Which is better?

[shyams]

[hv=d=w&v=b&n=sqt4hq3dt632ckqj7&s=s963ha2dakq94ca95]133|200|Scoring: XIMP

Bidding:

West North East South

Pass - Pass - Pass - 1♦

2♦* - 3♦ - Pass - 3NT (end)

 

You could not open 1NT because that would show 12-14

2♦ is both majors

 

West agonises over his lead for a while and then tables ♠2. Opps play standard leads (4th best vs NT etc).

[/hv]

[pooltuna]

[hv=d=w&v=b&n=sqt4hq3dt632ckqj7&s=s963ha2dakq94ca95]133|200|Scoring: XIMP

Bidding:

West North East South

Pass - Pass - Pass - 1♦

2♦* - 3♦ - Pass - 3NT (end)

 

You could not open 1NT because that would show 12-14

2♦ is both majors

 

West agonises over his lead for a while and then tables ♠2. Opps play standard leads (4th best vs NT etc).

[/hv]

Not sure if your LHO is playing a non standard version of michaels but the 2♣ looks like an attempt to be tricky but he would have had to look into your hand to guess the ♠ position. My guess is that he either has only 4♠ or is playing partner for H or Hx in which case the H is a 2 to 1 favorite to be the A or K rather than the J.

[andy_h]

With AKxxx Kxxxx West might have opened the bidding so his agonisation was probably based on which major suit to lead as he holds HJxxx KJxxx (where H=A/K) or something alike. Thus, I play low.

[Little Kid]

If LHO doesn't have the ♥K, ducking can't win because RHO would raise to 3♥s on the ♥K, A/K♠ and 4♥s. So assume LHO does have it, which seems sensible anyway given the bidding and lead hesitation. I would play the ♠Queen next for a couple of reasons:

 

1) If RHO gets in with the ♠A/K I'm pretty sure any RHO will find the ♥ switch after getting on lead with Hxx (or even Hx if LHO is trying to be clever with his lead). I won't have time to set up my ♠ trick after a ♥ switch, so playing the Q now wins against Jxx and Jx♠.

2) If the lead is true, LHO seems to have only 4♠s when his 2♦ bid presumably shows 5-5. Perhaps some better ♠suit quality may cause some people to treat it as a 5card suit? This could explain the hesitation on the lead too, because LHO has a better ♠ suit but longer ♥ suit.

4) The ♠ lead also seems odd if RHO has A/K♠. Why would LHO lead a ♠ when HJxx♠ and Kxxxx/KJxxx♥? RHO might even have bid 3♥ with say the ♠A, some shape and the 4♥s he is known to have.

5) If LHO did bid a 4-5 hand showing a 5-5 hand, he might not be a very strong player. So maybe would not open hands like AKxx♠ and KJxxx♥s because it doesn't have enough hcps and is also less likely to bid 2♦ on weaker hands like KJxx♠ and Kxxxx/KJxxx♥.

 

I see people false card on the lead VERY rarely, so for me the Q would be quite obvious.

[Phil]

1) If RHO gets in with the ♠A/K I'm pretty sure any RHO will find the ♥ switch after getting on lead with Hx (or even H if LHO is trying to be clever with his lead). I won't have time to set up my ♠ trick after a ♥ switch, so playing the Q now wins against Jx and J♠.

Good arguments, but did you happen to notice the contract is 3N?

[andy_h]

If LHO doesn't have the ♥K, ducking can't win because RHO would raise to 3♥s on the ♥K, A/K♠ and 4♥s. So assume LHO does have it, which seems sensible anyway given the bidding and lead hesitation

If our opponents aren't great, what makes you think RHO will bid 3♥ ♠Kxx ♥Kxxx? It is "only" 6 points after all.

1) If RHO gets in with the ♠A/K I'm pretty sure any RHO will find the ♥ switch after getting on lead with Hx (or even H if LHO is trying to be clever with his lead). I won't have time to set up my ♠ trick after a ♥ switch, so playing the Q now wins against Jx and J♠.

What does this mean? If we play the Q and RHO wins the K/A and we follow low, why would East consider anything but returning a spade? We have 10 top tricks after all.

2) If the lead is true, LHO seems to have only 4♠s when his 2♦ bid presumably shows 5-5. Perhaps some better ♠suit quality may cause some people to treat it as a 5card suit? This could explain the hesitation on the lead too, because LHO has a better ♠ suit but longer ♥ suit.

If LHO has a 4 card spade suit, doesn't that increase the chance of our RHO bidding over 3♦? RHO has now 4-4 in the majors. But anyway, this is irrelevant because if the spades are breaking 4-3 it doesn't matter what we play as the defence can only cash 4 tricks. The important factor we have to consider is when spades are breaking 5-2 and we need prevent them cashing 5 tricks.

4) The ♠ lead also seems odd if RHO has A/K♠. Why would LHO lead a ♠ when HJxx♠ and Kxxxx/KJxxx♥? RHO might even have bid 3♥ with say the ♠A, some shape and the 4♥s he is known to have.

5) If LHO did bid a 4-5 hand showing a 5-5 hand, he might not be a very strong player. So maybe would not open hands like AKxx♠ and KJxxx♥s because it doesn't have enough hcps and is also less likely to bid 2♦ on weaker hands like KJxx♠ and Kxxxx/KJxxx♥.

I like your numbering. My previous point stands, that we should worry about 5-2 spades and not 4-3. If West is not a strong player and has 4-5 like you said, then I'm sure they would have led from their longest suit hearts unless they have been reading Paul Marston's articles. And besides, I still think the hesitation is still more likely based on LHO guessing which 5-5 suit to lead rather than a 4-5. Since ♠HJxxx is twice as more likely than ♠AKxxx, it seems clear to play LHO for the Jack. Who knows, maybe LHO with AKxxx Jxxxx would have overcalled 1♠ or RHO might've bid 3♥ with ♥Kxxx.

[Little Kid]

If EW are an established partnership playing 2/4 leads I'm happy to look like an idiot if the ♠s are 5-2. I'll play low if these are just randoms on BBO though, they never lead 2/4 regardless of their profile. If LHO tanks and then false cards on the lead I am fooled :P

[awm]

I'll play low.

 

(1) If LHO has only four spades, or if LHO has all three of the AKJ, or if LHO has only one of the AKJ then our play doesn't matter and 3NT is cold. The only time that we can go down is if LHO has exactly two of the top four honors and five-card length, and we guess wrong.

 

(2) There are equally many spade holdings of AKxxx, AJxxx, and KJxxx. So a priori, it is twice as likely that LHO has the jack than that he has both the ace-king. This strongly favors playing low.

 

(3) There is extra information that LHO did not open the bidding. If his spades are AJxxx or KJxxx, then it's virtually impossible to construct opening hands for him (assuming he doesn't open 5-5 nine counts). However, if his spades are AKxxx then there are many potential opening hands (i.e. give him KJxxx of hearts and most would open, or even KTxxx of hearts and many would open). While he certainly could have AKxxx of spades and five bad hearts, the effect of his initial pass is to further reduce the relative odds of AKxxx.

 

(4) There is extra information that RHO did not raise. However, RHO is unlikely to have much in terms of values here and it's not clear how aggressively these opponents bid on balanced fitting hands without much strength. I don't think this is a very strong inference either way.

 

(5) There is extra information that LHO "agonized over his lead." It's possible that this is a tough decision whether to lead high or low from AKxxx of spades. However, I think it is much more likely that this is a tough decision as to which major suit to lead, which tends to imply similar looking holdings in the majors (i.e. KJxxx in both, or AJxxx and KJxxx). Thus I don't think this changes the odds in any substantial way towards going up with the queen.

 

(6) I don't really like the 3NT bid -- what if partner's spades had been two little? Note that bidding 3♥ (stopper-showing, forward-going) would reach 3NT from the north hand, which is utterly cold.

[shyams]

[hv=d=w&v=b&n=sqt4hq3dt632ckqj7&w=sak752hj98654dct2&e=sj8hkt7dj875c8643&s=s963ha2dakq94ca95]399|300|Scoring: XIMP[/hv]

When dummy went down, South spent less than 5 seconds to call low. East put up the Jack, checked all cards twice when it won and returned the ♠8. Down 1.

 

At the table, North (N/S are a husband/wife pair) was annoyed by South's bid (3NT) and "thoughtless" play to trick 1. I agree I found the 3NT bid odd, but thought the play was correct albeit unlucky this time. The voting so far is almost unanimous that the play of a low card was superior.

 

The more interesting feature of this deal is that E/W are cold in 4♥ as the cards lie. The contract was bid at 3 tables, doubled & making on all 3 tables.

a. Would you open the bidding with the West hand? At the 1-level?

b. How would you reach 4♥?

[Fluffy]

low has best percentage, but also note than ♠Q might create a defensive mistake at trick 2.

[gwnn]

a. No I wouldn't open on the 1 level.

b. Nohow.

c. Life is tough and you can't make it easy, you have to sigh and get on with it.

 

:blink: