Paranoia

[Phil]

[hv=d=s&v=n&n=sk62hqt932dj732c4&s=saqt83hakdat9cj62]133|200|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

You reach 4♠ after LHO overcalled 2♣ and RHO raised to 3.

 

LHO leads the ♣K (A from AK) and switches to the ♦4 - RHO plays the K).

 

Onward.

[pooltuna]

[hv=d=s&v=n&n=sk62hqt932dj732c4&s=saqt83hakdat9cj62]133|200|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

You reach 4♠ after LHO overcalled 2♣ and RHO raised to 3.

 

LHO leads the ♣K (A from AK) and switches to the ♦4 - RHO plays the K).

 

Onward.

well gut reaction is AK♠, AK♥, club ruff, Q♥

[bluecalm]

A♦. ♣ ruff. A♥. ♣ Ruff. K♠. Q♥. It wins even E has all 5spades and we don't concede our chances for and overtrick.

[billw55]

Agree, ruffing two clubs in dummy looks easy, losing one club, one diamond, and maybe one trump.

 

Maybe this made the forum because east raised with two clubs and overruffed the third round?

 

edit: hmm maybe not so simple, returning to hand could get a heart ruffed, then a diamond ruff ... maybe better to take the second club ruff with the king, then play ♠AQ?

[Phil]

Maybe this made the forum because east raised with two clubs and overruffed the third round?

No - thats not why its here.

[mikeh]

This made the forum 'cos it ain't quite as easy as the earliest posts suggest.

 

I wouldn't worry about a club overruff, but I would worry about hearts 5-1, or spades 4-1 or diamonds 4-2. No single one of these should beat the contract, but any two of them could prove troublesome.

 

I haven't given it a lot of time (where is the 15 minutes another thread suggested we could all have?), so here goes:

 

We can play to ruff one club, pull trump and concede 2 clubs and a diamond. I put this at about 70%.

 

We can play to ruff two clubs, using hearts to get back to our hand. This loses to 5-1 hearts and 4-2 diamonds unless spades are 4-1: we'd lose a club, a diamond, and 2 red suit ruffs. We'd survive a 5-1 heart break, with any 4-1 or 3-2 spade break, if diamonds were 3-3.

 

It seems to me that the odds of a 5-1 heart break are less than the odds of a 4-1 (non stiff J) trump break, and we have non-trivial extra chances even when hearts are 5-1 (LHO with say 3=1=3=6).

 

So I will ruff a club, return to the heart A, ruff a club, spade King, heart to hand. If it wins, then unless spades were 5-0, I can lose at most a club, a diamond and a trump.

 

If the J appears under the spade K, on my right, I could overtake but I wouldn't...if an opp did this with 1 or 5 hearts and Jx(x), he didn't 'get me', because I was going down if he'd played low.

 

If the 9 appeared on my right.....now it is more interesting....it may be right to overtake and cash the Q, but if spades are 4=1 (or he was cute from J9xx), I may be going down when hearts were behaving. I place LHO with at least 3 diamonds: if he has only 5 clubs, he could be 4=1=3=5, but I am safe there even if he ruffs the heart K. He could be 3=1=3=6, and I think that more probable..but I am safe then as well: no diamond ruff. I am down on LHO being 2=1=4=6.

 

Oh well..I am a simple player: I don't overtake the spade K.

 

What have I missed?

[Phil]

Thanks Mike - good analysis as usual. I played it almost identical to you but I don't want to spoil things for others.

 

Is there another line you'd consider?

[bluecalm]

It seems to me that the odds of a 5-1 heart break are less than the odds of a 4-1 (non stiff J) trump break, and we have non-trivial extra chances even when hearts are 5-1 (LHO with say 3=1=3=6).

 

So I will ruff a club, return to the heart A, ruff a club, spade King, heart to hand. If it wins, then unless spades were 5-0, I can lose at most a club, a diamond and a trump.

 

Maybe I was to quick to discard those possibilities but it seems very likely that LHO would lead/switch to ♥ if he had a stiff there. He is also unlikely to be 6-5 in round suits as he (probably) would overcall with some kind of 2suiter.

If hearts are 4-2 collecting 10tricks should be easy after ruffing 2clubs, returning to dummy with K♠ and playing Q♥ to guard against bad trump/♦ break.

Are the assumptions about ♥ too optimistic ?

[Trumpace]

What about immediate Spade to K and back to A and then cash heart AK?

 

If spades split 3-2. If second heart is ruffed, they have no good return, you can ruff one club and throw another on HQ, losing 1C, 1S and 1D.

 

If spades split 4-1 (likely with RHO), heart AK rate to cash. You ruff club and play HQ. if RHO ruffs, you overruf, lose 2 clubs and 1 D. If RHO plays low, you throw club and lose at most 1 spade, 1 D and 1 C.

 

Not sure how good this is.

 

(EDIT: I see pooltuna tried the same line)

[dellache]

At the table, I'd just play the ♦9 back.

 

West will take that and :

- play a 3rd Diamond ? East ruffs and has to play a Club back (otherwise claim). Now heart to Ace, club ruff, ♠King, Diamond from dummy, claim.

- play a Heart ? I take it, Draw trumps, and claim ;

- play a Club ? Ruff, and play Diamond yourself to count the suit.

 

I guess there's something obvious I've missed.

[Phil]

This was played quickly at the table -

 

♣ ruffed

♥ to King

last ♣ ruffed, and the ♠K...9...?

 

Time stood still as I tried to work out if LHO was 4=1=3=5 (let the ♠K hold, and either ♥ to hand letting LHO ruff or ♦ to hand, take the tap, ♠AQ, claim.

 

Or if LHO was 3=1=4=5 which requires overtaking and just conceding a trump + ♦.

 

I concluded this whole mess could be avoided with a very simple line -

 

3. ♣ ruff

4. ♦ to hand.

 

I don't see much of a counter here. If RHO ruffs a diamond, it doesn't cause a lot of pain. Its opening yourself up to a heart ruff or a possible tap that needs to be your concern.

 

A diamond back immediately isn't quite as good I don't think, because now the defense can lead the stiff heart. You win, ruff the club, and expose yourself to two ruffs. Or if you decide to draw trump, you have issues with a 4-1 split.

[dellache]

A diamond back immediately isn't quite as good I don't think, because now the defense can lead the stiff heart. You win, ruff the club, and expose yourself to two ruffs. Or if you decide to draw trump, you have issues with a 4-1 split.

Unlikely ?

Say West takes the ♦Q and leads his stiff Heart. I can play ♠Ace and Spade to King. If East follows suit, I claim. Otherwise, I get back to Hand with my Diamond, ruff a club, and play the master Diamond from dummy.

 

True, I go down in the unlikely (but possible) case where West had J9xx x Qx KQJxxx.

Nice hand !