mikegill Posted April 21, 2010 Report Share Posted April 21, 2010 Just thought I'd see what everyone's choice is [hv=d=e&v=b&s=sk7hj7543dkj2c986]133|100|Scoring: MP1♠ p 1N p 3♠ p 4♠[/hv] opps are terrible if that matters to you (this is from a club game) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeh Posted April 21, 2010 Report Share Posted April 21, 2010 I lead whatever the correct heart spot: for me that would be the 3. I'd probably lead that at imps as well, but at imps there is more of a case for a small diamond...at mps, that strikes me as too aggressive. I wouldn't lead a club, since that is the suit in which I am most likely to pick off partner's holding. And a trump is idiotic, imo. Thus my heart: the most conservative lead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdonn Posted April 21, 2010 Report Share Posted April 21, 2010 I agree with, definitely a heart at mps and probably a heart at imps although I could see a diamond. A heart could easily get us a ruff on top of being passive which is why I like it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jlall Posted April 21, 2010 Report Share Posted April 21, 2010 I think a club is more passive than a heart, the jack empty is just so bad imo. Obv a 5 card suit is more passive than a 3 card suit though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeh Posted April 21, 2010 Report Share Posted April 21, 2010 I think a club is more passive than a heart, the jack empty is just so bad imo. Obv a 5 card suit is more passive than a 3 card suit though.xxx is obviously safer than Jxx, but Jxxxx is safer than xxx, imo, on this type of auction. Opener rates to have a stiff or two doubletons, and a lead into his short suit(s) will be more passive than a lead into his 3 card side suit(s). And the odds are that he holds more clubs than hearts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pooltuna Posted April 21, 2010 Report Share Posted April 21, 2010 Just thought I'd see what everyone's choice is [hv=d=e&v=b&s=sk7hj7543dkj2c986]133|100|Scoring: MP1♠ p 1N p 3♠ p 4♠[/hv] opps are terrible if that matters to you (this is from a club game) 2♦>4♥>>>6♣>>>>K♠ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
akhare Posted April 21, 2010 Report Share Posted April 21, 2010 Small ♥ for me....seeking safety in numbers here by leading my longer suit... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted April 21, 2010 Report Share Posted April 21, 2010 I think a club is more passive than a heart, the jack empty is just so bad imo. Obv a 5 card suit is more passive than a 3 card suit though.xxx is obviously safer than Jxx, but Jxxxx is safer than xxx, imo, on this type of auction. Opener rates to have a stiff or two doubletons, and a lead into his short suit(s) will be more passive than a lead into his 3 card side suit(s). And the odds are that he holds more clubs than hearts. With 3-3 (decl + dummy) everyone agrees the heart lead is death. However, it seems that if declarer has a doubleton heart, rather than dummy, then the heart lead might be less passive not more, especially when declarer has a doubleton honor. There may even be some strange combinations where declarer has a singleton or void when the heart lead blows a trick. I'm picturing Kx / Axx+ - with both the 10/9. Its also poor with the A-Q-T combinations but these also might be misguessed. The presence of the ♣9 mitigates some of the misguesses - like with KTx opp Qxx there is only one way to play the suit - assuming the 7 doesn't come into play. However, if we are putting declarer on a doubleton club (admittedly less likely than a doubleton heart), then the chance of a misguess seems small. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenberg Posted April 21, 2010 Report Share Posted April 21, 2010 club Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikegill Posted April 21, 2010 Author Report Share Posted April 21, 2010 I led a club trying to be passive, but I wasn't really all that sure which would be considered the safer lead - a heart or a club. I knew I wasn't going to lead a diamond or a spade. Club finds partner with Qx and dummy with AJTxx, heart finds partner with AQxx and dummy KT9, so obv a heart works better this time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Free Posted April 22, 2010 Report Share Posted April 22, 2010 ♥ seems the best choice to me, ♣ can give away tricks much easier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluecalm Posted April 22, 2010 Report Share Posted April 22, 2010 Very crude simulation effort: W: our handS: 15-17hcp, exactly 6♠, no 5card suit on the sideN: 7-11hcp, exactly 2♠ Winning lead at imps (for 504 hands): ♠ - 44low ♥ - 1212♦ - 948♣ - 113 Of course it's crude and not really saying much but as it agrees with my intuition I am pretty sure about ♥ being correct lead at both imps and mp's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Codo Posted April 22, 2010 Report Share Posted April 22, 2010 Did you notice that there are hands where a heart lead (f.e.) is the only one to gift them with the contract?So, on how many deals did a s/h/d/c gifts them the 12. trick? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluecalm Posted April 22, 2010 Report Share Posted April 22, 2010 I made one more simulation. Where number of tricks matter.No. of Deals where specified card is the best lead: ♠ - 107low ♥ - 3802♦ - 3108♣ - 355 I don't know how to check for number of deals where given lead is better than ♥ lead though. What we can deduce from those results is that there were 120 hands in 500 were ♥ wasn't the best lead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whereagles Posted April 22, 2010 Report Share Posted April 22, 2010 I would try the club. Diamond may look attractive, but RHO has the strong hand, so that's not so hot as in paper. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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