What card do you play partner for ?

[sathyab]

Heard it from a friend. A hand from the NAOP event in Reno recently.

 

[hv=d=w&v=e&n=skqhkjt95dt54cq53&e=sat87643hqd97ca62]266|200|Scoring: MP

p p 1s 2d

2s x 3s 5c

p 5d all pass; S2 from 3/5 led[/hv]

 

Your ♠A survives much to your relief. You could play partner for a trump trick, ♥A or ♣K. But some of these constructions can be mutually exclusive as is often the case...

 

You look at the other CC and they do play 2nt as unusual over 1M.

[rogerclee]

The auction isn't consistent with declarer being 1354, but it's not impossible. 1255 is possible if he doesn't like to bid 2N on intermediate type hands or his diamonds are much better. 1264 is a very possible shape, and 1165 is also on the map. I don't think a heart is a serious candidate, declarer is extremely likely to have the HA for his bidding. A diamond accomplishes nothing and is not a serious choice, so it is just which club to play.

 

If declarer is 1354/1264 then a low club risks declarer losing no clubs, but breaks even with the CA when partner has the CK or a diamond trick.

 

If declarer is 1255 then a low club goes for the maximum against partner having the CK or Hxx diamonds, but risks allowing declarer to make 6 (x Ax AKQxx Kxxxx).

 

If declarer is 1165 then a low club goes for the maximum against partner having the CK or Ax of diamonds, breaks even if he has Kx. If he has no diamond honor or CK he probably has the HA and we will just get our 3 tricks.

 

Overall a low club seems best. CA is safe but is essentially playing partner to hold nothing for his r/w MP raise.

[pooltuna]

Heard it from a friend. A hand from the NAOP event in Reno recently.

 

Dealer: West Vul: E/W Scoring: MP

♠ KQ ♥ KJT95 ♦ T54 ♣ Q53   doc/images/table.png ♠ AT87643 ♥ Q ♦ 97 ♣ A62

p  p 1s 2d 2s x 3s 5c p 5d all pass; S2 from 3/5 led

 

Your ♠A survives much to your relief. You could play partner for a trump trick, ♥A or ♣K. But some of these constructions can be mutually exclusive as is often the case...

 

You look at the other CC and they do play 2nt as unusual over 1M.

Seems to me like you gotta go with the odds and hope declarer has 1264 hand with a high ODR ratio which means he should hold most of the ♣/♦ cards. Additionally partner rates to hold 5♥ and only 2/3 ♣ if you want to guess which one he is likely to hold, go with the longer suit. You could play the A♣ and see if you get an encouraging card. Of course declarer holding the K will do his damnedest to make it look encouraging :)

[bid_em_up]

Well, it is impossible that a diamond lead is required at this point to defeat the contract. If partner has a trump trick, it isn't going anywhere, and dummy doesn't appear to be ruffing anything. So a diamond lead can be ruled out.

 

If we return the heart Q, it's possible that declarer can win the Ace, draw trumps and play 4 more rounds of hearts, and the last spade honor, pitching all of his clubs for making 6.

 

The same thing might occur if we return a small club.

 

Since this was given as a matchpoints problem, I think it is best to cash the Ace of clubs at this point and then decide whether to continue clubs or switch to a heart, but for whatever reason, that wasn't one of the available choices!!

 

Since the club ace wasn't an option given, I will choose a heart to cater to declarer being 1-1 in the majors and able to pitch his losing heart on the remaining spade honor.

[Lobowolf]

And don't look too relieved when the A♠ holds...partner will be sad if he thinks you don't trust him to remember 3/5 leads.

[jdonn]

First of all I have no idea why a diamond is a candidate.

 

Anyway I play a low club because if partner had the ace of hearts (obviously with length) he would be very likely to lead it on an auction like this. Also if he has the ace of hearts we can always get it later and just lose the ruff but still set the contract, unless declarer is 1-1 in the majors.

 

The ace of clubs is a candidate but partner really can't give a clear signal since if he has Kx there is no signal he can make. I guess I really should play ace of clubs then another but I was going by your choices. I'm very unconcerned with taking the most tricks possible, I just want to set.

[billw55]

Would declarer really introduce clubs at the five level without the AKQ?

[bid_em_up]

Would declarer really introduce clubs at the five level without the AKQ?

He might if he was 1-1-6-5.

 

x x AKQxxx Jxxxx at favorable is certainly possible.

[gwnn]

Would declarer really introduce clubs at the five level without the AKQ?

the weaker a suit is, the more you'd like to play in it (as opposed to some other suit), provided partner has support.

[sathyab]

Well, it is impossible that a diamond lead is required at this point to defeat the contract.  If partner has a trump trick, it isn't going anywhere, and dummy doesn't appear to be ruffing anything.  So a diamond lead can be ruled out.

 

If we return the heart Q, it's possible that declarer can win the Ace, draw trumps and play 4 more rounds of hearts, and the last spade honor, pitching all of his clubs for making 6.

 

The same thing might occur if we return a small club.

 

Since this was given as a matchpoints problem, I think it is best to cash the Ace of clubs at this point and then decide whether to continue clubs or switch to a heart, but for whatever reason, that wasn't one of the available choices!!

 

Since the club ace wasn't an option given, I will choose a heart to cater to declarer being 1-1 in the majors and able to pitch his losing heart on the remaining spade honor.

I think you're right. In retrospect I should have included the ♣A as a choice. Josh alluded to it as well, except that he thought that playing the Ace would amount to playing a partner who did bid 2♠ r/w for very little.

[Free]

Always include an option "other", so we can play the most obvious card: ♣A

[wyman]

I'm so glad people started putting the ♣A on the table. I felt bad when I read the problem, said "club ace", and then looked at the poll options :P

[cherdanno]

If declarer is 1165 then a low club goes for the maximum against partner having the CK or Ax of diamonds, breaks even if he has Kx. If he has no diamond honor or CK he probably has the HA and we will just get our 3 tricks.

If declarer is 1165 without the ♥A and with the ♣KJ and no diamond loser, then we have to cash our three tricks right away. So a low club loses right away, and after the ♣A we still have to guess.

[jdonn]

I'm convinced back to low club. Still ace of clubs should be an option, as should anything if diamond is going to be an option.

[MFA]

♣A, then ♥Q unless partner plays one of the two smallest club spots (udca).

 

Knowing partner is important here. Would he tend to cash his ♥A, if he has it? Would he perhaps have opened 2♥ on Jxx, Axxxxx, etc. vul vs not?

I think we need a strong read in either of those directions, or a small club now is just much too big a play.

 

I pay off if partner has ♣Kx with a high spot, Kxx with two high spots, or specifically the two lowest club spots doubleton. But if I had to bet, I would bet on partner holding the ♥A. The suit lengths and the bidding simply makes that more likely than the ♣K. I would guess that x-x-AKxxxx-Kxxxx (with perhaps some 'meat' also in the suits) would be declarer's most frequent hand for a leap to 5♣.

[Echognome]

We know spades are 3-2-7-1 around the table.

 

We also know that declarer should have 10+ cards in the minors for his calls. That leaves declarer with 0-2 hearts.

 

If 2 hearts, potential hands for declarer are:

 

x Ax AKQJx Jxxxx OR

x xx AKQJx KJxxx OR

x Ax AQJxx KJxxx

 

I wouldn't personally call 5♣ on the auction with any of those hands as we rule out 3NT too easily. So let's refine declarer to having 0-1 hearts.

 

If 1 heart, the only shape consistent with the auction is 1=1=6=5. I rule out 1=1=7=4, since I don't see why declarer would offer up clubs with a 3-card discrepancy and clubs headed by at best the KJ. Potential hands for declarer are:

 

x A AKQJxx Jxxxx OR

x x AKQJxx KJxxx OR

x A AQJxxx KJxxx

 

In the first example, we must cash our ♣A and our ♣K now or else declarer can win (clear the ♥A if necessary), draw trumps ending in dummy and discard club losers on dummy's good hearts and the ♠Q. If declarer has the second hand, then we must cash our heart trick now or else declarer will win, draw trumps ending in dummy and discard his heart loser on the ♠Q. If declarer has hand three, then we just need to cash our ♣A and partner will make a trump trick. True that declarer isn't home even on a ♥ switch right away, but when partner wins his trump trick, he has to play a club, lest they be thrown on dummy's good ♥'s and the ♠Q. Thus, it seems that we should cash our ♣A and then guess whether to play a club or heart at trick 3.

 

Finally, if declarer happens to be 1=0=6=6 (partner having Jxx Axxxxxx xx x), then to set we need to play ♣A and another club giving partner a ruff. Although, in this case, perhaps partner would have lead the ♥A or his stiff club.

 

So it seems right to me to start with ♣A and try to guess from there. If partner has xx in clubs, perhaps he has a clear enough spot for us to find the heart switch.

 

The only reason I can see for the club underlead is that it's MP's, so a 2-trick set (partner having Kx of clubs) will give us a big score. At IMP's the ♣A seems standout.

[sathyab]

Declarer has shown up with a stiff ♠, he definitely won't have two small ♥s for his bidding. So even when partner has the ♥A, we're never going to beat this more than one.

 

Cashing the ♣A postpones the problem by a trick, as he plays the 8 spot and you still won't know what to do. As it turns out declarer has x Ax AKQxx JTxxx.

[cherdanno]

Declarer has shown up with a stiff ♠, he definitely won't have two small ♥s for his bidding. So even when partner has the ♥A, we're never going to beat this more than one.

 

Cashing the ♣A postpones the problem by a trick, as he plays the 8 spot and you still won't know what to do. As it turns out declarer has x Ax AKQxx JTxxx.

Why is this hand a 5C bid, but x xx AKQxx KJTxx is not?

[jdonn]

Declarer has shown up with a stiff ♠, he definitely won't have two small ♥s for his bidding. So even when partner has the ♥A, we're never going to beat this more than one.

 

Cashing the ♣A postpones the problem by a trick, as he plays the 8 spot and you still won't know what to do. As it turns out declarer has x Ax AKQxx JTxxx.

Why is this hand a 5C bid, but x xx AKQxx KJTxx is not?

I don't think anyone else has said it, but I still think with Jxx Axxxx xxx xx partner should (will?) lead the ace of hearts.

[sathyab]

Declarer has shown up with a stiff ♠, he definitely won't have two small ♥s for his bidding. So even when partner has the ♥A, we're never going to beat this more than one.

 

Cashing the ♣A postpones the problem by a trick, as he plays the 8 spot and you still won't know what to do. As it turns out declarer has x Ax AKQxx JTxxx.

Why is this hand a 5C bid, but x xx AKQxx KJTxx is not?

One of them has a first round control in a major suit, the other one has potential quick losers in both major suits ?

[MFA]

Declarer has shown up with a stiff ♠, he definitely won't have two small ♥s for his bidding. So even when partner has the ♥A, we're never going to beat this more than one.

 

Cashing the ♣A postpones the problem by a trick, as he plays the 8 spot and you still won't know what to do. As it turns out declarer has x Ax AKQxx JTxxx.

Why is this hand a 5C bid, but x xx AKQxx KJTxx is not?

I don't think anyone else has said it, but I still think with Jxx Axxxx xxx xx partner should (will?) lead the ace of hearts.

I don't think I would lead the ♥A from that. 3♠ sounds like a 6-card suit only. The risk of having the heart ace ruffed with ♥K(Q) in dummy is significant, while on the other hand if declarer should be void in spades, which we have no particular reason to think, there is a good chance that partner's spades are good enough to neutralize dummy.

[MFA]

Cashing the ♣A postpones the problem by a trick, as he plays the 8 spot and you still won't know what to do. As it turns out declarer has x Ax AKQxx JTxxx.

Yeah, it took no master's degree in deduction to figure out that ♣A wouldn't work out when it wasn't even included in the poll. I still think it's the best shot though.