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From Smithtown regional swiss

ashdown4

By ashdown4
in Interesting Bridge Hands

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Your call.  

40 members have voted

  1. 1. Your call.

    • PASS
      25
    • DBL
      1
    • 3S
      1
    • 3NT
      3
    • 4D
      6
    • ABSTAIN, BECAUSE I HATE 1D
      4
    • OTHER
      0

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MarkDean

MarkDean

Posted
Posted

I seem to be the only person who likes 3NT. I had a talk with Alex about the hand, and I think perhaps the passers have some more to consider.

 

First off, let me ask, what do you think the odds are that partner has the king of diamonds?

 

Regardless of your answer to that question, I think of the possibilities in two categories:

 

1) LHO is going to bid 4♥ if we pass

2) He is going to pass.

 

In case 1), LHO is likely to bid 4♥ anyways, and we are not really any worse off. Partner already showed a likely heart trick with 1NT, so if he doubles, I think we are odds on to beat it.

 

In case 2), there is a decent chance that we are slated for -140. That makes the odds of bidding a vul game quite different (although there is certainly the possibility of -200, 300, or even 400 in 3NT, or -200 in 4Dx, which pushes it in the other direction). It also has the chance of them taking a phantom (+50/100 is a lot better than -140).

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ArtK78

ArtK78

Posted
Posted
I seem to be the only person who likes 3NT.  I had a talk with Alex about the hand, and I think perhaps the passers have some more to consider.

Let's see.

 

I opened 1♦ in third seat holding two aces and a queen. Now you want me to bid 3NT?

 

You could be right - partner could have a heart winner and Kxx of diamonds. Of course, the opponents, knowing that this is a possibility, might do something that is in their best interest - lead clubs. They could have five clubs and one or two heart winners or some other combination that adds up to 6 tricks. Or they could lead a club and get a heart through partner's Kxx of hearts, and wind up taking some astronomical number of tricks.

 

And then there are the 9000 hands where partner does not have the magic diamond holdings - Kx or better. In that case, you might go down 3, 4 maybe even 5 tricks. How does -500 look opposite the opponents' (hypothetical) heart game?

 

3NT is a top or bottom bid, and I am guessing that there is about a 15%/85% split between top and bottom. Given that this is IMPs, I suspect that you are likely to lose IMPs far more often than you win them by bidding 3NT. And this doesn't even take into account hands where partner has good hearts (like QJTx) but short diamonds for his 1NT bid. Suppose partner holds:

 

KTx QJTx x JTxxx

 

What is he supposed to bid over P - (P) - 1♦ - (1♥)? Now, if one of the opponents has good diamonds (say, KQx or better) you could get doubled in 3NT and in 4♦ if you choose to run.

 

3NT is a very dangerous bid. It has an upside, but the downside is very large.

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Jlall

Jlall

Posted
Posted
I seem to be the only person who likes 3NT.  I had a talk with Alex about the hand, and I think perhaps the passers have some more to consider.

 

First off, let me ask, what do you think the odds are that partner has the king of diamonds?

 

Regardless of your answer to that question, I think of the possibilities in two categories:

 

1)  LHO is going to bid 4♥ if we pass

2)  He is going to pass.

 

In case 1), LHO is likely to bid 4♥ anyways, and we are not really any worse off.  Partner already showed a likely heart trick with 1NT, so if he doubles, I think we are odds on to beat it.   

 

In case 2), there is a decent chance that we are slated for -140.  That makes the odds of bidding a vul game quite different (although there is certainly the possibility of -200, 300, or even 400 in 3NT, or -200 in 4Dx, which pushes it in the other direction).  It also has the chance of them taking a phantom (+50/100 is a lot better than -140).

The fact that it's a save is good, but as you alluded to 3N is usually going to be down multiple (vul) if it's down imo.

 

Also, I would expect to beat 3H most of the time, we have a good defensive hand (ace empty in our long suit, and an ace and a queen).

 

If you changed this hand a little I would like 3N more, it's still a funny bid and I think anyone who actually tries it has [a lot of courage].

 

Still -200 or -300 into +50 really worries me.

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Jlall

Jlall

Posted
Posted
Does partner know to pull with a stiff diamond? We may not even be the side that can make 3NT on this hand!

A stiff diamond? Seriously? Maybe he should learn not to bid 1N with a stiff lol*

 

*In before 3415 with stiff honor and bad clubs example hand. KJx KTxx K xxxxx?

 

Anyways I think he has a stiff diamond to bid 1N like less than 1 % of the time.

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ashdown4

ashdown4

Posted
  • Author
Posted

[hv=d=n&v=n&n=sxxhaxxdkxxcjtxxx&w=skxxhktxxxdqcakxx&e=sqjxxxhqjxxdjxcxx&s=sat9hxdatxxxxxcqx]399|300|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

At the table 3H made 3, as defense scored 3 aces and a spade ruff. We lost 7 imps to 130 at the other table (don't know the auction). 3NT our way was on. Not very surprising now that I think about it.

 

One hand proves nothing, of course.

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