Two lines

[kenrexford]

[hv=n=sa10xxxhaxxdaxcj9x&s=skqjxxhkxdkxxcaqx]133|200|[/hv]

 

Found this layout interesting.

 

You end up in 6♠. Red-suit lead. Spades split.

 

What line do you take to maximize your MP score? Are there options? Is there a way to avert a play by one of the two opponents to ruin one of your possible lines?

[gwnn]

Interesting that you found this hand interesting. I eagerly await the developments. I know this is not a useful reply but in case nobody else replies maybe it is useful to know that someone thought it was, at first look, not necessarily interesting.

[bluecalm]

Yeah, looks easy. Probably I am missing something.

So you eliminate red suits and take ♣ finesse. Then it's a guess if it's better to play for ♣Tx or ♣Kx. This guess can be improved by observing their discards.

Also if we knew the bidding we would know how likely it is that ♣ would be attractive from Tx or Txxxx is and infer something from W making other choice.

 

Anyway, for now I am also await developments.

[wank]

no point eliminating bluecalm - you have all the tricks except the club king - you're just ruffing your menaces.

 

 

so option 1)

draw trumps, queen of clubs, 3 rounds of diamonds then hope for an unlikely heart/club guard squeeze.

 

option 2)

draw trumps, queen of clubs, 3 round of hearts then hope for an unlikely diamond/club simple squeeze

 

either way you can try to read it and drop the right honour.

[Free]

The simplest way is to just cash and ruff the red suits and determine how you'll handle the ♣: Kx by East or Tx by West.

 

Another plan of attack is to ruff a ♦ at a certain point and lead the ♣J (for 13 tricks we need ♣K onside) to transfer a menace to West (♣T). After that we may have a ♥-♣ squeeze against West using a vienna coup. This depends on which red suit is lead. Chance of this succeeding is ♣Tx by West or ♣Txx(+) in West with 6+♥, so the simplest line is better percentage wise. Obviously it's way nicer if this line works...

 

Similar to plan B is to ruff a ♥, and take the ♣ finesse followed by ♣A. You may have a ♣-♦ squeeze against East now. This is probably better than line B, since you know where ♣K is, while you don't know who has ♣T for plan B.

[Free]

Wank, you can't squeeze East in ♥-♣, he's behind the menaces. So playing to ♣Q won't work unless East has ♣Kx.

[wank]

no, but you can guard squeeze LHO if he's got the 10 if clubs and 6 hearts. obviously that's worse odds though because you need the 10 in the right hand with the 6 card sui. But depending which red suit is led and the spots, plus a discard or 2 on spades, you might be able to hazard a guess who's got the 6 card suit before you commit yourself by taking the red ruff

[Free]

no, but you can guard squeeze LHO if he's got the 10 if clubs and 6 hearts. obviously that's worse odds though because you need the 10 in the right hand with the 6 card suit.

Right, although you might as well take my 2nd line then :lol:

[bluecalm]

no point eliminating bluecalm - you have all the tricks except the club king - you're just ruffing your menaces.

 

Right. Now I see why this hand may be interesting.

[kenrexford]

The responses so far convince me that this is interesting, because no one is seeing the other line, which may be the only good line if you change one card and may still be a decent line with the actual cards as they are. My take is hidden:

 

 

Elimination is a distinct option, for a non-obvious reason. If you eliminate out, it may well seem that catching Kx to the right is a low probability, or even impossible. However, doubleton Kx or 10x to the left may be possible.

 

Suppose, for a moment, that dummy did not have J9. Does this create a legitimate option for 12 tricks? Sure.

 

Eliminate out all cards and play the club Ace. RHO is caught in a problem when he has Kx. If he holds the King, the contract makes. If he ditches the King, the contract is set whenever his partner has Q10. Unless Declarer has AQx and is jobbing him, tossing the King cannot hurt. So, job LHO.

 

If, however, on this layout you eliminate out ending in dummy and lead a club to the Ace, planning to rise for a jettison job, RHO can save the day by tossing the 10 (if he has it).

 

This line fails when LHO has K10 tight to the left, but so does the hook.

 

This line works a LOT against Kx to the left, and it works against stiff King. It fails against 10x to the left.

 

So, it seems there are options. When dummy has J8x, this line seems clearly superior (if LHO probably has a doubleton) and seems automatic against J7x or worse.

 

[Phil]

I was about to post what Ken's hidden text said so there's no sense repeating it. Dude, wait more than 2 1/2 hours before you post a spoiler!

 

Another point about J8(max)- x or worse in dummy - another possibility is to play low toward dummy. This should also tempt LHO into ducking from Kx or even Kxx. If we can steal an early club trick, we then might be able to squeeze LHO in hearts / clubs when LHO is 2623 for instance.

 

Warning - terminology nazi rant: this isn't a guard squeeze. Its a simple with a transferred menace. A guard squeeze has two menaces in addition to the guard menace.

[kenrexford]

I was about to post what Ken's hidden text said so there's no sense repeating it. Dude, wait more than 2 1/2 hours before you post a spoiler!

 

Another point about J8(max)- x or worse in dummy - another possibility is to play low toward dummy. This should also tempt LHO into ducking from Kx or even Kxx. If we can steal an early club trick, we then might be able to squeeze LHO in hearts / clubs when LHO is 2623 for instance.

 

Warning - terminology nazi rant: this isn't a guard squeeze. Its a simple with a transferred menace. A guard squeeze has two menaces in addition to the guard menace.

Nice catch! I posted prematurely because people seemed bored. LOL