hrothgar Posted August 2, 2004 Report Share Posted August 2, 2004 Whereagles wrote >What I mean is this. An 8-12 1H opener has the same range as a precision >11-15 1H, and, although the precision opener is like 10 times more precise >than a sayc 1H opener, it is still relatively undefined. In a competitive auction >you need extra accuracy, and some of it comes from the fact that opener has >enough playing strenght to make free bids. With 8-12 you hardly ever have a >rebid, while with 11-15 that's more likely. In other words, if you open 11-15 >you'll be able to help partner more often. Good grief. Haven't you figured out the difference between relative and absolute measures of strength??? Playing a strong pass system, rebids are based on the strength of the hand relative to the range shown by the opening bid NOT the strength of a hand relative to some absolute scale. This ain't rocket science... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted August 2, 2004 Report Share Posted August 2, 2004 Don't be ridiculous. How can someone who argues like I do not possibly understand such a simple thing? What I'm saying is the stronger your hand is, the more INDEPENDENT it is, and the more possible it is to take unilateral decisions that help in competitive bidding. It doesn't have anything to do with relative or absolute strenght. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtfanclub Posted August 2, 2004 Report Share Posted August 2, 2004 Don't be ridiculous. How can someone who argues like I do not possibly understand such a simple thing? What I'm saying is the stronger your hand is, the more INDEPENDENT it is, and the more possible it is to take unilateral decisions that help in competitive bidding. It doesn't have anything to do with relative or absolute strenght. I won't speak for Hr, but I understand what you're saying. I just think it's the reverse. If my partner opens 1H 11-15 and I'm considering game, I have about 9 hcp.If my partner opens 1H 8-12 and I'm considering game, I have about 14 hcp. Therefore, I should better be able to make a unilateral decision after the 8-12 opener. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hrothgar Posted August 2, 2004 Report Share Posted August 2, 2004 Whereagles wrote >Don't be ridiculous. How can someone who argues like I do not >possibly understand such a simple thing? Quite frankly, your postings to date don't suggest that you've spent much time studying this topic. If you have, than the time spent wasn't particularly productive. Case in point: >What I'm saying is the stronger your hand is, the more INDEPENDENT >it is, and the more possible it is to take unilateral decisions that help in >competitive bidding. Actually, the relationship is just the opposite... Lets consider your favorite example and compare two differ 5 HCP ranges. The first is 8-12 HCP. The second is 11-15 HCP. I used a dealer scripts to simulate the expected chance that responder will be dealt the appropriate number of HCPs. HCP Frequency8 8890429 93414810 94060711 89601612 80325413 69115314 56953815 442352 If you compare the standard error for the two distributions, its readily apparant that the 8-12 HCP range has a significantly higher standard error than the 11-15 HCP range. This really isn't at all surprising given that the 8-12 range stradles the mean for HCP distributions, while 11-15 HCP range is asymmetric. Some of the better theorists actually argue that the high variance intrinsic to the 8-12 HCP makes this too wide a range for a limited opening bid playing a light opening system and suggest restricting the range to 8-11 HCP based on problems with the constructive rebid structure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the hog Posted August 2, 2004 Report Share Posted August 2, 2004 "Don't be ridiculous. How can someone who argues like I do not possibly understand such a simple thing?" Some of us have been wondering that for a while. You also appear to be unfamiliar with continuations after a limited opener. I assume you have never played one, played against one or studied one. Most now are relay based. Hit a game try relay if you have one, or a normal relay if you don't, and slope out if you don't like what you hear. There is nothing to stop opener from bidding on with a maximum or extra shape. If responder has a GF he relays if he is unsure of the correct denomination or is interested in slam or places the contract otherwise. This is stock standard in WOS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luke warm Posted August 2, 2004 Report Share Posted August 2, 2004 now now, play nice... whereagles has some nice posts, but like all of us he's sometimes wrong.. not to say he is this time, i'm still trying to digest that table richard posted Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hrothgar Posted August 3, 2004 Report Share Posted August 3, 2004 now now, play nice... whereagles has some nice posts, but like all of us he's sometimes wrong.. not to say he is this time, i'm still trying to digest that table richard posted The table is fairly simple I ran a dealer script to simulate the number of hands with "X" HCP.The script dealt 889042 hands with 8 HCP, 934148 hands with 9 HCP, ... This ype of table can be used to calculate a number of variables.Calculating elative frequencies is the most common usage, however, you can alsouse the data to calculate the standard deviation or standard error... 8-12 HCP and 11-15 HCP are both 5 HCP ranges, however, 8-12 has a much larger standard error. The WEAKER range, has GREATER variance in hand strength., in direct opposition to Whereageles rather grandious assertion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irdoz Posted August 3, 2004 Report Share Posted August 3, 2004 8-12 HCP and 11-14 HCP are both 5 HCP ranges, however, 8-12 has a much larger standard error. Hmmm... Based on your frequencies the 8-12 range has mean of 9.953 and standard deviation of 1.313...and 11-15 range a mean of 12.665 and standard deviation of 1.365 - these calculations do not agree with your conclusion regarding the standard error - both in terms of the relative difference and the magnitude of that difference - but I might have made a typo with the data (cant see it though). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted August 3, 2004 Report Share Posted August 3, 2004 Hi all, My replies follow, by "order of arrival" :angry: Quoting: jtfanclub>I just think it's the reverse.>If my partner opens 1H 11-15 and I'm considering game, I have about 9 hcp.>If my partner opens 1H 8-12 and I'm considering game, I have about 14 hcp.>Therefore, I should better be able to make a unilateral decision after the 8-12>opener. Well, a stronger responder will indeed be able to act more independently. But I was thinking more of opener, though: the stronger opener is, the more likely he is to be able to do helpful free bids in competition. That's my whole point: 8-12 openings leave opener with little chance to help responder if the bidding escalates. Unless you sit down and work through this weakness very carefully, you'll not be much better than people playing other bidding systems. This is why I think 8-12 opening systems are perhaps still in a too premature stage of development to claim superiority. Quoting: hrothgar>Some of the better theorists actually argue that the high variance intrinsic to the>8-12 HCP makes this too wide a range for a limited opening bid playing a light>opening system and suggest restricting the range to 8-11 HCP based on>problems with the constructive rebid structure. That is an interesting point. However, since I was talking competitive bidding and you're talking uncontested auction, I fail to see what it has to do with my criticism of 8-12 openings. Quoting: The_Hog>You also appear to be unfamiliar with continuations after a limited opener. I>assume you have never played one, played against one or studied one. You assume wrongly. I've played precision for 10 years, some of them with relay methods. I even have the impression I told you this before! Perhaps you're just used to deal with people who like to talk about things they don't know anything about? Quoting: hrothgar>8-12 HCP and 11-14 HCP are both 5 HCP ranges, however, 8-12 has a much>larger standard error. The WEAKER range, has GREATER variance in hand>strength., in direct opposition to Whereageles rather grandious assertion. I have never made such a statement. My claim, which has absolutely nothing to do with your 'rather grandious conclusion', was: the stronger the hand, the more independent it is. INDEPENDENT, NOT SMALLER VARIANCE IN STRENGHT. Independent means that it requires less knowledge of partner's hand to make a bid. Anyway, I rest my case. I merely wanted to point out a problem with 8-12 openings. I wasn't asking people to agree with me. That being said, I'm not available anymore to discuss irrelevancies. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Free Posted August 3, 2004 Report Share Posted August 3, 2004 I think you guys are talking next to eachother instead of with eachother... Whereagles is talking about intervention. If you open with 8-12 HCP you can't bid like if you had 11-15, since you're weaker and may run into serious penalties. This might be a disadvantage somehow, but you get lots of advantages! Opening light means the opponents can't use their system to find their supurb contract, since they are already going in defense. This is also a design concept from Moscito: open as much as possible, and responder takes safely as much bidding space away as possible. It's not opener who bids first, it's responder! He knows the potential of both hands (not exactly, but pretty much) and tnx to a good response scheme you can make sure that even opener can compete with his 8HCP... So I think you're still wrong whereagles, but since I never played a strong pass, I can't really compare. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarceldB Posted August 3, 2004 Report Share Posted August 3, 2004 Dear Whereagles, You have started your first comment with:"I've toyed with the idea of forcing pass systems once" You are receiving serious and helpfull comments from the side of f.e. The Hoq, Hrotgar and myself (all well-known with the in and outs of a WOS) and now writing in your last post: "Anyway, I rest my case. I merely wanted to point out a problem with 8-12 openings. I wasn't asking people to agree with me. That being said, I'm not available anymore to discuss irrelevancies. " is not the correct way imho to treat this discussion - started by you by the way - and in particular when it's becoming "hot" for you and is more or less a brevet of inability to be frankly. In the framework of your statements it is not astonishing that you have reveived such kinds of comments. But this takes not away that I will try again to explain in short the merits of a WOS (with Pass=13+), because there your confusion/misunderstanding starts already. All has be written down extensively by Slawinski in the past (1967 and later) and underneath the "highlights": PARADOXES:•12-18 Opening Zone: - 12 points strenght to believed to be enough to have a chance to make the contract- security from disastrous defeatComment: Why make an overcall with f.e. AJ973, Q, 764, QJ82 ? which is far more dangerous because opponents exchanged information already •Opening Pass (0-11): - large range of strenght and shape- high frequency, low agressiveness •Signalling the distribution:- info about opening suit, no info side suits- no difficulty for opponent NEW AXIOMS:•Leadership principle- the leader should be the player who first received info about partner's - the leader should be the stronger hand (with common exceptions , s/void etc.) •Maximal activity principle- find your own (best) contract- obstruct opponent's bidding- avoid info exchange by opponent •Maximal frequency principle- most frequent hands to be treated with utmost care by your system- majority of opening bids reserved for the 8-12 zone • WITH ABOVE KNOWLEDGE IN MIND • : •Distributional uniformity principleIn case partnership's strenght is small or there is an interference- info about all the suits as much as possible- leadership principle ways? - short suit openings- or major-oriented- ambigous openings- guessing principle- unbalanced preparation principle (in case of interference you know more (guess)about opener's hand)- opening bid gives as little info as possible to the opponent- alternative lenght priciple (f.e. short or long in a specified suit) I stop now because I would not like to voilate copyrights eventually (although I have written permission from Mr. Slawinski to publish in my website the basics/schemes of Regres).----------Dear Whereagles To proceed now f.e. in the 8-12 zone with an 1 Heart opening:a simple "sayc"-like/natural way of thought that: suit= Hearts and no further side info, combined with the few openingbids you have suggested will not bring your partner (= Leader, I prefer to proceed furtheron with R= Relayer, and RR= responder to relays) any progress. Some examples of the past (if out of date now is not so important for this moment) for the 1H opening 1st/2nd seat , 8-12 points:- 4+ card Hearts and unbalanced- shortness (singl. or void) spades- 3-4c H, 0-2c S, 3-4cC, 5-6c D- shortness in a minor- 3-4c H, 0-2c S- 2-suiters (54, 55 or 64) H/C or S/D- 4-5 c H and no shortness- 3-4c H and no shortness at most 4c S (H equals/longer as S)- 0-2c H OR 6c H- 3-5c H, 0-2c S OR 3-4c H, 5c S In this way R will be much more able to proceed, or in case RR proceeds eventually R will have a good view. Trusting to have you informed herewith and moreover hoping to have convinced you that further bidding is based totally on these "standard" basics/style of WOS. If not, I can not alter it, but anyway then you will know what you are missing. Best regards, Marcel Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimG Posted August 3, 2004 Report Share Posted August 3, 2004 8-12 HCP and 11-14 HCP are both 5 HCP ranges, Are you sure about that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hrothgar Posted August 3, 2004 Report Share Posted August 3, 2004 8-12 HCP and 11-14 HCP are both 5 HCP ranges, Are you sure about that? Oops.Major Oops. make that 11-15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inquiry Posted August 3, 2004 Report Share Posted August 3, 2004 8-12 HCP and 11-14 HCP are both 5 HCP ranges, Are you sure about that? Oops.Major Oops. make that 11-15 hehehehe... :-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtfanclub Posted August 4, 2004 Report Share Posted August 4, 2004 Hi all, My replies follow, by "order of arrival" :D Quoting: jtfanclub>I just think it's the reverse.>If my partner opens 1H 11-15 and I'm considering game, I have about 9 hcp.>If my partner opens 1H 8-12 and I'm considering game, I have about 14 hcp.>Therefore, I should better be able to make a unilateral decision after the 8-12>opener. Well, a stronger responder will indeed be able to act more independently. But I was thinking more of opener, though: the stronger opener is, the more likely he is to be able to do helpful free bids in competition. That's my whole point: 8-12 openings leave opener with little chance to help responder if the bidding escalates. Unless you sit down and work through this weakness very carefully, you'll not be much better than people playing other bidding systems. This is why I think 8-12 opening systems are perhaps still in a too premature stage of development to claim superiority. I don't think it matters. I honestly don't care about the hands that are sure of game, or sure of not having game. Any system within reason can handle those even with interference. The tricky ones are trying to figure out if you have game after interference. Assuming 24 hcp for game (humor me for a moment), the tricky hands therefore are: One side opens 8-12, and responder has 12-15. One the other, one side opens 11-15 and responder has 9-12. In effect, all you've really done is swapped which hand opens, strong or weak. There's a couple of reasons to do it this with weak: it's generally better for the weak hand to show as much possible and then have the strong hand place the contract than the reverse, for the independence reason you've already mentioned. Also, the 8-12 opener is very powerful for interference when you don't have game. The biggest disadvantage of 8-12 hcp openers I've seen is that the 13-14 hcp hands get the shaft. Either they get thrown into the strong bid, or they get one generic bid (like 1D almost any 13-14) for themselves. Either way, you're much worse situated for finding game (assuming interference). Meanwhile, if you don't open 8-10 point hands, odds are you didn't have game anyways, so it's less harmful. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted August 6, 2004 Report Share Posted August 6, 2004 Free: Yeah, I agree 8-12 openings can be made very effective if you work out good competitive gadgets (gadgets which should, among others, 'fix' the problem I mentioned). I'm convinced that, on isolation, 8-12 openings with gadgets are in the end superior to 11-15 or 12-20 openings. But, since you need to fit the 8-12 openers into a complete bidding system, that can force some changes. MarceldB: So sorry, but I do not recognize you any authority to tell me how I should conduct my discussions. Now, I appreciate and thank you for your effort to provide us all with interesting information on weak opening systems (I knew most of it, actually). However, I won't comment on that info since it seems to bear no relevance for the original problem. jtfanclub: I see what you mean. One point: if you open 8-12, responder rates to have around 10 points. Therefore, he's likely face a competitive decision more often than systems that open 11-15 or 12-20, so precise gadgetry becomes more important. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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