Your turn

[Keeper1]

[hv=d=w&v=b&s=sj652ht6dt82cqt63]133|100|Scoring: MP

1♥ x 3♥ P

4♥ x P ?[/hv]

 

Before you call, you ask and find out that 3H shows "Heart support, 10+ points"

[gwnn]

pass, i am balanced

 

at mps the question is whether if I pull, am I improving my score more than 50% of the time? to me it seems that the answer is clearly no.

 

The most likely way of getting a + score on this hand is passing and beating it thanks to partner's alleged good defence.

 

In IMPs I would also pass but there is the annoying possibility of a double game swing, particularly if partner has good clubs and very short hearts.

[mich-b]

4♠

Maybe we make , maybe they make, maybe both make , or maybe they bid 5♥.

[hanp]

at mps the question is whether if I pull, am I improving my score more than 50% of the time? to me it seems that the answer is clearly no.

That is not the question at all.

 

Suppose we think that 4HX will produce -790 all the time, that 4S will deliver -800 or worse about 60% of the time and -500 or better about 40% of the time.

 

If the other table is in exactly the same position then we should pass. But -790 will typically be a very bad matchpoint score, and by bidding 4S we have 40% chance of also beating the pairs that passed out 4H.

 

Of course I'm pulling the numbers out of my hat, but hopefully the argument against your rule is convincing. As for your other sentence:

 

pass, i am balanced

 

I don't buy that either. The auction doesn't sound like partner has a balanced 20-count, it sounds like partner has quite a good takeout double. I opt for 4S.

[gwnn]

You just made my sentence slightly more accurate, what's up with the "that's not the question at all"? Of course what you are saying is true but in practice my rule will reproduce the conclusions of your rule, more and more as the number of tables increases.

[Phil]

I don't buy that either. The auction doesn't sound like partner has a balanced 20-count, it sounds like partner has quite a good takeout double. I opt for 4S.

Neither do I.

 

Passing aims for the small target of 1) 4♠ going for 800 or more or 2) 4♥ getting set and 4♠ not making.

 

4♠ simply needs to stay at 200/500 or the opponents to misjudge and push. And news flash: They haven't doubled us yet. If LHO has long hearts and the defensive tricks are split between our opponents, they may think they've won the board by 'pushing' us to 4♠ when 4♥ was a semi-bluff.

 

They have given us the last guess. Lets throw it back in their laps :)

[gwnn]

I just don't think that target is so small, partner is not balanced but he can still be 3163 or thereabouts-we are not even guaranteed of a spade fit and we are almost sure not to have more than an 8 card spade fit. We could have a gorgeous minor fit but we will not find it. Furthermore I definitely don't think they will be often bidding over this 4S so them saving wrongly is not such a big factor. Also my feeling is that 4S is unlikely to make and I am not sure about 4H. So I really feel like the "usual three ways to win" is at least a little misleading since two of them are not as likely as they usually are.

[peachy]

Assume opponents know what they are playing and are explaining correctly their agreement about 3H, then 4S is obvious to me. Had 3H been "weak" or "pre-emptive" the problem is a little more difficult and passing then is a good option.

 

As it is, opponents have the majority of points and a great trump fit. IMO, hardly a time to pass for penalty with a hand that has the possibility of 1/2 defensive trick opposite partner who has singleton heart and spades. If their methods for 3H in this auction are *10+ with heart support*, they might even take the push, for better or worse... Most folks have other ways to show various limit raises and use they use 3H as weak. This is a similar hallmark for not-so-strong players as a Stolen Bid would be. I hope I won't have offended anybody, it is just what I have observed.