Card combination

[VixTD]

K92 - AJ43

 

Could someone please tell me how to give myself the best chance of making three tricks in this suit. (My answer is at odds with the textbooks, so I must be doing something wrong.)

[Free]

This one is not the same as K952 - AJ43 (in which case you ALWAYS have 3 tricks).

 

I think the best way is A, K and small to the J. Picks up any 3-3, Qx, Tx, QT, Q, T and QTxx(x) onside.

[gwnn]

two strategies:

 

1. cash ace cash king

2. cash king small to jack

 

1 wins over 2 when lho has Qx (or all 6 cards). 2 never wins over 1.

[kfay]

two strategies:

 

1. cash ace cash king

2. cash king small to jack

 

1 wins over 2 when lho has Qx (or all 6 cards). 2 never wins over 1.

Wrong!

 

Two cases are:

 

1) Cash A, Cash K, small to J

2) Small to 9, Cash K, small to J

 

If you check all the combos it looks like these 2 lines are a wash (both losing to 11 cases), but what you have to figure is things like

 

with (2) you lose to Qxx offside, 6 cases, which doesn't push with Q10xx offside that you pick up with (2) because each Qxx is more likely than Q10xx, etc.

 

But anyway I agree with these guys line 1 is best.

[gwnn]

oh good that you explained it, did someone help you to figure it out? :D

[kfay]

oh good that you explained it, did someone help you to figure it out? :D

Yes, suitplay FTW!

[VixTD]

Two cases are:

 

1) Cash A, Cash K, small to J

2) Small to 9, Cash K, small to J

I came up with:

 

(1) A, K, then small to J

(2) small to 9, K, then small to J

(3) small to 9, K, then A

 

I think (3) is better than (2) (doesn't lose to Qxx with East), so I rejected (2).

 

It looks to me as if:

 

(1) loses to Q10xx (9.6%) and Q10xxx (4.8%) with East

(3) loses to Qxxx (6.4%) and Qxxxx (1.2%) with East

 

so (3) succeeds 92% of the time, (1) 86% of the time. Two books give (1) as the correct answer.

 

As I said, I'm doing something wrong, either I've missed some losing card distributions, or my percentages are incorrect.

[gwnn]

3 loses to Tx and T at east..

[kfay]

Two cases are:

 

1) Cash A, Cash K, small to J

2) Small to 9, Cash K, small to J

I came up with:

 

(1) A, K, then small to J

(2) small to 9, K, then small to J

(3) small to 9, K, then A

 

I think (3) is better than (2) (doesn't lose to Qxx with East), so I rejected (2).

 

It looks to me as if:

 

(1) loses to Q10xx (9.6%) and Q10xxx (4.8%) with East

(3) loses to Qxxx (6.4%) and Qxxxx (1.2%) with East

 

so (3) succeeds 92% of the time, (1) 86% of the time. Two books give (1) as the correct answer.

 

As I said, I'm doing something wrong, either I've missed some losing card distributions, or my percentages are incorrect.

Line 3 loses to: Q10xx onside (6), 10x under the J (4), stiff 10 under the J (1)

 

Line 1 loses to: Q10xx offside (6), Q10xxx offside (4), all offside (1)

 

p(10x) > p(Q10xxx) and p(stiff 10) > p(all offside) so this doesn't seem close.

 

edit: i'm dumb cash the ace first not the K, so i don't even lose to all offside (not like it makes a big difference)

 

 

 

but yeah you are forgetting:

 

.........AJ43

Q10xx........xx

.........K92

[VixTD]

3 loses to Tx and T at east..

No it doesn't.

[VixTD]

but yeah you are forgetting:

 

.........AJ43

Q10xx........xx

.........K92

That would explain it. That brings the success rate down to 83%, compared to 86% for (1).

 

Thanks.

[pooltuna]

K92 - AJ43

 

Could someone please tell me how to give myself the best chance of making three tricks in this suit. (My answer is at odds with the textbooks, so I must be doing something wrong.)

From the chart below you can see the first column is the winner(cash AK;low to J) with the 3rd column slightly worse and the second column last. You must remember that 3-3>4-2>5-1>6-0; i.e. probability of any single 3-3 is higher than any single 4-2; and column 1 lost to six 4-2 and four 5-1 while column 3 lost to ten 4-2 and column 2 lost to ten 4-2 and one 5-1.

 

RHO---LHO---cash KA; low to J--- low to 9; cash KA---cash K;low to 9;cash A

- qt8765 w w w

q t8765 w w w

t q8765 w l w

8 qt765 l w w

7 qt865 l w w

6 qt875 l w w

5 qt876 l w w

qt 8765 w w w

q8 t765 w w w

q7 q865 w w w

q6 q875 w w w

q5 q876 w w w

t8 q765 w l l

t7 q865 w l l

t6 q875 w l l

t5 q876 w l l

87 qt65 l w w

86 qt75 l w w

85 qt76 l w w

76 qt85 l w w

75 qt86 l w w

65 qt87 l w w

qt8 765 w w w

qt7 865 w w w

qt6 875 w w w

qt5 876 w w w

q87 t65 w w w

q86 t75 w w w

q85 t76 w w w

q76 t85 w w w

q75 t86 w w w

q65 t87 w w w

t87 q65 w w w

t86 q75 w w w

t85 q76 w w w

t76 q85 w w w

t75 q86 w w w

t65 q87 w w w

876 qt5 w w w

875 qt6 w w w

865 qt7 w w w

765 qt8 w w w

8765 qt w w w

t765 q8 w w w

t865 q7 w w w

t875 q6 w w w

t876 q5 w w w

q765 t8 w w w

q865 t7 w w w

q875 t6 w w w

q876 t5 w w w

qt65 87 w l l

qt75 86 w l l

qt76 85 w l l

qt85 76 w l l

qt86 75 w l l

qt87 65 w l l

t8765 q w w w

q8765 t w w w

qt765 8 w w w

qt865 7 w w w

qt875 6 w w w

qt876 5 w w w

qt8765 - w w w

[gwnn]

3 loses to Tx and T at east..

No it doesn't.

right sorry I had a faulty compass.