Table Feel or Percentage Line?

[BrianEDuran]

Hi all

 

Maybe this is simple and I'm just over thinking the situation (which seems to be a constant problem of mine).

 

First round in a six board club swiss, playing the best team in the room, against two good player, that don't play together a lot, playing percision you decide to open 2C with...

[hv=d=s&v=b&n=sqjxxhkqxdtxxcatx&w=shdc&e=shdc&s=st98hajdqxckj98xx]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

2C!-(X)-XX-(2D)

p-(p)-3C-float

 

LHO has some crazy moments which seem to work out well for him, and RHO is solid up the road player. There was a short hitch before the 2D bid.

 

LHO leads A and K of diamonds, lefty playing the 9 and low. LHO plays a spade to his parnters ace then spade back to the king and a spade, all following. After the ace of clubs, everyone follows, and now I think you have two chooses; LHO- 3-4-4-2 & RHO=3-4-4-2 or LHO=3-5-4-1 & RHO=3-3-4-3

 

Thoughts on which one seems more likely? Why?

 

 

Thanks

Brian

[paulhar]

What are their signals, and if the second card is remaing count, how low is low? (Also, two D9's in hand - might matter for signals)

[jtfanclub]

I'm not an expert, so feel free to ignore me.

 

Seems to me you have LHO and RHO reversed at the end. Surely RHO wouldn't bid 2D with 5 hearts. I'm also confused about who has which spade honors. If West only has one of the three, I would think that he'd have bid 2H, not X, with 5 hearts and 3 spades, therefore he's 4-3.

 

That's all I can think of.

[BrianEDuran]

Ok, fixed those little problems with the post.

 

Their signals are standard. And nothing else is marked on their card. (I don't know what the nine of diamonds ment)

 

As for why would LHO double with 3-5 in the majors, well that is the question. But maybe his heart suit was headed by the ten. Also if he is 3-4 in the majors, then his partner has 4 hearts, and decided to bid 2D instead of 2 Hearts. Why would he do that when his best diamond can only be the J?

 

Brian

[paulhar]

About the 2H overcall, I think that double is much safer with 3-5-4-1 with weak hearts than 2H. Especially if it turns out to be a partscore hand where West can go down 100 per trick if pard shows up with something like Qx of hearts (or worse!) opposite his 5 small.

 

Assuming you get no information with your questions about carding, and totally have to guess what their carding is:

 

you're playing the opps for:

Hand 1:

W: Kxx xxxxx AKJx x

E: Axx xxx xxxx Qxx

 

or

Hand 2:

W: Kxx xxxx AKJx Qx

E: Axx xxxx xxxx xx

 

While West might double on either one, East might bid 2H sometimes with the second hand. Also, the first one is a safer double; West might well pass with the second hand vulnerable.

 

However, there's also the possibility of:

Habd 3:

W: Kxx xxxxx AKJ Qx

E: Axx xxx xxxxx xx

which votes in favor of the drop.

 

Also, your wildman West might compete to 3D with the first hand, not being intimidated by the redouble.

 

After all this, I still think it's about a 50-50 guess unless you can determine something from their carding.

 

But wait! There's the defense! Why did West try to give East a spade ruff? Perhaps West can rule out the spade lead costing a trick, which it would if declarer had Ax and East had four spades. If West doesn't think East can have four spades, then East probably doesn't have four hearts either. So, now we're down to Hand 1 or Hand 3. Since Hand 1 is more likely to be dealt, I finesse.

[inquiry]

First question, can EAST have 6 diamonds and be thinking about jumping in diamonds. The answer is no. If west had AK doubleton diamond they would ahve lead like KA and in an effort to get a diamond ruff. So diamonds are 4-4 or 3-5, with EAST having 5.

 

Spades are 3-3 you know this.

 

Hearts? It is inconcevable that East has five hearts as well, after all, he bid a JACK high suit at best. So East has 4 heart or less. So now turn your attention to what you know about WEST. If he the kind of guy who would make a take out double to 2C holding this powerhouse ?? ♠Kxx ♥Txxx ♦AKJ ♣Qxx ? That is THE best hand he can have for his double of 2♣ if holding four hearts. I don't know what East was thinking about, but I don't believe WEST hold this hand. Instead, I think West's hearts were too "poor" to show, but he has five, mabye even six of them. The two hand I play for or West

 

Kxx

Txxxx

AKJ

Qx or

 

Kxx

Txxxxx

AKx

x

 

I will determine which one by playing three rounds of hearts. If east shows out on third round, I play club to Ace then hook east for the club queen if not show.

 

Once east is known to have 3♥, the most likely dis in clubs is 2-2, so I play for that. Could west have three clubs to the Q and doubleton AK diamonds in this case? Well, yes but since you say good players he would have cashed the spade king and exited small spade for diamond back at trick 3/4 for possible trump promotion. Anyway, you would have to know more about his bidding to dererming if he bids like that.

 

Ben

[jtfanclub]

I've been thinking about this one a bit more...

 

If West had 4 diamonds and 1 club, why didn't he bid 3D? Not only does the LOTT indicate it, but it just makes sense. Besides, it makes.

 

I just can't imagine Xing with 6 hearts and 3 spades. I just can't.

 

So that leaves two possibilities for East.

 

One is 4432 with 4 diamonds and 4 hearts, but if he has that, then why bid 2D? Why not pass and let P pick the suit?

 

That just leaves 5332 with 5 diamonds and 2 clubs. That gives West 5332 as well, with 5 hearts and 2 clubs. It's the only thing that fits the bidding. So I play for the drop.

 

If this were MP's, it would be easy. A lot people will end up playing in 3D or 3H by the opps. If West has a singleton, it makes, so making or down one are both good boards. If West has a doubleton, they go down, so you need to make to get a good board. So I play for the drop. IMPs, it seems tougher to me.

[1eyedjack]

If West had 4 diamonds and 1 club, why didn't he bid 3D? Not only does the LOTT indicate it, but it just makes sense.

3D may or may not be right bid but I don't think that it is justified on LOTT grounds. You do not appear to have much of a major suit fit (with equal length in D and major you would expect partner normally to bid major). You do not reckon to have more than an 8 card D fit (it is possible you do, but there is no evidence for it. Partner with extra D's COULD have bid 3D over 3C on LOTT grounds).

 

So the LOTT looks to be about 17 at best. North could bid 3C on just an 8 card fit on LOTT grounds.

 

I reckon doubler has 3-5-4-1 shape. I would double with that shape and I don't regard it as flaky.

[Free]

2 possible scenarios imo:

1) LHO doubled with 10HCP and a stiff ♣

2) LHO doubles with 12HCP and ♣Qx

 

Usually I'd play for the drop. We both have no singletons, and if LHO has a singleton he's the only one.

 

BUT there's more information. They didn't find their 8 card ♥ fit! With 4-4♦-♥, I think RHO should bid 2♥ instead of 2♦. This certainly means his ♦s are longer than his ♥. He didn't try to give his partner a ♦ ruff, so I suspect LHO has at least 3♦s. LHO didn't give our RHO a ♠ ruff, so these are divided 3-3 imo. The distributions imo are

LHO 3-5-3-2 or 3-5-4-1 (here only 10HCP)

RHO 3-3-5-2 or 3-3-4-3

 

I don't know HOW crazy this guy can be, but I think V at imps Doubling with only 10HCP risking to end up in a lot of ♠ in a 4-3 fit is absolute madness.

 

I still play for the drop. But since you didn't figure out the 5332 hands, I suspect finessing is the winning line ;)

[inquiry]

Forget guessing blindly guys, forget "perentage play" verus table feel.. As I said earlier, this is a discovery situation.

 

Spades are 3-3...

East will not have five hearts...

Diamonds are no worse than 2-6 and are probably 44 or 35.

 

Win the spade and cash two hearts and lead third one from dummy.

 

Does East show out? If so his hand is 3-2-5-3, and you will hook him in clubs after cashng the club ACE (in case LHO has stiff Queen).

 

Does EAST follow? If so, he is either 3-3-5-2 or 3-4-4-2, and you play for drop of the queen, and you REALLY should doubt the second distribution, because with 44 in the reds he would bid 2he rather than 2di I think. But no matter. The situation you are protecting against is 3-2-5-3 and cashing hearts show you how to paly clubs... If East ruffs the thrid heart, you overrruff with no problem....

 

It really isn't that hard... as yoda would say.. "don't guess, know"

 

Ben

[Trpltrbl]

I am playing 3 rounds of ♥ to learn some more.

East is likely to have 5 baby♥ and 3♠ and 3♦ or possible 4.

I am trying to learn as much as I can about the hand, and if I can't find out I will finesse against East, simply because West made TO X and is more likely to be short.

 

Mike :D