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World Cup 2010 Prediction Contest


Aberlour10

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I'd say Uraguay has 30-40%. 25% is too low for any team at this stage.

 

But betfair doesn't estimate the chance that a team will advance, it will estimate how many people will want to bet on a certain team given some odds. Using that, 25% might be reasonable.

Betfair doesn't estimate anything - the price is market-based. Which of course comes out to the same thing as you say.

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Here's my prediction for the rest of the tournament, I asume the order is chronological and the match for 3/4th place is included:

 

57) 1

58) 2

59) 2

60) 2

61) 2

62) 2

63) 2

64) 1

 

I can leave for a holiday in France now, where I won't touch a computer for at least two weeks.

I won't discuss football there either. :(

This works pretty good :)

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63) Uruguay - Germany

2

 

64) Netherlands - Spain

1

 

I have a problem with the Final game:

Before the World Cup started I predicted that Netherlands will win. Now I think Spain have a better chance , but I will stay consistent with myself...

Unless I change my mind :(

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It seems nobody here expects Uruguays victory, I voted for Germany too but I am not convinced about it. The match for third place has its "own rules"....in Germany it counts not much, not for the team and not for the fans. Players may have disappointment about SF still in their heads...and in the legs, while for Uruguay it would be another great success. They will fight for sure.
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It seems nobody here expects Uruguays victory, I voted for Germany too but I am not convinced about it. The match for third place has its "own rules"....in Germany it counts not much, not for the team and not for the fans. Players may have disappointment about SF still in their heads...and in the legs, while for Uruguay it would be another great success. They will fight for sure.

Didn't Germany win the 3rd place match with a convincing 3-1, in the last World Cup in 2006?

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It seems nobody here expects Uruguays victory, I voted for Germany too but I am not convinced about it. The match for third place has its "own rules"....in Germany it counts not much, not for the team and not for the fans. Players may have disappointment about SF still in their heads...and in the legs, while for Uruguay it would be another great success. They will fight for sure.

Didn't Germany win the 3rd place match with a convincing 3-0, in the last World Cup in 2006?

Yes, but they played in Germany in front of 60.000 own fans, that is a bit different situation...

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One of the german co-coaches has just said... it can happen, that they let play several guys who did not play in this WC at all...as a reward for their excellent work...

 

So I definitely change my vote to>>

 

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