two problems, one hand

[bftboy]

[hv=d=s&v=b&n=sak1052h64d985cj63&s=s87hak2dkq106cak74]133|200|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

Against good opponents, you reach 3NT with no opposition bidding. You duck the low ♥ opening lead, RHO playing the 10, and win the ♥J continuation.

 

Problem 1: what is the best way to play ♠'s for maximum tricks? Seems to me, lead 7 and duck if not covered. Am I right?

 

Your ♠ play makes no difference as RHO wins the 9 if you duck and the Q if you play the 10. RHO leads another ♥. The spots are ambiguous, ♥'s could be 5-3, 4-4, or even 3-5. When you play ♠'s, you find RHO started with Q943.

 

Problem 2: what now? what is best play to make contract? are there any real alternatives?

 

thx, :(

[mikeh]

This is my second attempt at an answer.

 

The issues are actually (to me, at least) very complex, but overall my view is that IF you are going to play on spades, the best approach is low to the 10. I arrive at this conclusion by examining the relevant holdings and the fact that 3 tricks in spades, with no losers, doesn't get us to 3N making....altho of course it helps.

 

The second question, not asked in the OP, is whether one should even play on spades at all.

 

I can't answer the question of what are the percentages flowing from the spade attack, in part because of the conditions that we don't know the heart distribution.

 

BTW, I see zero likelihood that hearts are 3-5: since RHO played 10/J...he won't hold QJ10 or J109, so LHO holds Q9, and we would have seen one of those cards at trick 2 if he held only 3 in total. Furthermore, why on earth would LHO play false spot cards at tricks one and two? Some defenders do, but most don't, so I would expect to have a very good idea how the hearts lay if I were at the table.

 

Assuming, as I think is probably reasonable, that playing on spades affords a less than 50% chance of making (I actually guessestimate it to be quite close, and the mathematicians amonst us may prove me wrong about the 50%), it seems to me to be clear to play on diamonds instead. Win trick 2 and lead a top diamond honour (to cater to stiff J offside...a tiny percentage but one that puts the diamond line above 50%). We intend to play for 3 diamond tricks, plus AK in the other suits for an easy 9 tricks.

 

As a further note on the spade suit: how do we play if, on the first lead of the suit, rho pops an honour?

 

I assume we duck. What do we play when he plays low on the second round? Or plays the 9 on the second round?

 

Does the lack of the 6 in dummy affect our thinking as declarer or defender?

 

As I say, I think this suit is interesting.

[rbforster]

Problem 2: what now? what is best play to make contract? are there any real alternatives?

Having set up the spade loser, at this point we basically have to play diamonds for 3 tricks barring RHO being unable to win any trick to cash his Q♠. I'd run the 9♦ hoping for Jx or AJx/Jxx onside.

 

I think playing on spades the way you did was ok, but I'm less sure what you'll do about an honor hopping or whether playing on spades at all is best.

[mikeh]

Problem 2: what now?  what is best play to make contract?  are there any real alternatives?

 

 

I think playing on spades the way you did was ok, but I'm less sure what you'll do about an honor hopping or whether playing on spades at all is best.

since running the 7 (or the 8) loses a trick to 9xx and never gains on any 33 break (I ignore QJ9 onside, since we can't run the 7 if that is the holding), where does it gain?

 

If rho wins an honour, we can pick up H9xx onside...but will we? Surely we don't want to take zero spade tricks when rho holds QJx (including QJ9...a good player would have no problem winning an honour on this holding, and the OP specified good opps)) or QJ tight, and why shouldn't he?

 

So unless we are prepared to adopt a line that maximizes our chance of minimalizing our spade winners (ie. playing AK10xx opposite xx for two losers and zero winners) how is floating either the 7 or the 8 the optimum approach?

[Jlall]

If LHO had H9xx he could just cover the 7 with the 9

[bftboy]

Revisiting this hand generally, I expect that mikeh is right and that the best percentage line is to play for 3 ♦ tricks. As he says, plunk down the K after winning the 2nd ♥, and if the J doesn't fall, cross to dummy in ♠ and hook it. If it loses, we can still make if ♥'s are 4-4, and the ♣ Q is doubleton. The problem with trying to combine chances in ♠'s and ♦'s ( as I did when I played it) is that it will very often create a 2d ♠ winner for the defense to go along with at least 2 ♥ and the ♦ A.

 

Taking the ♠ suit in isolation, it's true that a good LHO holding H9xx should cover if the 7 or 8 is led, so I think now it is probably best to just insert the 10. thx for replies. :rolleyes: