just a little MP 3nt

[gwnn]

[hv=d=e&v=n&n=saj6htdt8xxxct8xx&s=sqtxhkj8daqjcakjx]133|200|Scoring: MP[/hv]

 

East opens 2H and you bid 3NT ending the auction. Opponents are good, they are definitely better than the field or gwnn.

 

yea sorry, LHO leads a heart, you can be pretty sure it is 6-3 with LHO having xxx.

RHO plays the Q.

 

edited to include the opening lead :P

[georgeac]

edit: nvm i assume a heart.

[gwnn]

yea sorry, LHO leads a heart, you can be pretty sure it is 6-3 with LHO having xxx

[mikeh]

I assume there was a low heart lead, and RHO played the Queen.

 

I'd still place RHO with the A: his play of the queen is normal: apart from anything else, he is catering to his partner holding Jxx.

 

Answering these questions is always difficult, because so much depends on what they do.

 

I'd probably play a top club (the King because they are more apt to give honest count on the K than on the Ace) and then AJ of diamonds... I will drive out the diamond K, which establishes 9 tricks, but of course I want more.

 

If rho wins the diamond, I'll hook the spade for (I assume) 2 hearts, 3 spades, 4 diamonds and two clubs....and might make 12 tricks if they don't cash the heart A and the club Queen drops. But what if he leads a club back, rather than a heart? I'd like to know what clubs they each played on the first round. I'd need to be att to know whether to play for the drop or the hook...after the hook loses they have an easy cash to hold us to 10. But if I play for the drop and it doesn't, I only get 10 tricks anyway.

 

if lho wins the diamonds...he'll probably play a heart...and what does rho do?

 

Say he wins and clears the suit...what am I pitching? I'd throw clubs, then cash the last diamond (if needed) in hand.

 

Since my only entry to dummy is in spades, I have to decide whether to take the finesse, risking failing in a cold contract. Such is life at mps.

 

I play what I think are the odds....cash the second top club just in case...and then hook the spade.

 

Say rho ducks the second heart. Does that make it more or less probable that he holds the spade King?

 

The obvious answer is that if he ducks, it is because he lacks an entry....but, as they say....that's what he'd expect us to think....so a good player will try to play as if he lacks the spade King.

 

What can I do? I can cash the high club and if the Queen drops, cash 2 more....and the last diamond...that's 7 minor suit cards and 2 hearts, so we are down to a 4 card ending and dummy has 3 winners......I'd need to be at the table, not that my table feel is any good....but I'd take my 11 tricks....all I was entitled to, and maybe rho stiffs his spade K.

 

If the club doesn't come down, I hook the spade.

 

Sorry if that is too rambling. it takes a lot longer to write this than to play it :P

[gwnn]

This posting reminds me of

 

I know nobody else answered

If you wanted more discussion, you should have started by posting a wrong or incomplete analysis.

 

from http://forums.bridgebase.com/index.php?showtopic=26498 :( Thanks Mikeh for your nice analysis

 

hidden hands here. don't look from the magic angle whence all hidden text is visible.

 

 

 

LHO had

xxxxx

xxx

Kxx

Qx

 

RHO had

 

Kx

AQxxxx

xx

xxx

 

I played the spade finesse at trick 2, then found the club queen doubleton but still a pretty poor score. I need better instinct or, what would be better, no instinct, just simple reasoning.

 

 

[pooltuna]

[hv=d=e&v=n&n=saj6htdt8xxxct8xx&s=sqtxhkj8daqjcakjx]133|200|Scoring: MP[/hv]

 

East opens 2H and you bid 3NT ending the auction. Opponents are good, they are definitely better than the field or gwnn.

 

yea sorry, LHO leads a heart, you can be pretty sure it is 6-3 with LHO having xxx.

RHO plays the Q.

 

edited to include the opening lead :(

win and lead the Q♦ is my near gut reaction (i.e. I actually thot for 30 sec) :)

[Jlall]

Win and drive out the diamond and the figure out what to do