original question? - matmat Simply because that sub-question IS ANSWERABLE !! Some part of THE answer is apparently TO YOU not responsive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwnn Posted June 10, 2010 Report Share Posted June 10, 2010 if ifs and ands were pots and pans Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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