Doblo!!!

[kfay]

w/w

 

AQxxx xx Q J109xx

 

Opps bid uncontested, starting on your left.

 

1♥-1♠

2♦-2♥* slow

2♠-4♥*insta

[Hanoi5]

After winning AQ (in case you can) do you give your pd a ruff and hope he has a trick or switch in desperation looking for the setting trick?

[bluecalm]

I am happy to double.

My guess is that most very good players won't double though.

[mikeh]

double at imps, pass at mps.

 

I expect double to work less than half the time (tho I don't claim any mathematical basis for this). LHO may hold the spade King...as one example...also it seems reasonable to infer that LHO has an extra value 3=5=4=1 and rho a near limit raise with 4(5)=3=x=y.

 

So I don't double at mps, because that is a top or bottom swing, and I feel that it is more likely to be a bottom than a top.

 

But at imps, if they make, I lose 5 imps, while if my double creates a plus from a minus, I win 10 imps. So, on hands where it makes a difference, double is 2 to 1 on the imp odds.

 

of course, on a lot of hands, partner is leading his putative stiff anyway, since he listened to the same auction and no other lead is likely to be attractive.

 

Edit: at imps, the double comes with an additional low probability upside....give partner the diamond Ace, and maybe we are collecting 300 when pass would be only 100 at best.

[bluecalm]

Edit: at imps, the double comes with an additional low probability upside....give partner the diamond Ace, and maybe we are collecting 300 when pass would be only 100 at best.

 

Or 500 if he has J9x of hearts for example :)

[karlson]

I'd double this too.

[655321]

I wouldn't double this one.

[dburn]

As a general rule, at IMPs (or for money) one should double only if one judges that the contract is more likely to go two down than it is to make. I don't see any reason to suppose that this is the case here.

 

And yet... if I don't double, partner might not lead his stiff spade, whereas if I do double, he will (or at least, he should). Still, even if he does, they're not down yet. Would pass at the table, but would listen with unconcealed admiration to the successful doublers in the bar afterwards.

[OleBerg]

I consider this extremely close.

 

So I choose the option that will not upset my partner if it backfires.

 

With my regular partner, that would be pass.

 

Should I one day face a partner that didn't care, I'd double, just for the fun of it.