What's the safest line?

[Siegmund]

[hv=d=s&v=n&n=skhj98dt754cak753&s=sathakq752dkj6ct2]133|200|Scoring: MP[/hv]

 

You're in 6♥. The lead is a diamond to the ace and the ♦9 back. What is your best chance for the contract? You have several choicesas to how many trump to pull vs. how many entries to the clubs to keep.

 

Is your answer different if you are in 4♥ and just want the maximum number of overtricks?

[whereagles]

you can probably calculate real odds on this one, but I'm too sleepy to do it.. lol

 

anyway, cya all tomorrow LOL

[PhantomSac]

Win king, cash one trump. Play AK of clubs and a club. If RHO follows ruff high. If clubs 3-3 claim. If RHO shows out ruff low and claim (trump to jack, club ruff, pull trump, spade).

 

If RHO followed to the club and LHO showed out, play a trump to the jack. If LHO shows out on that ruff a club and claim. If RHO shows out, you are down 1.

 

If you have a sick soul read/reasonable count you can hook the heart 9 if LHO has 2 clubs, but you risk down 2 which will be awful. If you figure out LHO has 3 diamonds and 2 clubs and you judge him to be unlikely to have 6 spades then you can go for it though.

 

If you know LHO cannot be 6142, you can try to delay the guess and play a spade to the king, ruff a club high, cash a spade and then lead a trump. This gives up on 6142/7132 though, so you have to have a good reason to know that LHO does not have that shape.

[PhantomSac]

Did LHO have the chance to overcall 2S/1S over 1H? That would affect my play a lot. If I got the count of 3-2 in the minors for LHO (like if they played 3/5th or w/e), I would go for the hook if they had that chance. If I was sure LHO had 3 diamonds then I would delay the guess as long as possible, but I'd probably hook since I don't expect many to be in this contract, so -2 instead of -1 is not a hgue deal, and it is quite percentage to hook at that point imo.

[Pict]

I'd take K♦, A♣, A♥ and I think I'm OK so long as clubs are 42 - I can handle hearts 30 either way.

 

Edit: handling trumps 31 is arithmetically more correct.

[Siegmund]

Is there a simple way to put into words why pulling only 1 round of trump is better than pulling 2?

 

The two lines I was trying to decide between were pulling 2 rounds (if trumps are 2-2 its now easy to pick up 4-2 clubs), and if trumps are 3-1, I thought CAK, ruff high, HJ to pull last trump, was better than pulling the 3rd round immediately and only making if clubs are 3-3.

 

(I was defending the hand, at the table, but declarer was in 4 and was so busy whining about not being in slam that he didn't make even a token effort at making six.)

 

Edited to add: yes, you opened 1H and LHO passed.

[rogerclee]

I think Justin miscounted dummy's entries.

[quiddity]

The two lines I was trying to decide between were pulling 2 rounds (if trumps are 2-2 its now easy to pick up 4-2 clubs), and if trumps are 3-1, I thought CAK, ruff high, HJ to pull last trump, was better than pulling the 3rd round immediately and only making if clubs are 3-3.

This is a fairly straightforward comparison. You have pulled two rounds of trump, RHO showing out on the second round, and you have to decide whether to pull a third round (line 1) or go after clubs (line 2).

 

If clubs are 3-3, both lines make.

 

If clubs are 4-2, line 1 goes for -50. Line 2 makes for +980. This will swing a full matchpoint against each pair who stopped in game.

 

If clubs are 5-1, line 1 goes for -50. Line 2 goes for -100. This will not swing any points against pairs who stopped in game.

 

Since case 2 is the most likely and it involves a larger matchpoint swing, you should choose line 2.