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Hi,

 

I think the hand is too weak red vs. green, and is borderline

at equal vul., so the answer is, it depends.

 

But after 1H, you also have the opportunity to bid 1S.

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

 

PS: The above does not really take MP into account, playing MP

it also depends on the field, I think the risk getting Xed in a average

field is low, so ..., but playing in a high end field, the risk is higher,

although than you may be able to get away with it anyway, once in

a while, because they would assume a stronger hand.

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over what?

Does it affect your decision or are you just curious? (just wondering if you would overcall over 1C but not 1H or something).

Kathryn said overcall rather than jump overcall so I wondered whether this was over 1NT or something at the two-level.

 

But probably mostly I was curious.

 

The suit opened makes some difference.

 

If I was xx in the suit opened then I would be more inclined than when I am Qx in the suit opened. I would also be more inclined over a minor opening which could be short than over a more precisely defined 1 showing a five-card suit.

 

I suspect at MPs where frequency is more important than the size of any potential disaster that this is close depending on whether hearts or a minor is opened and whether or not the opponents are vulnerable.

 

It may even be ok at any vulnerability. A simulation suggested that there were 7+ tricks more than 55-60% of the time. Given that the opponents will not catch us every time we are wrong that bidding could easily work often enough.

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Why is passing with 7222, no ace, no king disgusting?

bidding 1S over 1H is the single most profitable action at bridge, it has more upsides than doubling 7NT with AK when you are on lead.

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It may even be ok at any vulnerability.  A simulation suggested that there were 7+ tricks more than 55-60% of the time. Given that the opponents will not catch us every time we are wrong that bidding could easily work often enough.

Not sure that statistic provides enough information to conclude that.

 

It does seem to argue against bidding at the 2 level (no surprise) because 40-45% of the time we make 6 or fewer tricks, and presumably some of the time we make 7 or 8 tricks partner has raised, and we are making our 7 or 8 tricks in 4X.

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Why is passing with 7222, no ace, no king disgusting?

 

Well, doesn't it depend on your attitude towards bidding? If you feel that passing is always the default action, you only bid when you have a hand that is ideal for bidding. If you want to be bidding as often as possible, you will often bid with hands that have some flaw. And, it is not just a cliche, bridge really is a bidder's game.

 

On this particular hand, overcalling vulnerable at the 2 level is very risky - with no tricks, you will often go for a number. So if you do want to bid (and you do have seven spades), 1 offers a compromise between the friendly pass and the suicidal jump overcall.

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Holding AT, J8, AK754, A853 I bid 3 over rho's 2.

 

1 (2) 3 (P)

3 (P) 4* I need to find a better bid here.

 

Surprisingly, or not, the 2 overcall was made at several (BBO) tables, I think it is horrid.

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Holding AT, J8, AK754, A853 I bid 3 over rho's 2.

 

1 (2) 3 (P)

3 (P) 4* I need to find a better bid here.

 

Surprisingly, or not, the 2 overcall was made at several (BBO) tables, I think it is horrid.

The alternative to 4H is 3S.

 

You did create a gf with 3D, since you are have a very control rich

hand, you should make a move toward slam.

3S should agree heart, it is not clear, if 3S is already a cue, that

depends partially on the meaning of 4C, if 4C is natural, i.e. showes

a two suiter, than 3S is just a general force, and may not be a cue.

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

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On this particular hand, overcalling vulnerable at the 2 level is very risky - with no tricks, you will often go for a number. So if you do want to bid (and you do have seven spades), 1 offers a compromise between the friendly pass and the suicidal jump overcall.

Presumably if I bid 1 I'm pulling anything partner doubles? Or is this just one of those cases of sometimes opponents make a doubled contract?

 

I agree that I have some play strength, but I have a TON less defense than 1 usually promises. For me it's not so much about being a passive vs aggressive bidder, it's more a function of how badly I'm going to mislead my partner.

 

FWIW

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Kathryn

 

Over 3, I would bid 3.

 

The main problems are that 3 need not promise 6+ in the suit; 3N may be the best spot; we may belong in clubs; and, finally, tho our hand is not great, it is far from minimum and 4 squelches virtually all slam hopes...partner would need a monster to have 5 level safety given that your 3 call, gf tho it was, was made under pressure.

 

BTW, whenever you have a tough choice of bidding actions, it often pays to make the cheaper one unless doing so is a significant distortion. The cheaper the bid, the more room you leave partner, and the more information can be exchanged. Too many players focus only on their problem, not on partner's possible concerns. Bidding 3 tells partner that you are either not sure about where to go, or that you have a very good hand, and in the meantime gives partner more opportunity to clarify his hand.

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On this particular hand, overcalling vulnerable at the 2 level is very risky - with no tricks, you will often go for a number.  So if you do want to bid (and you do have seven spades), 1 offers a compromise between the friendly pass and the suicidal jump overcall.

Presumably if I bid 1 I'm pulling anything partner doubles? Or is this just one of those cases of sometimes opponents make a doubled contract?

 

I agree that I have some play strength, but I have a TON less defense than 1 usually promises. For me it's not so much about being a passive vs aggressive bidder, it's more a function of how badly I'm going to mislead my partner.

 

FWIW

No, I am not ripping penalty doubles. What level contract will partner be doubling? If partner starts doubling partscores as soon as we have made a 1 level overcall because he thinks we have shown 2 defensive tricks, he will soon learn. If partner doubles them in 3NT or 4 it would be idiotic to run to 4.

 

It is true that you have a couple of points fewer than partner might expect, and you have a couple of spades more. Neither of these factors are particularly exciting.

 

Anyway, you don't have to overcall 1 with this hand. But if your 1 overcalls promise 'a TON of defense', I recommend that you loosen up a bit.

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Once upon a time, I would have bid 3 and not thought much about it. Where I am right now, I would pass, and not think much about it.

 

I'd like to understand people's reasoning, so I can continue to refine my decision making process.

 

When partner overcalls at the 1 level, I would expect, on average, around 1.5 tricks from him. Certainly, it could be less, but something as weak as K KQ still has a good shot at 1 trick. On defense, I'm a full trick less than that.

 

Plus, maybe I'm a little old-fashioned, but I already have a difficult time coping with how wide 8-16 point overcalls are. Widening the range for this hand just seems....dangerous.

 

Don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to be a slave to HCPs here. With 7321, I'm much more likely to stick my nose out.

 

Both gwnn and 655 seem to feel that 1S is better than Pass, or I guess at very least close. So I guess I'm wrong, but I'm trying to understand why.

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Maybe I have developed bad habits from playing in weak fields. But I don't think 2 with this hand would be very dangerous. Neither opp will pass his p's double with less than four spades. Even if one opp has four spades, they may not be able to double, or occasionally they may not pass the double even with four spades. If we get to 2X we haven't lost the board yet. We may go for 1100 against a vulnerable slam.

 

Once (butler, r/w) my p made a 2 overcall on a hand like this. Passed out. I tabled a prime 17-count with a void spades. It made for a very good score. If he had bid 1 I would have kept forcing until opps doubled us in 3 or 4 or 3NT.

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