Little Kid Posted April 12, 2010 Report Share Posted April 12, 2010 [hv=d=e&v=n&n=st743hk83dk85cq54&s=sak6haqjt75dj2c86]133|200|Scoring: IMP(Pass)-1♥-(2♣)-2♥(Pass)-4♥[/hv]Defence:♣A-♣4-♣7-♣6♣K-♣5-♣2-♣8♣T-♣Q-♣J-♠6 What is your plan? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vuroth Posted April 12, 2010 Report Share Posted April 12, 2010 If hearts are 2-2, the 8 can be an entry to dummy in case the spades are 3-3. Since I need to cash the AK of spades before drawing a second round of trumps (using the King as entry to ruff a spade), I may risk a spade ruff (~16%), but the upside is good. If hearts/spades don't work out for me, I'll fall back on the King of diamonds. Actually, if hearts ARE 2-2, but spades are 2-4 with east, I can endplay east into leading diamonds up to my king. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mohitz Posted April 12, 2010 Report Share Posted April 12, 2010 If hearts are 2-2, the 8 can be an entry to dummy in case the spades are 3-3. Also, works if spade is 4-2 and QJ falls. Actually, if hearts ARE 2-2, but spades are 2-4 with east, I can endplay east into leading diamonds up to my king. Yes, but then wouldn't you be down already? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Little Kid Posted April 12, 2010 Author Report Share Posted April 12, 2010 How do you get to 16% for a ♠ ruff by the opponents? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vuroth Posted April 12, 2010 Report Share Posted April 12, 2010 Spades are 5-1 or 6-0 around 16%, right? Admittedly, chances of a ruff are a bit less, since I'm cashing the A♥ straight away - there's always a chance that the short spade hand is also short in hearts. Also, works if spade is 4-2 and QJ falls. True, though I wouldn't give it much thought at the table. If it happens, I'll certainly notice it. :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Little Kid Posted April 12, 2010 Author Report Share Posted April 12, 2010 LHO is unlikely to be short in ♥s and ♠s I think, it would place him with too many ♦s for his 2♣ bid. RHO short in ♥ and ♠ would give LHO too many ♠s for 2♣. If you take into account the bidding and play so far, I do think that the odds of a ♠ ruff are lower than 16%. For example with QJ9852 RHO would quite likely have opened 2♠ at this vul. LHO with 6♠ and 5♣s seems strange too given his 2♣ overcall. With 5♠+5♣ LHO most likely would not have overcalled 2♣ either. LHO has shown 5♣s so far and is limited to 4♦s for his 2♣ bid. So the only possible layout for a ♠ ruff is 1=3=4=5 with LHO. That layout seems unlikely given the fact he has not played a ♠ so far. Admittedly most of these are guesses but I would expect them to hold true against most players who are intermediate or better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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