Competitive Auction

[jonottawa]

Here's another hand from the final Swiss in Reno.

 

IMPs, favorable

 

♠J7x ♥8xxx ♦Q9 ♣A6xx

 

1♣ - 1♦ - 1NT - P

2♣ - 2♦ - P - P

2♥ - P - 3♣ - ?

 

Please explain your reasoning.

[Pict]

I pass.

 

My reasoning is that this is not MP.

[jdonn]

3♦ and this is the ultimate wtp, just like when you gave it to me in Reno. Passing is awful, in fact this hand should think about raising 2♦ to 3♦ directly if anything. Btw I think I was a little harsh regarding the 2♦ rebid when I talked to you the first time, it's aggressive and ok.

[wclass___]

Partner is likely to be 3-3(+) in majors.

 

JTx and 8xxx opposite is just terrible.

 

And 1NT on my right, humm, very easy pass for me.

[jonottawa]

Food for thought:

 

What do you think LHO's shape is? (I think there are very strong clues as to his exact shape.) Does this influence your decision?

[Pict]

3343 was my decision.

 

(or inverse if you mean the other opponent - diagrams and who opponed are good for people like me)

[gnasher]

Partner is likely to be 3-3(+) in majors.

Wouldn't he have doubled 2♣ with that?

 

I think that the most likely shapes are

          3343

4261              3424

          3415

[jonottawa]

More food for thought:

 

Have you figured out LHO's exact shape?

 

I think that lets you figure out RHO's exact shape, no?

[quiddity]

LHO ran from 1NT and bid 2H instead of reopening with a double. I would guess he's more likely 3406.

[jonottawa]

You're on the right track. Who at the table is most likely to have 4 ♠?

[wclass___]

Partner is likely to be 3-3(+) in majors.

Wouldn't he have doubled 2♣ with that?

 

I think that the most likely shapes are

          3343

4261              3424

          3415

Yes, you are most probably right...

 

I was thinking about 6331, but didn't mention that it leaves one of opponents with 4♠. Hmm, but LHO could still be 5440, maybe that explain why he didn't double 2 ♦. Bidding 2♥ with 5431 feels a bit strange for me, you give up possibility to penalize opponents, and he hardly wants to be in 4-3, when you have to ruff ♦ in your own hand, although he has same problem with 5440.

 

Anyway, if partner has 4261 3♦ contract is way more appealing, although i am still inclined to pass, as i see perspective in defense.

[quiddity]

You're on the right track. Who at the table is most likely to have 4 ♠?

Probably parter - LHO showed clubs and hearts, RHO might have bid 1S instead of 1NT with 4 spades.

[jdonn]

The analysis of the shapes is a worthwhile exercise but is not needed to know that raising partner is right. Our hand is SO GOOD for this auction. Even the 9 of diamonds and jack of spades are likely to be working opposite length in partner's hand.

[jonottawa]

If partner has 4 ♠, wouldn't he have bid 2♠ over 2♥ (since you're a heavy favorite to have ♠ on this auction, with his RHO sounding like he's 6-4 in the rounds and his LHO ostensibly denying 4♠ when he bid 1N.)

 

Granted, he could have 4 bad ♠ perhaps and a bare minimum.

[jonottawa]

My analysis (fwiw):

 

 

LHO rates to be 4-4-0-5 as both partner and RHO have had opportunities to bid ♠ and declined. This would also explain why LHO pulled 1N and why he didn't reopen with a double.

 

If you accept that LHO is 4-4-0-5, RHO rates to be 3-3-5-2. He didn't raise 2C to 3C. His ♦ aren't that good, so he likely would have bid 3♣ with 3-3-4-3.

 

So would you rather defend a 7-card club fit or declare an 8 card Diamond fit breaking 5-0, both at the 3-level?

 

At any rate, I thought it was an interesting problem.

 

The hand was given to Josh, Justin, Justin's dad, Mark Lair, Marin Marinov and (not by me) Eric Rodwell. All bid 3♦ quickly.

 

Partner's hand:

 

Ax Qxx AJT7xx xx

 

(Opener was 4-4-0-5, 3DX went -300, win 8 vs the spade game our teammates bid.)

 

[quiddity]

If partner has 4 ♠, wouldn't he have bid 2♠ over 2♥ (since you're a heavy favorite to have ♠ on this auction, with his RHO sounding like he's 6-4 in the rounds and his LHO ostensibly denying 4♠ when he bid 1N.)

 

Granted, he could have 4 bad ♠ perhaps and a bare minimum.

No, I don't think so. Quite possibly I have hearts and clubs on this auction. Why would partner unilaterally sign us up for a 4-3 spade fit or a 3-level diamond contract? He already showed a diamond suit and values, and he trusts us to work out the spades and do something intelligent.

 

I think it's far more likely for partner to hold 4 spades - he did not choose another bid, he chose to pass. LHO chose another bid (2H) instead of showing spades.

[jdonn]

As far as the analysis, I think RHO could have four bad spades if his hand is balanced, and that RHO won't necessarily raise a round earlier with 3343, so I don't think it's nearly so automatic the hand is like this. Anyway partner had an 11 (11!) count and diamonds were 0-5 and you cost yourself 2 imps by raising. I'll stick with Rodwell thx. I still don't find this at all close.

[jjbrr]

3♦

[wclass___]

Are you really aiming to get more than +2 by raising? What i hear is how damn good this hand is and how right the 3♦ bid is, but it would be nice if someone explained his reasoning, and what kind of plus score are you actually aiming at? Part score swing? 3NT? 3♦x=? 5♦? After shape analyses they all feel quite distant possibilities, so what is it?

[jdonn]

Part score swing?

that

 

Look at the list of players (and please feel free to remove me). They all bid 3♦ and they all bid it quickly. Why do you think that is? I believe the problem is you grossly underestimate the hand and suit shown by rebidding 2♦ opposite a silent partner.

[mike777]

Here's another hand from the final Swiss in Reno.

 

IMPs, favorable

 

♠J7x ♥8xxx ♦Q9 ♣A6xx

 

1♣ - 1♦ - 1NT - P

2♣ - 2♦ - P - P

2♥ - P - 3♣ - ?

 

Please explain your reasoning.

good post ty...

 

as a nonexpert I bid 3d but a very slow 3d....break in tempo.

 

After thinking for a bit......easy 3d now.

 

my thinking../.non expert...

 

 

 

sst=3

whcp=`16-18=minus 1

 

 

13-3-1= nine tricks.

---------

 

 

ugg I see I was far off sigh...off by two tricks ...sigh

 

pard has 2clubs ...I estimated...zero clubs.

[Codo]

Part score swing?

that

 

Look at the list of players (and please feel free to remove me). They all bid 3♦ and they all bid it quickly. Why do you think that is? I believe the problem is you grossly underestimate the hand and suit shown by rebidding 2♦ opposite a silent partner.

Maybe- just maybe the quick answer of world class players can be worse then what Jon finds out after several minutes of thinking about such a hand?

 

Maybe, just maybe the pros have other criteria for a 2♦ rebid as Jons partner has?

 

FWIW, I am really surprised about all these clear statements for 3 ♦. The law is surely not at our side and the suits are not breaking.

[Fluffy]

My analysis (fwiw):

 

 

LHO rates to be 4-4-0-5 as both partner and RHO have had opportunities to bid ♠ and declined. This would also explain why LHO pulled 1N and why he didn't reopen with a double.

 

If you accept that LHO is 4-4-0-5, RHO rates to be 3-3-5-2. He didn't raise 2C to 3C. His ♦ aren't that good, so he likely would have bid 3♣ with 3-3-4-3.

 

So would you rather defend a 7-card club fit or declare an 8 card Diamond fit breaking 5-0, both at the 3-level?

 

At any rate, I thought it was an interesting problem.

 

The hand was given to Josh, Justin, Justin's dad, Mark Lair, Marin Marinov and (not by me) Eric Rodwell. All bid 3♦ quickly.

 

Partner's hand:

 

Ax Qxx AJT7xx xx

 

(Opener was 4-4-0-5, 3DX went -300, win 8 vs the spade game our teammates bid.)

You are basing too much assumptions on who has the 4th spade and that.

 

If you were at the table you could reinforce your assumptions by the confidence of the bid of 1NT, and slow bids of 2♣ and 2♥, but as it is I think you really have no clue where the 4th spade is.

[mcphee]

Looks to me like I should raise D. I have some decent cards for partner and did not mention them while he took it upon himself to bid 2D where he might be facing a penalty double given the NT bid. If he bid because he thought I did not hear him bid 2D that is too bad. I believe raise is pretty good here, what more am I supposed to have than this?

 

As for who holds the S etc, who cares. Why am I going to strain my mini brain on some part score problem. I know this, if they take time to double 3D I will not be unhappy at all.

[gnasher]

I think this is a pass.

 

When partner bid 2♦, both opponents were limited, so he was already playing me for some values. I think his actual hand is a normal minimum for his action.

 

In high-card strength, I probably have about what he's expecting. Is what I have well placed? Not particularly - ♦Q will be worth a trick, but ♣A is probably opposite a small singleton. Having length in both of the suits bid on my left means that there's some risk of an overruff.

 

The upside of bidding is limited - for it to gain significantly, we need both partscores to make. Often when you compete on a partscore hand you have the extra chance that they'll compete further when they shouldn't, but that's not going to happen on this deal.