Given to me by a much better player

[jdonn]

[hv=d=s&n=saxxhakjtxdtxckxx&s=skqtxhqxdaqxcaqxx]133|200|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

You reach 7♥ by south through some complicated precision auction that I don't know even if I wanted to tell you. There was no interference and west leads a trump. If at any point you run trumps they are 4-2 and east pitches diamonds. How do you play?

 

Btw this is going to be really unsatisfying since I don't know the opposing hands either. So even though this really came up it will be theoretical only. :o

[Jlall]

Too mathy for me but I'm sure I'd pitch my diamonds, cash the ace of diamonds, cash clubs, SK SA, play the heart pitching my club then a spade and if no one has been squeezed I hope I can guess spades.

 

Guess I should cash the DA first before pulling the last trump in case of stiff K.

[fred]

Dealer: South Vul: ???? Scoring: IMP

♠ Axx ♥ AKJTx ♦ Tx ♣ Kxx ♠ KQTx ♥ Qx ♦ AQx ♣ AQxx

You reach 7♥ by south through some complicated precision auction that I don't know even if I wanted to tell you. There was no interference and west leads a trump. If at any point you run trumps they are 4-2 and east pitches diamonds. How do you play?

 

Btw this is going to be really unsatisfying since I don't know the opposing hands either. So even though this really came up it will be theoretical only.  :o

I was West when this (shuffled) hand was played so I can tell you what actual hands were when the time comes.

 

Interesting that 7NT is a significantly better a contract than 7H. This deal came up in the round-of-16 of the Vanderbilt. 7H was reached at both tables and both declarers, who are both great players, played the hand in almost exactly the same way. Only one declarer made 7H. Unfortunately that declarer was not on my team so we lost 17 IMPs on this board. Fortunately we still won the match :D

 

Fred Gitelman

Bridge ase Inc.

www.bridgebase.com

[jdonn]

Yes the better player was Geoff hehe. I didn't even find out if he made it or not, I might not have posted it if I knew he went down.

 

So really the question is, is the ten of diamond high enough to pitch both diamonds from hand and play some kind of squeeze, or low enough that it's better to simply pitch a club from hand and try to bring in either spades or diamonds? I'm pretty sure both players went for some squeeze and ended up with a spade guess at the end when they were (J)xx and (J)xxx which is also what I did when given the problem. I don't know if the diamond was onside but yay Fred will tell us.

[Jlall]

I gave it to Bramley...he agrees with my line but he also didn't think about it very long. It is a really strongly intuitive line though.

 

Does RHO know anything about our shape? Maybe him pitching diamonds immediately should be a clue, but it seems like he's often forced to do so, especially if he knows our shape.

 

Edit: Bramley was also insta like oh hes compound squeezed...oh no the threats are all in our hand. Bramley = g0d?!

[Jlall]

Yes the better player was Geoff hehe. So really the question is, is the ten of diamond high enough to pitch both diamonds from hand and play some kind of squeeze, or low enough that it's better to simply pitch a club from hand and try to bring in either spades or diamonds? I'm pretty sure both players went for some squeeze and ended up with a spade guess at the end when they were (J)xx and (J)xxx which is also what I did when given the problem. I don't know if the diamond was onside but yay Fred will tell us.

Someone has KJ of diamonds in their hand 50 % of the time right? And in that case we are cold unless it's RHO who has KJ, and LHO guards both black suit. That is a huge extra edge I think.

[jdonn]

Yes the better player was Geoff hehe. So really the question is, is the ten of diamond high enough to pitch both diamonds from hand and play some kind of squeeze, or low enough that it's better to simply pitch a club from hand and try to bring in either spades or diamonds? I'm pretty sure both players went for some squeeze and ended up with a spade guess at the end when they were (J)xx and (J)xxx which is also what I did when given the problem. I don't know if the diamond was onside but yay Fred will tell us.

Someone has KJ of diamonds in their hand 50 % of the time right? And in that case we are cold unless it's RHO who has KJ, and LHO guards both black suit. That is a huge extra edge I think.

So something like 3/8 of the time you will be cold and otherwise have to test spades and clubs, with a lot of information to go on of course. Whereas the diamond finesse is 50%. Oversimplification I know, but ok say the ten is high enough to play for the squeeze. Should you do it with 9x?

[Fluffy]

the math in this is almost impossible to me, when you play third heart and RHO discards, there is a vacant space thing now about both ♠J and ♦K, but I think clubs divided are almost the same % as before.

 

Given that you are picking spades 1-5 always you might wanna asume that spades will break 4-2 or better when calculating the odds of the vacant spaces (the more cards you have seen the more relevance to vacant spaces I believe). Wich will put ♦K onside 9/16 = 56% onside (a bit less cos spades might be 5-1).

 

if clubs don't break I think (not sure) you have to give up of them enterilly, won't help you even if someone holds the 3 suits.

 

 

so discarding ♦Q is IMO asking for 3-3 clubs or ♦KJ offside along with 4+ spades.

 

Unless I am missing something, the ♦10 only serves as a menace if LHO has ♦KJ and 4+ spades with the jack. Because if its RHO who holds them you cannot fail on any line. And asking for the guy with 4 trumps to hold 4 spades and 2 more cards is asking too much.

 

so between 56% diamond finese versus 38% clubs 3-3 or an unlikelly squeeze I think it is better to pick just [iD] finese.

 

 

I believe giving up on clubs is the best line mathematically but I think I have missed something :o (I don't trust my reading skills to give me an edge in the end).

[Jlall]

Honestly even if the diamond in dummy is the 3 I think it's close.

 

Pitching the diamond gains when:

 

1) RHO is 4-4 in the blacks

2) Clubs are 3-3

 

Not to mention that it allows us to delay our spade guess, which is a big gain (I believe we can do better than just playing spades from the top).

 

Specifically, if RHO shows up with 2-2 in the round suits, we are probably going to hook the spade and have a big edge there, losing to 3262 with no SJ only.

 

If RHO has club length then we don't need to guess spades, though we've gone down now to RHO being 2254 without Jx of spades, and with the DK on.

 

So assuming thats our line, pitching the D loses only to:

 

1) 2254 with no SJ on right, and with the DK

2) 3262 with no SJ on right, and with the DK

 

Edit: I guess 1255 and 1264 should be added in also

 

and even in the latter case we MIGHT choose to guess it at the end.

 

On the other hand pitching our club, cashing the spades from the top, and then hooking the diamond is going to lose to RHO having 4 spades with the J and no DK which is many possible shapes (4234, 4243, 4252). It also loses to an unlikely 2263 with the DK off.

 

So I really think the diamond spot is just gravy once RHO has the short hearts since they have black suit length so often.

[Jlall]

Basically, LHO is almost never 4-4 in the blacks, which is the main time when keeping the diamond hook alive helps us, becuase they also have 4 hearts, imo.

 

RHO however is often 4-4 in the blacks in which case pitching the diamond helps us a lot (since when he is, the DK is offside always).

[MFA]

Yes the better player was Geoff hehe. So really the question is, is the ten of diamond high enough to pitch both diamonds from hand and play some kind of squeeze, or low enough that it's better to simply pitch a club from hand and try to bring in either spades or diamonds? I'm pretty sure both players went for some squeeze and ended up with a spade guess at the end when they were (J)xx and (J)xxx which is also what I did when given the problem. I don't know if the diamond was onside but yay Fred will tell us.

Someone has KJ of diamonds in their hand 50 % of the time right? And in that case we are cold unless it's RHO who has KJ, and LHO guards both black suit. That is a huge extra edge I think.

If we cash the wrong black suit first, then I don't think the squeeze against ♦KJ + a four card black suit will work because of the entry position.

 

But discarding diamonds wins for sure against east having both black suits. Since hearts were 4-2 with 4 by west, it follows that if east has 4 of some black suit (overwhelmingly likely), it will be 50-50 who will have 4 of the remaining black suit (given it doesn't split either).

 

If the black squeeze alone gives us roughly a 50% chance, given none of the black suits run, it seems we should discard the diamond queen even if we had ♦32 on the other hand. Because that will give us 3 good chances: a black suit braking and a squeeze that alone is ~50% or perhaps better.

[Jlall]

Yes the better player was Geoff hehe. So really the question is, is the ten of diamond high enough to pitch both diamonds from hand and play some kind of squeeze, or low enough that it's better to simply pitch a club from hand and try to bring in either spades or diamonds? I'm pretty sure both players went for some squeeze and ended up with a spade guess at the end when they were (J)xx and (J)xxx which is also what I did when given the problem. I don't know if the diamond was onside but yay Fred will tell us.

Someone has KJ of diamonds in their hand 50 % of the time right? And in that case we are cold unless it's RHO who has KJ, and LHO guards both black suit. That is a huge extra edge I think.

If we cash the wrong black suit first, then I don't think the squeeze against ♦KJ + a four card black suit will work because of the entry position.

 

But discarding diamonds wins for sure against east having both black suits. Since hearts were 4-2 with 4 by west, it follows that if east has 4 of some black suit (overwhelmingly likely), it will be 50-50 who will have 4 of the remaining black suit (given it doesn't split either).

 

If the black squeeze alone gives us roughly a 50% chance, given none of the black suits run, it seems we should discard the diamond queen even if we had ♦32 on the other hand. Because that will give us 3 good chances: a black suit braking and a squeeze that alone is ~50% or perhaps better.

Yes that is the conclusion my rambling posts above eventually came to...heh. The DT really is not that important to this position.

[fred]

I haven't really been paying attention to what people have been writing, but I am fairly certain that there was an error in the original post that I suspect is relevant:

 

In the original deal, West was the one with the doubleton heart.

 

Fred Gitelman

Bridge Base Inc.

www.bridgebase.com

[Jlall]

I haven't really been paying attention to what people have been writing, but I am fairly certain that there was an error in the original post that I suspect is relevant:

 

In the original deal, West was the one with the doubleton heart.

 

Fred Gitelman

Bridge Base Inc.

www.bridgebase.com

Well that changes everything!

[dburn]

Without looking at other answers or thinking too hard, would incline to win opening lead, cash ♦A and (if ♦K has not appeared) draw trumps pitching diamonds, play ♣AKQ, ♠KA and the last heart, reducing to:

 

[hv=d=s&n=sxh10d10c&s=sq10hdcx]133|200|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

Fails at once if diamonds are 8-0, but someone might have bid in that case. Succeeds by force if:

 

Someone has ♠J singleton or doubleton (13 top tricks);

Clubs are 3-3 (thirteen different top tricks);

Someone has ♦K singleton (thirteen different different top tricks);

East has five or more spades (marked finesse);

East has four cards in each black suit (show-up squeeze);

East has four cards in one black suit and ♦KJ (different show-up squeeze);

West has ♦KJ and four or more spades (simple squeeze).

 

Also succeeds if none of the above applies, but I can guess spades in the ending. Total chance of success not easy to compute, but estimated as around 90% even with my legendary inability to guess correctly in a two-card ending.

[jdonn]

I haven't really been paying attention to what people have been writing, but I am fairly certain that there was an error in the original post that I suspect is relevant:

 

In the original deal, West was the one with the doubleton heart.

 

Fred Gitelman

Bridge Base Inc.

www.bridgebase.com

Well that changes everything!

Oops! Yes and west discarded 2 diamonds obv.

[MFA]

I haven't really been paying attention to what people have been writing, but I am fairly certain that there was an error in the original post that I suspect is relevant:

 

In the original deal, West was the one with the doubleton heart.

 

Fred Gitelman

Bridge Base Inc.

www.bridgebase.com

Well that changes everything!

Oops! Yes and west discarded 2 diamonds obv.

Much tougher now.

 

I still discard the diamonds and hope to find a way home. But I wouldn't do it without the ♦T.

 

3-3 is 32% while diamond K onside is 50%. West's failure to discard an 'idle 5th' is good news for my black suit chances.

 

Throwing a club will reduce me to my two shots with nothing extra, since I would simply have to take three rounds of spades and fall back on the diamond finesse.

 

So squeezes + hand reading should "lift me" from the 32% up to over 50%. I think it will.

West 4 spades + ♦KJ is a pretty decent chance.

East 4 spades + ♦KJ is also a good chance and will spare me the spade guess.

East 4 spades + 4 clubs is a very small extra chance.

 

Apart from that I have the hand reading left. If I'm faced with a spade guess at the end, I will probably play for split diamond honours, if my opponents are not too tricky. If they are too tricky, I don't think I could bare to hear east's laughter, when he keeps three little spades and a small diamond for the last 4 tricks, inducing me to finesse spades. :(

[MFA]

(...)

Succeeds by force if:

 

(...)

East has four cards in one black suit and ♦KJ (different show-up squeeze);

(...)

If east has ♦KJ and four clubs, we will have to cash spades before clubs to squeeze him. And vice versa. So in practice east will only get squeezed if he has ♦KJ + four spades, not ♦KJ + four clubs, since it's logical to cash clubs first.

[dburn]

(...)

Succeeds by force if:

 

(...)

East has four cards in one black suit and ♦KJ (different show-up squeeze);

(...)

If east has ♦KJ and four clubs, we will have to cash spades before clubs to squeeze him. And vice versa. So in practice east will only get squeezed if he has ♦KJ + four spades, not ♦KJ + four clubs, since it's logical to cash clubs first.

Quite right - that ought to have been "East has ♠Jxxx and ♦KJ". Having read other posts now and given the matter more thought, perhaps it was a mistake to give up on the diamond finesse before I knew how the hearts would divide. For example, if East has four hearts then black-suit squeezes against him won't work unless West has seven diamonds, and if (as I presume) South opened a strong club, maybe West would have bid with those.

 

For all that, I am pretty sure that at the table I would have played the line I gave in my earlier post. It has the significant advantage that in the vast majority of cases it saves me from having to think; moreover (depending on how much I have revealed about my hand during the bidding) it gives the opponents more chance to misdefend because they don't know what my actual problem is. Whether or not it would have worked I do not know, and I would not adopt it with a lower diamond than the ten in dummy. But in the final analysis, anyone who made the hand by taking the diamond finesse is either a much worse player than I am, or a much better one.

[fred]

When this hand actually came up, both declarers drew trump while discarding diamonds, cashed the Ace of diamonds, and tested clubs (West started with 4).

 

Then they cashed 2 spades ending in dummy (both followed small), played the last heart (discarding a club), and led a spade (East followed small of course).

 

At our table, neither the King nor the Jack of diamonds had appeared at this point. I think the same was true at the other table, but I am not certain.

 

In the 2-card ending, one declarer finessed East for the Jack of spades while the other declarer played for the drop.

 

Neither declarer was confident that they had made the "right" play. In fact, the declarer at our table shuffled his last two cards and (randomly) picked what turned out to be the winner!

 

I found that so amusing that I almost didn't mind losing 17 IMPs :(

 

At some point I will report the complete layout of the East-West hands.

 

Fred Gitelman

Bridge Base Inc.

www.bridgebase.com

[Jlall]

FWIW Joe told me "Yeah I was in a grand and obv I knew which card was which but I pretended to shuffle them like I was just guessing." Pretty sure I believe that as it is one of his standard mind tricks. He also said he only did it cuz it was against one of his best friends (I guess it was Brad!).

 

Didn't know the hand but now it all makes sense lol.

[fred]

FWIW Joe told me "Yeah I was in a grand and obv I knew which card was which but I pretended to shuffle them like I was just guessing." Pretty sure I believe that as it is one of his standard mind tricks. He also said he only did it cuz it was against one of his best friends (I guess it was Brad!).

 

Didn't know the hand but now it all makes sense lol.

And I thought I was amused before...

 

It occurred to me at the time that Joe might not be doing a "true shuffle", but it looked real to me. I was his screenmate and was paying attention (while trying not to make it look obvious that I was paying attention!).

 

Yes, Brad is the one who is Joe's very close friend, but I think I know him well enough to agree that he was likely telling you the truth about the (Jedi) mind trick that he played on us :(

 

Fred Gitelman

Bridge Base Inc.

www.bridgebase.com

[xcurt]

When this hand actually came up, both declarers drew trump while discarding diamonds, cashed the Ace of diamonds, and tested clubs (West started with 4).

 

Then they cashed 2 spades ending in dummy (both followed small), played the last heart (discarding a club), and led a spade (East followed small of course).

 

At our table, neither the King nor the Jack of diamonds had appeared at this point. I think the same was true at the other table, but I am not certain.

 

In the 2-card ending, one declarer finessed East for the Jack of spades while the other declarer played for the drop.

 

Neither declarer was confident that they had made the "right" play. In fact, the declarer at our table shuffled his last two cards and (randomly) picked what turned out to be the winner!

 

I found that so amusing that I almost didn't mind losing 17 IMPs :(

 

At some point I will report the complete layout of the East-West hands.

 

Fred Gitelman

Bridge Base Inc.

www.bridgebase.com

 

Assuming the defenders did a good job of playing their spot cards pseudo-randomly, and if I did this right, the drop is better by 11:10.

 

* West is known to have 4 clubs, 2 trumps.

* West is known to have 2 small spades.

* The other 5 cards are either {SJ, DHHxx}, {SJ, DHxxx}, or {DHHxxx}.

 

The combination with the SJ can be made in C(8,4)-C(6,4) ways (read choose 4 of the 8 diamonds, but not 4 of the 6 small diamonds).

 

The combination without the SJ can be made in C(8,5)-C(6,5) ways (read choose 5 of the 8 diamonds, but not 5 of the 6 small diamonds).

 

To do the math, go to wolframalpha.com and enter this expression in the box:

 

(Choose[8,4]-Choose[6,4])/(Choose[8,5]-Choose[6,5])

 

 

Edit -- this is interesting. The DT is good enough to reduce the chances of the drop significantly

 

If dummy has D8x or worse, West must have one of the diamonds above the 8 if he has 5 of them, so East can never be shown up between diamonds and spades, and the drop is better by 5:4 (1.25:1)

 

If dummy has D9x, the drop is better by 13:11 (about 1.18)

 

If dummy has the T, see above.

 

If dummy has the J, it's a tossup.

 

So East is being partially shown up, but not enough to compensate for the inherent advantage of the drop.

[Cascade]

* The other 5 cards are either {SJ, DHHxx}, {SJ, DHxxx}, or {DHHxxx}.

There are only two cards left so west can not have started with ♠J ♦KJxx as then a diamond honour would have been played.

[gnasher]

In the 2-card ending, we don't need to do any arithmetic to know that, without anything else to guide us, the drop is better than the finesse.

 

West is known to have four clubs and two hearts; East is know to have four hearts and two clubs. Whatever might be known about the diamond layout is also symmetrical. The number of distributions where the drop gains is equal to the number of distributions where the finesse gains. A specific even distribution is slightly more likely than a specific uneven distribution. Therefore the drop is better.

 

I'm not saying that knowing the actual difference in probabilities isn't useful - it is. If you're considering relying on card-reading rather than the odds, it helps to know how much of an edge you need.