To sac or not?

[serapuff]

Holding as dealer at favourable vulnerability:

 

A

KQJ985

82

jxxx

 

 

Bidding goes 1H-(1S)-2H-(3D)-3H-(4S)-p-p-?

 

3D was alerted as diamond suit with probably 2 cards in spades.

 

What would you bid?

[Jlall]

no

[xcurt]

I would at matchpoints.

[serapuff]

Thanks for the quick responses!

 

What is the thinking behind whether to sac or not? Is it the Ace of spades?

[aguahombre]

I would at matchpoints.

Presumably because there are no team mates to see what you did. Make sure you swear partner and the opponents to secrecy.

[xcurt]

I would at matchpoints.

Presumably because there are no team mates to see what you did. Make sure you swear partner and the opponents to secrecy.

You don't think that they are favorites to make and also that we can't take 8 tricks?

 

To answer the OP's question at the same time

 

* I'm taking 1 trick with spades trump, and maybe another if things go well

* Partner made a simple raise to probably doesn't have enough prime stuff to beat 4S by force. Partner might have deep spade tricks or declarer in 4S might not have enough communication with the dummy that he will drift off in the endgame, but this seems unlikely. In short, I have bad diamond and heart holdings for defense. My spade holding isn't great either since I am likely to be unable to hold up the SA until dummy is out of trumps.

 

 

* I'm taking 5 tricks with hearts trump with no help from partner

* Partner probably has some length and strength in clubs, which meshes well with my hand. Let's give partner some hands, random to slightly good for us on play:

 

Jxx, xxx, Kxxx, ATx. That's probably 9 tricks for us on play and probably 3 (maybe 2 and maybe 4) tricks on defense.

 

xx, Axx, Jxxx, Kxxx. Again, 8-9 tricks for us, and they are again favorites. If their hearts are 2-2 the defense of HA, H, club back might still not work if declarer is 7222 or 7213 and diamonds are not blocked.

 

xxx, Axx, xxx, Txxx. I need 3-2 clubs for 8 tricks, 4S is a lock.

 

xx, xxx, xxxx, Kxxx. I need 3-2 clubs and the CA onside for 8 tricks, 4S is a lock.

 

etc etc.

 

I'm laying odds a little since I need all of <they make 4S>, <4S is getting bid at other tables>, and <5H isn't down 4>, but in a competent field, I think that's a reasonably parlay.

[aguahombre]

good analysis. Mine is simpler.

 

Since I am too dense to calculate all those probabilities during the auction, I decided to open the bidding, and then reraise partner's raise. I showed a minimum opening bid with six hearts. Partner just showed a simple raise with 3 hearts. Partner knows more about my hand than I do about declarer's or partner's hand.

 

Unilateral sacrifices have not worked out well for me in the past.

[cherdanno]

The problem with sacrificing at matchpoints is that opponents' auction doesn't sound like everybody will be in game. In that case, you lose a lot if your sac is wrong (a full MP against everyone defending a spade partscore, or playing 4H (X)), but don't gain much when you are right (i.e. no MP against those same pairs).

[dake50]

As aquahombre, was partner there? He didn't sac seeing defense(maybe only holding overtrick) or seeing too expensive or hoping they pushed unlucky.

[xcurt]

The problem with sacrificing at matchpoints is that opponents' auction doesn't sound like everybody will be in game. In that case, you lose a lot if your sac is wrong (a full MP against everyone defending a spade partscore, or playing 4H (X)), but don't gain much when you are right (i.e. no MP against those same pairs).

Sounds to me like they will mostly be in game, after all, LHO has rebiddable spades -- if they were having a misunderstanding he would have bid 3S, probably out of tempo. That also sets a floor on his HCP, else he would have preempted over 1H. Even if RHO doesn't find the 3D call, LHO would rebid his spades and now RHO, who has the values for the free 3D call and no heart wastage, probably raises.

[whereagles]

Yes, sac. Heart ace in pard is probably all you need to make it worth it.