Your call?

[cnszsun]

[hv=d=n&v=n&s=sxxhk10xxdxxcaj10xx]133|100|Scoring: IMP

1♥-5♦-??[/hv]

[rogerclee]

These spots are always annoying but I think bidding 5/5 with this hand is just too much. I would double or pass depending on my read on RHO's aggressiveness about bidding at the 5 level.

[P_Marlowe]

X.

 

We play it as penalty, i.e. the risk that p bids on is low.,

but pass is certainly not unreasonable.

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

[aguahombre]

We might have found a level where a double is considered penalty. A first on BBO?

[whereagles]

Maybe. I'll dbl too.

[Jlall]

I'd just bid 5H in their face, it's going to be really hard for them to double and maybe they'll bid 6D and maybe we'll actually be able to make.

 

If they double I'll be really sad, and it's possible I go -100 or -200 instead of +50 or +100 which hurts.

 

Anyways I'm an expert and I bid 5 over 5 vul you can't double me!

[helene_t]

Pass. Second choice 5♥. Don't understand double.

[gwnn]

We might have found a level where a double is considered penalty.  A first on BBO?

It is not penalty of course but partner will not pull unless he has extraordinary shape. I know that some people think this is an obvious caveat to calling a double penalty but I really do not think so. And it is a continuous function. To simplify this post let me just illustrate it with the trumps you need to pass out partner's double and the likelihood of that happening (fictitious percentages and trump holdings):

1h-(1S)-x: Kqj9x .2%

1h-(2D): Aqj8 1.7%

1h-(3D): Jxx (and no good bid) 15%

1h-(3S): xx 34%

1H-(4D): x 64.3%

1H-(5D): could be a void as long as you are not a good 6-5 with great hearts or strong to pull to 6C or etc 87.9%

 

So where do you pull the line? Is there a point of pulling a line at all?

 

takeout

takeout

takeout

takeout

____________THIS IS THE POINT OF NO RETURN THE PERCENTAGE PASSED 73.15%!!!!! ENTER AT YOUR OWN RISK

penalty

penalty

etc

[gwnn]

I think penalty doubles are like these:

 

1NT-(5m)-x here you know partner is unable to pull a 5 level double. You can x safely with as little as KQx of clubs say.

2S-(3H)-x partner preempted and all decisions are yours unless you directly involve him like a 4H bid encourages him to bid 5 over 5 (this is only one possible agreement)

doubles of retarded bids like

1D-1N

2C-3D

p-(3H)????? He's retarded!!! Double away.

[mcphee]

OK I am a sucker and try 5H some times we make it. Some days they dble and you have a regret or so, maybe even feel real panic, this hand is more offensive.

[aguahombre]

Gwnn: I will try to make my jokes a little more obvious, next time.

[gwnn]

Please do, I still don't understand. I thought you implied that a sizable majority of BBF would consider this double as penalty and I thought it would be productive to speak up because I don't consider it a penalty double. Was I wrong about my starting point or I just should not have replied.

[aguahombre]

No, actually your scale of "degrees" on doubles at the various levels was probably quite valuable to a lot of readers; and that cannot be a bad thing.

 

Not being a big math whiz, I will assume the numbers are close enough to make your points valid. I know you said the numbers were fictitious, but they look about right to me for illustrating the concept.

[gwnn]

yep the numbers are fictitious but I tried to choose them in a way to be relatively close to reality, except I did not put in a lot of thought to it and certainly there is no statistical background to them.

[Phil]

Anyways I'm an expert and I bid 5 over 5 vul you can't double me!

Sign of the apocalypse - Justin bids 5 over 5 and Phil doesn't! And 5 Hearts! LOL

 

I think 5♥ is an interesting poker bid, but I think we are about a Q short (or a s/v in a pointed suit).

 

I'm much more comfortable passing and pulling a x to 5♥.

 

Anyone play FP here?

[jdonn]

It's pass that I don't understand. I bid 5♥ and don't find it that close a decision but I would much sooner double than pass!

[Winstonm]

It's pass that I don't understand. I bid 5♥ and don't find it that close a decision but I would much sooner double than pass!

I don't believe the admonission to "support with support" applies when the first chance to bid occurs at the 5-level.

 

I'm not saying you are wrong but there is something about bidding on with this hand that to me feels as if I have been goaded into it by opponent's action.

 

I doubt I will get doubled, but I also think I have more chance to go positive by defending than bidding. My hand is not so strong defensively that I expect to get a large number - so by elimination I have convinced myself to pass.

 

I know, big shock there. :)

[jdonn]

You have been goaded into it by yours opponents action. That doesn't make bidding wrong, it just means your opponents found a good time for their action.

 

Despite the fact most people aren't bidding, I think if you don't (at least at imps) you are REALLY missing the boat. It is not very difficult for both sides to be cold for game opposite completely innocuous hands for partner! Give partner something like Axxx AJxxxx x Qx and one side or the other is likely cold for game, or maybe partner has Axx of spades and Qxx of clubs and they could beat you on a spade lead but lead a stiff, club, etc. Make partner's hand a little better and, given the distribution (heart void) the opponents likely have it's very possible both sides make game.

[Jlall]

Anyone play FP here?

lol I hope not

[pooltuna]

Anyone play FP here?

lol I hope not

This is a required convention for this auction in the Bedlam Bridge Club :)

[Winstonm]

You have been goaded into it by yours opponents action. That doesn't make bidding wrong, it just means your opponents found a good time for their action.

 

Despite the fact most people aren't bidding, I think if you don't (at least at imps) you are REALLY missing the boat. It is not very difficult for both sides to be cold for game opposite completely innocuous hands for partner! Give partner something like Axxx AJxxxx x Qx and one side or the other is likely cold for game, or maybe partner has Axx of spades and Qxx of clubs and they could beat you on a spade lead but lead a stiff, club, etc. Make partner's hand a little better and, given the distribution (heart void) the opponents likely have it's very possible both sides make game.

My question is: considering the 5D bid, how much more frequently will partner hold an unbalanced rather than balanced or partly-balanced hand? If it strongly suggests partner will also be unbalanced then bidding on is surely right.

 

I simply not sure how accurate that presumption is. Hands like KJx, AJxxx, xx, Kxx and the like will do much better defending.

[jdonn]

So you are forced to guess at the 5 level in a high pressure situation, and naturally assume partner has the weakest possible hand with the flattest possible shape? You know what they say, extreme pessimism is winning bridge. I suppose if they open 3♠ on my right and I'm 1444 with a 17 count I should pass because partner is probably 4333 :)

 

Btw the 5♦ bid does indeed make it more likely than otherwise that partner is unbalanced.

[Jlall]

Btw the 5♦ bid does indeed make it more likely than not by a lot that partner is unbalanced.

fyp

[pooltuna]

It's pass that I don't understand. I bid 5♥ and don't find it that close a decision but I would much sooner double than pass!

Yep I vote with the Nite Owl in Cat's clothing

[hanp]

I ran a double dummy simulation with 400 deals.

 

I gave north 5+ hearts and 11+ points or 6+ hearts and 10+ points. Spades shorter than hearts and clubs or diamonds at most as long as hearts.

 

I gave east 8+ diamonds, no other restriction.

 

South has this hand.

 

5D made 20% of the time. 5H made 37% of the time. One of the two games made 51.2% of the time.

 

Partner is unbalanced (not 5332) 92% of the time. Dropping the requirements on east (but still giving us the same hand and using the same specifications for north) this number is 77%. In other words, the chance that partner is balanced drops from 23% to 8%.