First lead problem

[bluecalm]

World Championship final. Your opponents are Lauria - Versace.

Your partner Eric Rodwell.

 

♠J98 ♥J643 ♦K43 ♣KJ2

 

We are vul. RHO deals and bidding goes:

 

1♥ - pass - 2♥ - pass

2♠ - pass - 4♥ - pass

 

2♠ is natural; invite+ 1♥ is 11-22 natural.

Your lead ?

 

(I am posting this because Meck led something different than I would have and my very simplistic simulations confirmed he was right, still it's kinda surprising to me).

[billw55]

I guess the ♣2.

[ArtK78]

♣2 certainly seems like the right lead. Most likely to produce something useful, and least likely to give up a trick that matters.

[pooltuna]

World Championship final. Your opponents are Lauria - Versace.

Your partner Eric Rodwell.

 

♠J98 ♥J643 ♦K43 ♣KJ2

 

We are vul. RHO deals and bidding goes:

 

1♥ - pass - 2♥ - pass

2♠ - pass - 4♥ - pass

 

2♠ is natural; invite+ 1♥ is 11-22 natural.

Your lead ?

 

(I am posting this because Meck led something different than I would have and my very simplistic simulations confirmed he was right, still it's kinda surprising to me).

seems like the 2♣ looks like it requires the least from partner to be a winner.

[cherdanno]

I would choose the ♣2 but I am very interested in your simulation and Meck's choice.

[bluecalm]

No more takers ? :lol:

Meck led 8♠.

 

My choices were ♣>♦>♥>♠

I thought we need to attack after this auction hoping to force declarer.

I also wouldn't be surprised if ♥ scores high double dummy as I learnt that leading from xxxx of trump in similr situations is usually very effective. Here we have Jxxx but double dummy it doesn't make that much of a difference (thus I think this lead is overrated in simuls).

 

I tried many constraints for Lauria's hand (14-19hcp 5-4, 13-16 5-4 or 12-14 6-4, etc etc.) and for Versace's I tried 8-9 with doubleton somewhere or 7-8 with 4card support etc. but ♠ always came first with♥/♣ being 2nd choice.

 

Full hand from 2003 bb final:

 

[hv=d=e&v=n&n=sq74h2dj752caqt63&w=skt5hk85dqt96c874&e=sa632haqt97da8c95&s=sj98hj643dk43ckj2]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

On actual layout probably every lead would have worked so it's not that interesting (♦ would allow to make it double dummy but not in actual play I believe)

[billw55]

So, why is the spade best? Just least likely to give something away, with ops not showing a threatening side suit? Or is there more to it?

[hanp]

Double dummy simulations always favor passive leads. They are very unsuitable for lead decisions.

 

Having said that, I did a simulation and the following leads set 4H most often:

 

54 times: ♣2

51 times: ♣J

50 times: ♥3, 4

49 times: ♣K, ♦3, 4, ♥6

48 times: ♠8. 9

 

In my simulation RHO had 15-16 HCP with exactly 4 spades and 5 hearts. LHO had either 6-9 HCP with 4 hearts or 7-10 HCP with 3 hearts, also at most 3 spades and no shortness.

[billw55]

Double dummy simulations always favor passive leads. They are very unsuitable for lead decisions.

 

Having said that, I did a simulation and the following leads set 4H most often:

 

54 times: ♣2

51 times: ♣J

50 times: ♥3, 4

49 times: ♣K, ♦3, 4, ♥6

48 times: ♠8. 9

 

In my simulation RHO had 15-16 HCP with exactly 4 spades and 5 hearts. LHO had either 6-9 HCP with 4 hearts or 7-10 HCP with 3 hearts, also at most 3 spades and no shortness.

Interesting. Your result suggests (a) that a spade isn't really best, and (b.) there isn't much difference on any lead.

 

bluecalm? Can you be more specific about your sim results?