kgr Posted May 30, 2010 Report Share Posted May 30, 2010 [hv=d=s&v=b&n=sakj732h9dkqt8cq4&s=s86haq84d9643cjt3]133|200|Scoring: MP[/hv]p-(p)-1S-(p)1NT!-(p)-2C!-(p)-2D-(p)-2S-AP 1NT=Not forcing, but can include 3cS and 4-7 pts2C=strong, asking2D=weak, nothing to say LHO leads ♥3 (3th or 5th) and I played ♥A and took the ♠-finesse.According to analysis in Jack it is better to play ♠A iso of finesse in trick 2.♠A=117.8♠J=89.2Can someone explain why? Is playing from the top always better if you only have one entry? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted May 30, 2010 Report Share Posted May 30, 2010 I am not sure what your numbers mean, but I believe they might have something to do with the fact that spade fienese risks a diamond ruff, and even more, it risks not scoring ever the 4th diamond if the defence forces you constantly even with trumps 3-2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluecalm Posted May 30, 2010 Report Share Posted May 30, 2010 According to analysis in Jack Interesting, can you say more about how such analysis works ? I may consider buying the program :) Can someone explain why? Is playing from the top always better if you only have one entry? Finessing is better considering ♠ alone for sure. Relevant layouts are: Qxx to xx (6 cases)xxx to Qx (4 cases)xxxx to Q (1case)Qxxx to x (4cases)QT9xx to void (1case) In remaining 16 (all 2-3 breaks, 1-4 breaks and 0-5 breaks) it doesn't matter) You gain a trick by finessing in 11 of those while you gain a tricks by playing on top in only 5 of those. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwnn Posted May 30, 2010 Report Share Posted May 30, 2010 kgr's numbers are the average score you get on the board. If you make 140 50% of the time and 110 50% of the time, that would be 125. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluecalm Posted May 30, 2010 Report Share Posted May 30, 2010 What are the constraints you give for defender's hands ?Is it possible to define that they don't have 7 card major for example ? And that they would lead stiff ♦ if they had it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pooltuna Posted May 30, 2010 Report Share Posted May 30, 2010 [snip]Well if Jack is right(the program not the card) then can someone please explain how I screwed up the chart that follows LHO RHOhold hold Play J tr lost Play A tr lost Which winsQT954 - 2 3 J winsT954 Q 2 1 A winsQ954 T 1 2 J winsQT54 9 1 2 J winsQT94 5 1 2 J winsQT95 4 1 2 J wins954 QT 1 0 A winsT54 Q9 1 0 A winsT94 Q5 1 0 A winsT95 Q4 1 0 A winsQ54 T9 0 1 J winsQ94 T5 0 1 J winsQ95 T4 0 1 J winsQT4 95 0 1 J winsQT5 94 0 1 J winsQT9 54 0 1 J winsQT 954 0 0 No differenceQ9 T54 0 0 No differenceQ5 T94 0 0 No differenceQ4 T95 0 0 No differenceT9 Q54 1 1 No differenceT5 Q94 1 1 No differenceT4 Q95 1 1 No difference95 QT4 1 1 No difference94 QT5 1 1 No difference54 QT9 1 1 No differenceQ T954 1 1 No differenceT Q954 2 2 No difference9 QT54 2 2 No difference5 QT94 2 2 No difference4 QT95 2 2 No difference- QT954 3 3 No difference- - 30 36 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwnn Posted May 30, 2010 Report Share Posted May 30, 2010 pooltuna the spade suit in vacuum is best played small to jack but there are other factors which make the Ace better (see Fluffy's post). Jack was talking about the whole hand and the contract, not just the spade suit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ONEferBRID Posted May 30, 2010 Report Share Posted May 30, 2010 Apriori, West holds Q x x 30% of the time whereas East holds Q x 20 %......hence "eight-ever" . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ceeb Posted May 30, 2010 Report Share Posted May 30, 2010 I don't get it either. First, it's MP not IMP. So spurning the % play in trumps is investing some fraction of a trick, even after discounting because of the possible ♦ ruff. Being forced out of trumps doesn't seem to me a legitimate concern. If trumps are 3-2 or the ♦J comes down, you can't be tapped out. If trumps are 4-1 and the ♦J is a loser, then you have 6 losers and are down anyway -- except if it's ♠Qxxx onside, then only NOT finessing allows those bad things to happen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgr Posted May 31, 2010 Author Report Share Posted May 31, 2010 - I'm not sure if I can enter in Jack that it is MP's, so yes the calculation is done in IMP's.- In Jack you can after every card do double dummy analysis (ctrl-D) or analyze the position (ctrl-A).- Analyze the position will deal 1000 possible hands and do a double dummy analysis on them. I'm not sure what it takes into account for the possible hand, but it somehow looks at the bidding and play. (Eg if I lead from KJ52 the 2 or the 5 then that will give a different result; because Jack will think I have 3 or 4 cards in that suit). The analyze position will show and adapt the result after every hand until it has done 1000 and you can interrupt before if it is already clear. It is amazingly fast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted May 31, 2010 Report Share Posted May 31, 2010 with only 1000 hands analyced I'd say you got a set that favours ♠A because the difference seems very huge to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Free Posted May 31, 2010 Report Share Posted May 31, 2010 I think the difference between going down and making the contract = or +1 is a big factor here. If you go down it's -100, if you make +110 or +140. So your average goes down a lot for rare situations like ♠Q stiff behind or a possible ♦ ruff. You can lose a ♠ pretty safely and still make your contract, but not if you lose it while it's not necessary. Oh btw, you can even go down a lot more than 1 if there are multiple ♦ ruffs! Can you try this NV please? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgr Posted May 31, 2010 Author Report Share Posted May 31, 2010 with only 1000 hands analyced I'd say you got a set that favours ♠A because the difference seems very huge to me. Most of the time when I do this the result will remain the same if I do it again. 1000 seems to be a big enough sample.A bit more samples:SK: 115.2 SJ:85.9SK: 116.6 SJ:88.3SK: 117.4 SJ:87.5SK: 117.6 SJ:86.4Remark: If RHO plays on trick 1 the ♥7 iso ♥2 then the figures change a bit (low is encouraging):SK: 111.3 SJ:84.5SK: 111.3 SJ:87.8SK: 113.0 SJ:85.9(BTW: LHO had ♠Q singleton) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgr Posted May 31, 2010 Author Report Share Posted May 31, 2010 Can you try this NV please? NV (probably closer to MP's)SK: 118.3 SJ:101.1SK: 119.6 SJ:103.8=> It could well be that SJ is the best play at MP's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Free Posted May 31, 2010 Report Share Posted May 31, 2010 Can you try this NV please? NV (probably closer to MP's)SK: 118.3 SJ:101.1SK: 119.6 SJ:103.8=> It could well be that SJ is the best play at MP's. Since the average score for ♠J goes up and the score for ♠K remains pretty much the same (slight increase), I suspect that the frequency of going down has a considerable influence on the average score. If the J wins you get a good MP scoreIf the J loses you get an average or poor MP scoreBluntly speaking you might conclude that the J will be a good MP score around 50% of the time, will be average 25% and will be poor 25%. This means it's a good MP choice to play the J (62.5%).At imps, if you go down your average sinks to the ground, at MP it doesn't. The fact that Jack doesn't count in MP but in points explains the difference in play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ceeb Posted May 31, 2010 Report Share Posted May 31, 2010 At imps, if you go down your average sinks to the ground, at MP it doesn't. The fact that Jack doesn't count in MP but in points explains the difference in play.This may explain Jack's thinking, but I don't think it is correct analysis. Finessing loses the contract only if it loses, the opponents then get a diamond ruff, and they still score two diamond tricks. Unlikely the opening leader (East) has a singleton diamond, or will manage to shift from ♦AJxxx. Hence the danger is substantially the chance that West can win a ♣ shift and get a ♦ ruff. That's 4-5% assuming the imaginative ♣ shift from East. Finessing gains the contract when ♠Qxxx(x) is onside and there are two natural ♦ losers. Counting only ♠Qxxx, that's about 7.5%. Hence even if overtricks were negligible compared to the big fat partscore bonus :( I'd finesse as the best chance to make 2♠. But really, even the overtricks from finessing may well overwhelm the small chance of a ♦ ruff defeat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fluffy Posted May 31, 2010 Report Share Posted May 31, 2010 hey ceeb, I said this earlier, but I'll remind you, if you have 2 diamonds losers, spades are 3-2 and ♥K is offside 5th, you get tapped and you do not ever make your 4th diamond. losing 1♠, 2♣ 2♦ and the last trick in hearts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ceeb Posted May 31, 2010 Report Share Posted May 31, 2010 hey ceeb, I said this earlier, but I'll remind you, if you have 2 diamonds losers, spades are 3-2 and ♥K is offside 5th, you get tapped and you do not ever make your 4th diamond. losing 1♠, 2♣ 2♦ and the last trick in hearts.How so? If trumps are 3-2, we're 3 longer in trumps than the opponent. If we let them in 3 times with ♠Q, ♦A, ♦J and get tapped each time, we'll have equal length (all trumps gone assuming we pulled trumps when able) and we'll be on lead. At that point we cash the long ♦. Hence the only cost from being tapped out is a possible extra down-trick when ♠ are 4-1. (I did see your first message in which you mentioned generally the danger of being tapped and I acknowledged that claim in my initial analysis.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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