drop or finesse

[Mbodell]

[hv=d=s&v=e&n=skj64hakjdt5ckqj8&s=sat852h8543dq73c7]133|200|Scoring: XIMP

P - P - 1♣ - P

1♠ - X - XX - 2♦

2♠ - P - 4♠ all pass[/hv]

 

T1♦6 5 A 3

T2♦J Q K T

T3♥T A 2 3

T4♠K 7 2 3

T5♠J 9 ?

 

Edited: fixed auction to XX and 2♦.

[Gerben42]

I would finesse, but probably not much % difference.

[whereagles]

Am I seeing this right? LHO doubled and RHO came up with ♦AK? Well, it would seem LHO has

 

Qx

Qxxx

Jxxx

Axx

 

but then again, doesn't it seem that

 

x

Qxxx

Jxxx

Axxx

 

is more like a take out double? It depends on who LHO is, I guess... probably finesse.

[655321]

Am I seeing this right? LHO doubled and RHO came up with ♦AK?

No.

[A2003]

Barry Crane System Notes

 

Missing four to the Queen

 

Always a problem or do you always play for the drop? According to the rule, you check your own distribution first. If your combined hands contain a singleton, you play for this suit to break 3-1 too. If you have two singletons, they balance and so will your mystery suit - play for the drop. If you are 3-0 or 2-1 in a side suit, this also will balance - again play for the 2-2.

 

According to above system notes, finesse.

[655321]

Agree with finesse slightly better, but there doesn't seem much in it.

 

Please ignore the nonsense in the Barry Crane system notes, thanks.

[karlson]

I would hook too. The middle of the three options seems about right. If you find out that they open all/most balanced 11s, then I think the hook is better by a lot.

[Phil]

I played this from the short side with Reverse Flannery sequence.

 

Steve Cooper led a low heart that looked pretty suspicious since my pard also showed hearts.

[helene_t]

If your combined hands contain a singleton, you play for this suit to break 3-1 too.

Yeah right. And if you saw a black cat crossing the road from the left side when driving to the bridge club, you know that all suits split 4-1 or worse.

 

A priori the drop is better by a very small margin. The double gives LHO fewer slots for spades, though, making the finesse more attractive. Since the double also gives left some HCPs that in itself makes ♠Q more likely to be with LHO. Altogether the finesse must be better but no substantially so I think. Maybe somewhere between 55% and 60%.

[Cascade]

hook

[cherdanno]

A priori the drop is better by a very small margin. The double gives LHO fewer slots for spades, though, making the finesse more attractive. Since the double also gives left some HCPs that in itself makes ♠Q more likely to be with LHO. Altogether the finesse must be better but no substantially so I think. Maybe somewhere between 55% and 60%.

Disagree with your hcp reasoning. LHO is a passed hand. I don't think he is any more likely to double with 11 hcp and spade wastage than with 9 hcp and a more pure hand.

[Pict]

If we consider vacant spaces when West has eight red cards, and possibly nine, it looks like 60% or so to finesse against East.

 

This seems like a big plus to me.

[Fluffy]

A priori the drop is better by a very small margin. The double gives LHO fewer slots for spades, though, making the finesse more attractive. Since the double also gives left some HCPs that in itself makes ♠Q more likely to be with LHO. Altogether the finesse must be better but no substantially so I think. Maybe somewhere between 55% and 60%.

Disagree with your hcp reasoning. LHO is a passed hand. I don't think he is any more likely to double with 11 hcp and spade wastage than with 9 hcp and a more pure hand.

Depends on the level Arend, I've seen a double of this with 3433 11 HCP many times :)

 

I would also finese.

 

The Barry Crane rule is wrong.

[Free]

I'd play for the drop, can't explain why. Maybe because I don't believe in the "law of symmetry" :) And even if I would, chance is that RHO has singleton ♥, so trumps would split 2-2.

[phil_20686]

Why didnt i play a club to find out where the ace of clubs is? is lho an expert who would routinely open AK, A?

 

If lho was a true expert i would be suspicious of the psychology of the ten of hearts switch? Why try to make us take a finesse he knows we cannot possibly need? Particularly when he has a no cost diamond continuation. Probably he is trying to persuade us to take the drop? I cannot imagine he pre protect on:

 

Qx

T9xx

AKxx

xxx

 

I would hook, and I dont think its close.

[Fluffy]

Why didnt i play a club to find out where the ace of clubs is? is lho an expert who would routinely open AK, A?

Because if LHO has it he might give RHO a heart ruff

[phil_20686]

Always a problem or do you always play for the drop? According to the rule, you check your own distribution first. If your combined hands contain a singleton, you play for this suit to break 3-1 too. If you have two singletons, they balance and so will your mystery suit - play for the drop. If you are 3-0 or 2-1 in a side suit, this also will balance - again play for the 2-2.

The cards are a random collection. Thus however I split them up into groupds of 13 cards i still end up with a truly random hand. Suppose I take half the pack and deal them into two opposite hands. Then I deal the other half into the two opposition hands. How can they way I dealt the first half have any impact on the second half? It' can't. Ergo...barry crane talking nonsense.

 

It *might* have some relevance if you were playing with hand shuffled cards. As bridge tends to organise the cards into groups of 4 of one suit, if they are not sufficiently well shuffled then they will still be loosley grouped into groups of 4, which will tend to produce some symmettry to the hands. Particuarly if you use overhand shuffles, which to not disorder the cards much at all.

[phil_20686]

Why didnt i play a club to find out where the ace of clubs is? is lho an expert who would routinely open AK, A?

Because if LHO has it he might give RHO a heart ruff

Good point.

[hanp]

It looks like RHO has exactly 4 diamond and therefore at most 4 clubs. Since LHO followed on the first round of spades we know RHO has at least 2 hearts. So I don't think we should fear a heart ruff.

 

It won't hurt to play the club the club king. On a good day you'll be able to read the complete count before having to guess spades.

 

If RHO found a pass with Qxx x AJxxx xxxx and LHO doubled with 5 hearts and 3 diamonds I pay off.

[Fluffy]

where are you getting the club count from?

[hanp]

From playing clubs.

[Fluffy]

From playing clubs.

yeah well, but if rho has ♠Qxx ♥x ♦AJxx ♣xxxxx you will get the club count a bit late.

[hanp]

Hopefully the opponents bid in a way that I would find reasonable. As I think that it would be normal to make a takeout double with 1435 shape, I would find it strange if RHO has longer clubs than diamonds.

 

I realize that I could be wrong, the opponents often bid differently than I would expect. But I'm taking that chance as I think that it is fairly small and the chance that I can get the hand right after playing clubs, hearts and diamonds is quite large.

[Mbodell]

[hv=d=s&v=e&n=skj64hakjdt5ckqj8&w=s3hqt976dk864cat2&e=sq97h2daj92c96543&s=sat852h8543dq73c7]399|300|Scoring: XIMP

here were the actual hands

finesse wins

playing on clubs is no good[/hv]

 

I, of course, played for the drop. And went back and forth in my mind which is better after the fact but then decided the finesse is probably much better.

[Fluffy]

Hopefully the opponents bid in a way that I would find reasonable. As I think that it would be normal to make a takeout double with 1435 shape, I would find it strange if RHO has longer clubs than diamonds.

:P