Quick Poll

[awm]

Matchpoints, all white.

 

LHO opens 1♣ (standard bidding) and partner overcalls 1NT (the usual 15-18). You hold:

 

♠K7

♥5432

♦KQ42

♣832

 

How hard do you push for game?

[bluecalm]

I clicked GF by accident. My choice is to pass.

I consider it clearcut. I often force to game with 8 count in this situation but this is about as bad 8 as it gets.

[MarkDean]

Those are some really bad spots. I still game force: partner should know a lot about the hand from the bidding.

[jjbrr]

stayman and invite

[andy_h]

Stayman and invite in all cases.

[peachy]

If partner had opened 1NT, this would be an invite. When the location of most of the HCP is known, partner is normally able to take 9 tricks. At matchpoints, the choice is (for me) between invite and game, at IMPs game always. The additional factor in favor of game is that many play an overcall 1NT as 15+ to 18, while opening NT is 15- to 17 and virtually never 18.

[bluecalm]

If partner had opened 1NT, this would be an invite.

 

I don't agree with this assessment at all.

 

I do agree that 1♣ opening make it more likely that we have game. I think it's still a pass though. This hand is just too awful.

[the hog]

I clicked GF by accident. My choice is to pass.

I consider it clearcut. I often force to game with 8 count in this situation but this is about as bad 8 as it gets.

This is a clear invite and I don't think it is close at all. I do think the 15-18 point range is too wide, however.

[y66]

I voted bid stayman and invite. Would not mind at all if my partners are more aggressive with this hand.

[whereagles]

GF, on grounds that pard, even if minimum, will have an easy time locating the missing high cards.

[billw55]

I clicked GF by accident. My choice is to pass.

I consider it clearcut. I often force to game with 8 count in this situation but this is about as bad 8 as it gets.

eh? I can think up plenty of 8 counts worse than K and KQ. I bet this hand gets me two entries for marked finesses.

 

Clear invite to me. Particularly if the NT range includes 18 (as indicated), I think pass is very bad. You will pass a possible 26 point game with the high cards marked? That must be wrong even at matchpoints :)

[ArtK78]

Stayman and invite.

 

These hands tend to play well because all of the opponents' assets are in one hand.

 

I have to admit, though, that if partner's range were 15-17 instead of 15-18 I would probably pass. I want to play in game opposite 17 or 18 when one opponent has everything except for a possible stray J or Q.

[gwnn]

To prove to myself that I am an expert, I will invite in NT but force to game if partner has 4 hearts. I like my relatively pleasant concentration and my xxxx in hearts will be much better if I can transform them into trumps. I think if I wanted to prove that I am a superexpert I would mention here that my 8 of clubs is very good in no trump since it may establish another stopper in partner's hand, but I have never reached that level of thinking before, not even as a means of pretentiousness.

 

BTW I don't automatically overcall 1C with 1NT with 15 just because I have a stopper (I am not saying that the other posters here are) so my optimistic game forces are sometimes realistic.

[kfay]

MATCHPOINTS!!!!!!!!!

 

 

I invite... :ph34r:

[mikeh]

I think that it is right to pass at mps against good defenders or in a generally strong field.

 

Passing probably asures us of a plus (unless they start with a spade through and run 5 or 6 spades on us). Inviting risks turning that plus into a minus more ways than it stands to turn it into a bigger plus.

 

We can find our hearts and maybe fail at the 3 or 4 level. We can play 2N and fail. We can play 3N and fail.

 

We can find hearts and make a partial that scores the same tricks as notrump.

 

Or we can find hearts, and outscore notrump, or bid and make a game.

 

Since my partners generally accept invitations aggressively, for me, the chances of turning a plus into a minus seem slightly higher than the chances of improving our score. But it is close. Give me as little as a couple of 10's and I'd bid.

 

And I'd bid in a weak field or against weak defenders.

 

How's that for hedging?

[Phil]

I think we need a sim.

 

I would invite FWIW.

[bluecalm]

I think we need a sim.

 

Anybody into simuls besides me ? I obviously did mine before answering the question but it would be interesting if someone else took a stab at this.

[awm]

I suppose a simulation is likely to depend on exactly what a 1NT overcall means to you.

 

Personally, I don't think there are any balanced 15s that I would pass in this auction. Certainly there are some that are more suited to some other call (double, even a four-card overcall). In fact, I occasionally overcall 1NT here on 14-counts. But I've seen others say that 1NT should be at least a "good 15" so presumably there are some 15s that don't qualify.

 

However, the hand given is my hand; partner is probably a bit more "down the middle" than I am for whatever that means. Certainly no reason to think our styles would match.

[bluecalm]

However, the hand given is my hand; partner is probably a bit more "down the middle" than I am for whatever that means. Certainly no reason to think our styles would match.

 

Yeah, that's the problem with simuls.

I did 16-17 (hand which accept invite) with 2clubs A, K or 3+clubs at least Q or 4clubs JTxx+; no 5card majors, no 6 diamonds. The result was something like 32 or 36% for 3NT. I don't remember exactly.

 

I can repeat those with your assumptions if you are interested.

[quiddity]

I wonder if this is one of those times where we should bid stayman and then pass if we find a heart fit - we expect to outscore those who stop in 1NT and don't want to jeopardize it by trying for a close game.

[655321]

I don't feel strongly between inviting and game forcing.

 

A factor against GF with a heart fit is our relative club length; opponents potentially have a club ruff.

 

Yeah, that's the problem with simuls.

I did 16-17 (hand which accept invite) with 2clubs A, K or 3+clubs at least Q or 4clubs JTxx+; no 5card majors, no 6 diamonds. The result was something like 32 or 36% for 3NT. I don't remember exactly.

 

I can repeat those with your assumptions if you are interested.

 

Wow, I completely disagree with these assumptions.

 

Why no 18 counts, why no 6 diamonds, and how many tricks do heart contracts make opposite 4 card hearts? Also many of the hands with Ax or Kx of clubs might be takeout doubles. Not saying it is obvious which constraints to set up, it isn't, but if you are going to say you think passing is clearcut (and you think this purely as a result of your sim) that you should be very confident your constraints are realistic.

 

Also, you didn't say, but I assume you also constrained West to have a 1♣ opener.

[nige1]

GF, on grounds that pard, even if minimum, will have an easy time locating the missing high cards.

Agree with WherEagles at IMPs but at matchpoints, I'm uncertain. Your ♠ holding is a worry but you have no wasted values in ♣. If you invite, you are more likely to be doubled.

[Hanoi5]

Stayman and invite, except when a heart fit is uncovered in which case I'll go for the red Major game.

[mike777]

I think that it is right to pass at mps against good defenders or in a generally strong field.

 

Passing probably asures us of a plus (unless they start with a spade through and run 5 or 6 spades on us). Inviting risks turning that plus into a minus more ways than it stands to turn it into a bigger plus.

 

We can find our hearts and maybe fail at the 3 or 4 level. We can play 2N and fail. We can play 3N and fail.

 

We can find hearts and make a partial that scores the same tricks as notrump.

 

Or we can find hearts, and outscore notrump, or bid and make a game.

 

Since my partners generally accept invitations aggressively, for me, the chances of turning a plus into a minus seem slightly higher than the chances of improving our score. But it is close. Give me as little as a couple of 10's and I'd bid.

 

And I'd bid in a weak field or against weak defenders.

 

How's that for hedging?

yes

[bluecalm]

Why no 18 counts, why no 6 diamonds, and how many tricks do heart contracts make opposite 4 card hearts? Also many of the hands with Ax or Kx of clubs might be takeout doubles. Not saying it is obvious which constraints to set up, it isn't, but if you are going to say you think passing is clearcut (and you think this purely as a result of your sim) that you should be very confident your constraints are realistic.

 

I don't think so only based on sim. Quite the contrary. I think the hand suck because of lack of intermediates and Kx of spades and is not worth an invite . This is why I didn't say anything about sim in my original post.I just made it because I always make a sim when it's possible to make at least some reasonable constraints. I find it fun. I am not that much into double dummy results.

If constraints are loose enough (ie. they allow for more hands than would bid 1NT but doesn't reject many which does) you can quickly develop a feeling about your decision by just browsing through those hands and seeing how good 3nt would be.

 

Back to double dummy results. This situation is difficult for sim because the reason you mentioned. It's very hard to define 1NT range (and even harder to define hadns which accept the invite). From my experience though it doesn't matter that much here if you allow for 6 diamonds here or not or what exact club holdings are possible. I didn't allow for 4 hearts becaue I wanted to see how many tricks we take in NT if we play in NT.

 

Anyway, I always say that if someone is interesting in sim results. Just post your constraints here. I will make it for you and post results :)