Play 6NT

[rwbarton]

Another hand from the sectional Swiss Teams, flight B.

 

[hv=d=e&v=e&n=saqxha9xdk9xcqjxx&s=sjxxhkq8xdaxxcakx]133|200|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

You have an uninterrupted relay auction in which South opens a strong club, North shows 3334 with 13+ HCP and 5 AK controls, South makes a natural quantitative invite (5NT!) and North raises to 6NT.

 

Trick 1 goes ♠x-x-x-J. Clearly, something strange has happened on this trick. If LHO underled the ♠K, we now have at least 12 tricks. Or maybe RHO ducked the ♠K, which might have been necessary if we held Jxxx KQx Axx AKx, but on this layout, gives us extra squeeze chances if he also has long hearts. How do you judge the relative likelihood of these errors? How do you proceed?

[kfay]

P(Underled ♠K)=85% Just a guess.

 

You said flight B, right? Not to disparage players but generally 4th best still applies here, in my experience.

[cherdanno]

Agree with Kfay, but: you should really watch the spots for clues! 9 x x J would make a duck from the king much more likely, e.g.

[quiddity]

My experience is that the average sectional opponent would rarely underlead the king on this auction, especially when he is likely to have a passive lead available. But even more certain is that the average player would rarely be able to duck the king in tempo.

 

Sidebar "ethics" question: is it acceptable for declarer to intentionally play low quickly from dummy on the first trick to get information from East's tempo? Would it be acceptable for East to say "no problem, just need a minute to think about the hand" regardless of whether he held the king? Or is east always expected to play to the first trick in tempo and then think about the hand?

 

Anyway, if I think west has the king, I play off two top hearts ending in dummy. If west drops an honor I try the heart finesse. Otherwise I play a club to hand and take the spade hook. If it loses I still have chances - 3-3 hearts or a red squeeze.

 

If I think east has the king, I guess I'd play hearts the same way and continue a third heart if west doesn't drop an honor. If east has the long heart I can try to squeeze him down to Kx of spades and throw him in with the heart.

[Jlall]

The spade x's are really important. If RHO put in the T it could easily be KT, if LHO led a high spot thats a clue etc etc.

 

Quiddity: You are always allowed to take as much time as you want at trick 1. You do not have to say "just thinking about the hand." If someone said "just thinking about the hand" when they had a problem at trick 1 I'd be mildly annoyed...just don't say anything in either case. If the declarer assumes you have a trick 1 problem because you don't say "thinking about the hand" that is their problem, it's completely normal to think at trick 1.

[Rossoneri]

Quiddity: You are always allowed to take as much time as you want at trick 1. You do not have to say "just thinking about the hand." If someone said "just thinking about the hand" when they had a problem at trick 1 I'd be mildly annoyed...just don't say anything in either case. If the declarer assumes you have a trick 1 problem because you don't say "thinking about the hand" that is their problem, it's completely normal to think at trick 1.

Agreed.

 

No idea what the general tendencies of Flight B players are, but I tend to suspect that the probability of a lead from the king is much higher than RHO having the king and ducking.

[gwnn]

What do you mean "errors" ? It sounds a little categorical I think...

 

Anyway it has happened to me a lot that I assumed LHO would never underlead (...) vs 6NTand oops, he did underlead it. Sometimes they lead a high spot to "confuse" you like K8xx.

[billw55]

Meh, I can't tell which is more likely. I guess I play a diamond to the 9 at trick two, which can't hurt, might get a helpful lead from righty, and if nothing else will rectify the count if there is a squeeze. If LHO puts up a quack then leads another spade, I am more confident that he lacks the ♠K.