Horrible

[gnasher]

KQx AKQJxx xx xx[hv=d=w&v=b&s=skqxhakqjxxdxxcxx]133|100|Scoring: IMP

4♣ pass 5♣[/hv]

[gwnn]

I will bid 5H against all principles and instinct. I have hearts and I don't want to defend 5C, doubled or undoubled. But it is a pretty horrible spot with this balancedish hand.

[rogerclee]

Pass, we are balanced with 6 trumps and don't have a great hand and it's the 5 level.

[Fluffy]

I always bid my solid suits at least once, there has to be a something more extreme to preclude me.

[Codo]

5 Heart, these bids works so often, I have to bid.

[ArtK78]

IMPs? Both vul? Automatic 5♥ bid.

 

This could be a double game swing.

 

I would expect partner to have zero or one clubs. Since he has almost no high cards, he can't take a call over 4♣. However, if he really has zero clubs, we are making 10 or 11 tricks depending on whether he has a trick.

 

Worst case, we go for 800 opposite 600. Best case, we go for +850 opposite -600.

 

(Truly worst case? Partner has a 3172 zero count, would lead a heart against 5♣ and the opponent's hearts are 3-3. We go for 1100 and would have been plus against 5♣. But that would be so extreme as to be dismissed.)

[655321]

I would bid 5♥ too, but my feelings about it are much like gwnn's. I hate to bid 5/5, and to do it with such a balanced hand... but double can't be right.

 

If RHO has raised without clubs, but with outside cards then we will be doubled and go down, hopefully they would have made 5♣ in those cases. If RHO has raised with trumps, we should be OK. Anyway, I hope that somebody is making 11 tricks enough of the time that bidding should work out in the long run.

[jjbrr]

My first instinct was pass. We need a lot of stuff from partner to make 11 tricks here, and we don't need much from him to take 3 tricks.

[wank]

i'd be passing and not worrying about it - i can imagine both contracts being off much easier than i can imagine both making.

[gwnn]

Art you are a bit too dramatic in my humble opinion. I think it will happen quite often that neither contract makes and a double game swing would happen much less often. I would say it would happen around 30% that neither makes 10% both makes 60% at least 1 of them makes.

[phil_20686]

Art you are a bit too dramatic in my humble opinion. I think it will happen quite often that neither contract makes and a double game swing would happen much less often. I would say it would happen around 30% that neither makes 10% both makes 60% at least 1 of them makes.

dunno about your %, but i think that a lot of hands that bid 5c are just strong balanced hands with a stiff club, partner should have a chunky suit for 1st in vul preempt. Alternatively, he could have Kx clubs asnd cashing dfiamonds, and just bet on making a ton of tricks on thei right lead.

 

I think if i was going to take any action on this hand, it would be dble. if partner passes i have probably done the right thing. If he pulls to a major i ahve almost certainly done better than bidding 5h. If he bids diamonds its pretty unpleasant, but ill live with it.

 

Still I would most likely pass. Add a diamond honour and i'm in for dble.

[jdonn]

My first instinct is to double. I'm too balanced to expect my side to make and too strong to expect their side to make.

[wank]

My first instinct is to double. I'm too balanced to expect my side to make and too strong to expect their side to make.

i agree with the sentiment, but i don't expect 5Cx to be going down badly. my nightmare scenario if i double is that it goes 5D from p then if you pull to 5H you risk getting 5S from p - no fun there.

 

nasty things can happen if you double. i think the safest option is to go quietly

[jdonn]

He isn't pulling, and if he is it isn't to 5♦, and if he does he will pass 5♥. I promise.

[hanp]

I don't like double. 5CX is going to lose more than it wins and I'm not sure that I'll be happy when partner pulls. If he pulls to 5D we will often have converted a plus to a minus. This is very different from a 4450 13-count, where we might not do well on the hands where partner passes our double, but we'll do very well on the hands where he bids.

 

5H could be right but I would pass.

[gwnn]

dunno about your %, but i think that a lot of hands that bid 5c are just strong balanced hands with a stiff club, partner should have a chunky suit for 1st in vul preempt. Alternatively, he could have Kx clubs asnd cashing dfiamonds, and just bet on making a ton of tricks on thei right lead.

We have the following cards missing (assuming RHO indeed has a small singleton club):

♠AJ

♦AKQJ

 

Are you trying to say that "a lot of" RHO's hands are like:

 

AJxx

xxx

AQxxx

x

 

?

 

Do you think this strategy is profitable? Do you bid like this or do you just mean to say that people in general bid like this?

 

Alternatively

 

xxxx

x

AKQJxx

Kx

 

I mean yes sure this is possible but wouldn't you agree that the single most likely scenario is RHO has 3 or 4 clubs and some shape and some points?

[hanp]

The balanced hand with a stiff club part is a bit confusing to me.

 

I agree that the 5C bidder will often have a strong balanced hand with only a few clubs, like 2. Axxx xx AKxxx Kx would be a 5C bid wouldn't it?

[benlessard]

Double is clearly better than 5H (not close IMO) , but i prefer pass. I have no reason to think 5C is a good spot for them.

[straube]

I like dbl. I don't know whether 5C is making or not, but I know that RHO doesn't think that 6C is probably making. So dbl loses when they make and gains when they go down one or two.

 

Dbl is insurance in case partner has the balance of points and RHO is making an advanced save. Say I had been second to speak and the auction went (4C)-4H-(5C). Is partner more likely to bid 5H or dbl? I don't know, but I would guess dbl.

[mikeh]

I hate double....I think it by far the worst of 3 possible alternatives.

 

Partner will almost always pass. And to think that rho is furthering the preempt rather than bidding to make seems incredibly committal. I wouldn't mind so much if I felt that the downside to defending was 4 imps, but my hand suggests that if the opps are making, they may make an overtrick......partner will rarely lead hearts...he will tend to lead from whatever strength or whatever honour-containing sequence he has....not to mention that even with a heart lead, declarer may be void (I put that as a very minor factor).

 

If I knew that partner would pull when it is double-dummy right to do so, I'd be far happier, but most partners remember and honour the dictum that the 5 level belongs to the opps, as it usually does.

 

As for 5♥ or pass: the problem description is very appropriate. Both actions are, ironically, even more committal than double....indeed, the strongest point in favour of double is that it preserves a chance for partner to save us from the consequences of our action by holding the right hand and taking the right action.

 

I can't stand the idea of passing....it is too dangerous to pass. Unlikely tho it may be, it is possible to construct hands on which both sides make game, including layouts on which partner may well guess to pass the double.

 

So I bid 5♥....and await dummy (not to mention RHO's next call) with trepidation.

[jdonn]

So we have "hate double because partner will pull" and "hate double because partner will pass". Maybe like in politics that is a good sign. Anyway I still like double a lot, by far the most.

[mikeh]

So we have "hate double because partner will pull" and "hate double because partner will pass". Maybe like in politics that is a good sign. Anyway I still like double a lot, by far the most.

No: I hate double because he will (usually) pass: if he pulls....it may work out, it may not....but if I knew he would probably pull, I'd be far happier with double, even tho he may well be 'wrong'. Any action has huge downsides...the downside of his pulling may be large, but the upside is also large. I don't see the same upside to defending 5♣ doubled.

 

Put it this way: if I knew he'd almost always pull unless he has a decent defensive hand (ie my double was STRONGLY takeout) I'd double notwithstanding the obvious risks....it is more flexible than bidding and has more upside and the same downside. But a 5-level double is not, in my books, strongly takeout....a good rule of thumb (imo) is to take it as showing more or less the equivalent of a strong notrump, altho with no implication of a club trick. It may be less, it may be more....but I want partner to make a decision based on some expectation and that's my 'rule' for the expectation I want him to have.

 

This hand has the strength but not the defensive value suggested by the rule.....heck, we can't even be sure we can beat grand.

[wclass___]

Pass.

[MFA]

I agree with mikeh.

[mikeh]

Double is clearly better than 5H (not close IMO) , but i prefer pass. I have no reason to think 5C is a good spot for them.

The fact that the vulnerable opponents voluntarily contracted for 11 tricks and that you don't hold 3 (or indeed even any) sure tricks on defence may be a clue :)