Nightmare

[PFormaini]

PARTNER opens a PRECISION 2♦ (showing a 4-4-4-1 or 4-4-0-5 hand, any shortness, probably no 5-card MAJOR, 11-15 HCP.)

 

RHO overcalls 7NT. RHO is an expert and highly knowledgeable about the odds in bridge and

 

And you are gazing at the given hand.

 

What is your plan?

[PFormaini]

[hv=s=sq32hq32dq32cj432]133|100|[/hv]

 

Sorry - THIS is the hand you hold for the abovepoll.

[hrothgar]

If the auction is to be believed, then declarer MUST have three aces and what he believes to be a running suit.

 

If declarer REALLY had a Precision 2♦ (which shows Diamond shortness, not any shortness, then he should hold something like the following)

 

♠ A

♥ A

♦ AKJxxxxxxx

♣ A

 

You've specified that declarer can have ANY shortness. In this case, I want to minimize the chance that I lead declarers long suit.

 

We can exclude a hand like

 

♠ AK

♥ A

♦ A

♣ AKQxxxxxx

 

because this doesn't leave enough points for partner to open.

 

At the end of this day, it a would seem that this boils down to whether declarer has extra length in his long suit OR a side suit King. Hard to say which is more likely.

 

I suspect that this is a good hand for a simulation...

[PFormaini]

I suspect you are correct in that. (It is being used as the basis for a humorous article for BRIDGE WORLD magazine.

 

I believe, however, that ONE of the 10 strategies above will, on average, lead to a higher probability of gain than any of the others.

 

I just want to see if any of the mathematical mavens here can come up with reasoning for one choice over the others.

 

(Of course, at the table, you just KNOW that whichever suit you choose will be right into the jaws of declarer's concealed 10-card )or, if a club, 9-card) 'running' suit - and it will take several bystanders to drag partner off of you. :rolleyes:

[hrothgar]

I suspect you are correct in that. (It is being used as the basis for a humorous article for BRIDGE WORLD magazine.

 

I believe, however, that ONE of the 10 strategies above will, on average, lead to a higher probability of gain than any of the others.

 

I just want to see if any of the mathematical mavens here can come up with reasoning for one choice over the others.

 

(Of course, at the table, you just KNOW that whichever suit you choose will be right into the jaws of declarer's concealed 10-card )or, if a club, 9-card) 'running' suit - and it will take several bystanders to drag partner off of you. :rolleyes:

Given the conditions that you specify, then you must be arguing in favor of a club lead...

[PFormaini]

Really?

 

I'm not sure why - since AKQ10xxxxx is far MORE likely to run than AKJxxxxxxx - the odds being nearly 22% for a 3-0 break missing 3 cards - as opposed to only about 8.5% for a 4-0 break missing 4.

 

So an expert would be MORE likely to assume that the 9 card club suit would run (making a club lead LESS attractive against an expert) than the 10 card suit (making one of those a MORE attractive lead), since the expert would assume from the odds that there was less chance of one of the 10-card suits running than the 9 card suit running.

 

(Just go to this site that gives the odds and compare "Qxx" to "Jxxx".)

 

http://www.automaton.gr/tt/en/OddsTbl.htm

 

So the odds would seem to favor the expert having the 9-card club suit rather than one of the 3 10-card suits - making the club lead LESS attractive than any of the others.

 

Right?

[cloa513]

Really?

 

I'm not sure why - since AKQ10xxxxx is far MORE likely to run than AKJxxxxxxx - the odds being nearly 22% for a 3-0 break missing 3 cards - as opposed to only about 8.5% for a 4-0 break missing 4.

 

So an expert would be MORE likely to assume that the 9 card club suit would run (making a club lead LESS attractive against an expert) than the 10 card suit (making one of those a MORE attractive lead), since the expert would assume from the odds that there was less chance of one of the 10-card suits running than the 9 card suit running.

 

(Just go to this site that gives the odds and compare "Qxx" to "Jxxx".)

 

http://www.automaton.gr/tt/en/OddsTbl.htm

 

So the odds would seem to favor the expert having the 9-card club suit rather than one of the 3 10-card suits - making the club lead LESS attractive than any of the others.

 

Right?

But if he has those clubs then he must have one loser in the other suits. Ax unless partner opened with less than 11 HCP.

[PFormaini]

Really?

 

I'm not sure why - since AKQ10xxxxx is far MORE likely to run than AKJxxxxxxx - the odds being nearly 22% for a 3-0 break missing 3 cards - as opposed to only about 8.5% for a 4-0 break missing 4.

 

So an expert would be MORE likely to assume that the 9 card club suit would run (making a club lead LESS attractive against an expert) than the 10 card suit (making one of those a MORE attractive lead), since the expert would assume from the odds that there was less chance of one of the 10-card suits running than the 9 card suit running.

 

(Just go to this site that gives the odds and compare "Qxx" to "Jxxx".)

 

http://www.automaton.gr/tt/en/OddsTbl.htm

 

So the odds would seem to favor the expert having the 9-card club suit rather than one of the 3 10-card suits - making the club lead LESS attractive than any of the others.

 

Right?

But if he has those clubs then he must have one loser in the other suits. Ax unless partner opened with less than 11 HCP.

That is true.

 

So we have arguments that tend to negate each other.

 

If we trust partner not to violate system requirements, then a club lead looks best, since RHO is LESS likely to hold 9 clubs and 4 side suit winners than the 10 card suit and three Aces.

 

Even though the odds are much higher that the 9 card suit to the AKQ will run than the 10 card suit to the AK will run.......

 

Which is why the hand is such a......nightmare. :D

[jdonn]

Did we clarify whether partner must have diamond shortness (precision 2♦) or might have any shortness?

[PFormaini]

Partner may be short anywhere (though since we know that RHO has all the remaining cards in ONE of our suits, partner MUST be void somewhere - so since they will not have a 5 card major, they must be 0-4-4-5, 0,4-5-4, 4-0-5-4, 4-0-4-5, 4-4-0-5, or 4-4-5-0.

 

In other words, they can be void in ANY suit, but hold 5 cards only in a minor. Otherwise they would open 1 of a major.

[cloa513]

♦What if declarer has

AK of two other suits and

such

♥AK

♠AK

 

♣ AKQ10xxxxx

 

Logically 7 ♣ is OK contract but if he bids that he is inviting 7♦ sacrifice

[whereagles]

Double and lead a spade. Just because.

[CSGibson]

Really?

 

I'm not sure why - since AKQ10xxxxx is far MORE likely to run than AKJxxxxxxx - the odds being nearly 22% for a 3-0 break missing 3 cards - as opposed to only about 8.5% for a 4-0 break missing 4.

you're talking about a 3-0 break between 2 opponents, not a 3-0-0 break between two opponents and a partner, one of the oppponents being known to have 1 or 0 of the suit. Your percentages are wrong, and either way opponent will bid the grand, whether it's as you said, at worst 22%, or as I say, much better odds than that.

[ggwhiz]

The old myth in Montreal was "when in doubt, lead clubs against slams".

 

This smacks of a Quebec City expert with the 9-card club suit and a belief in divine intervention for any other loser.

[lmilne]

edit: nonsense

 

double and lead a queen seems best at first glance

[Siegmund]

At MPs, I like double and leading a major. I do think declarer is overwhelmingly likely to hold clubs - even AKQ-8 is likely to be treated as 'running' while AK-9 in something else might not be. I could be persuaded to double and lead any of the three non-club suits at random.

 

At IMPs/total points it's close to a pass if NV. I am risking 270 to to gain 50 or 100, and I have a hard time being sure I am going to lead the right suit the necessary 85% of the time.

 

Of course there isn't a poll option for shuffling 2 or 3 cards together for the caddy to pick so I'm voting the spade.

 

Edited to add: I find it hard to believe that ANYbody's partner doesn't EVER fib about having 11HCP.

[lmilne]

At MPs, I like double and leading a major. I do think declarer is overwhelmingly likely to hold clubs - even AKQ-8 is likely to be treated as 'running' while AK-9 in something else might not be. I could be persuaded to double and lead any of the three non-club suits at random.

 

At IMPs/total points it's close to a pass if NV. I am risking 270 to to gain 50 or 100, and I have a hard time being sure I am going to lead the right suit the necessary 85% of the time.

 

Of course there isn't a poll option for shuffling 2 or 3 cards together for the caddy to pick so I'm voting the spade.

 

Edited to add: I find it hard to believe that ANYbody's partner doesn't EVER fib about having 11HCP.

don't you think it's likely that there are two (or more) correct leads on this hand, beside the clubs? i think you are more likely to make the right lead than you think.

[gwnn]

so what's the "definitely correct" choice?? i need a lol

[effervesce]

The correct choice is the seventh card from the left. Wascally Wabbit.

[Free]

Lead one of your Qxx. Give the 3 suits (♠, ♥ and ♦) a number from 0 to 2. Look at your watch and calculate "seconds mod 3" and lead that suit.

[bid_em_up]

Under the given constraints, partner's possible distributions are:

 

Short ♣, 1 case, 4-4-4-1

Short ♦, 1 case, 4-4-1-4

Short ♥, 3 cases, 4-1-4-4, 4-0-4-5, 4-0-5-4

Short ♠, 3 cases, 1-4-4-4, 0-4-4-5, 0-4-5-4

 

Given that partner will be short in a major suit 6/8 times and in a minor suit only 2/8 times, and our side will always have 4-5 cards when short in a minor suit, but only 3-4 cards when short in a major suit, I think a minor suit lead has a greater chance of being successful.

 

I'll pick a club, only because we rate to hold more clubs (either 8 or 9) than any other suit, as long as clubs is not partners shortness.

 

However, I'm sure this is wrong and I am leading into AKQ10xxxx. :)

 

EDIT: I also think that RHO may well have only an 8 card suit headed by the AKJ10, rather than the 9 or 10 card suit that was suggested by others, if that makes a difference.

[straube]

Really?

 

I'm not sure why - since AKQ10xxxxx is far MORE likely to run than AKJxxxxxxx - the odds being nearly 22% for a 3-0 break missing 3 cards - as opposed to only about 8.5% for a 4-0 break missing 4.

 

So an expert would be MORE likely to assume that the 9 card club suit would run (making a club lead LESS attractive against an expert) than the 10 card suit (making one of those a MORE attractive lead), since the expert would assume from the odds that there was less chance of one of the 10-card suits running than the 9 card suit running.

 

(Just go to this site that gives the odds and compare "Qxx" to "Jxxx".)

 

http://www.automaton.gr/tt/en/OddsTbl.htm

 

So the odds would seem to favor the expert having the 9-card club suit rather than one of the 3 10-card suits - making the club lead LESS attractive than any of the others.

 

Right?

But if he has those clubs then he must have one loser in the other suits. Ax unless partner opened with less than 11 HCP.

That is true.

 

So we have arguments that tend to negate each other.

 

If we trust partner not to violate system requirements, then a club lead looks best, since RHO is LESS likely to hold 9 clubs and 4 side suit winners than the 10 card suit and three Aces.

 

Even though the odds are much higher that the 9 card suit to the AKQ will run than the 10 card suit to the AK will run.......

 

Which is why the hand is such a......nightmare. :)

I think Hrothgar and cloa513 solved this already. Why not trust partner's bidding and then the 7N bidder has (AKJTxxxxxx A A A) with a long suit not clubs. It's immaterial whether a AKQTxxxxx is more likely to run or not than AKJTxxxxxx. The only question is whether it's probable that the AKJTxxxxxx runs. With a ten-card suit, declarer knows that RHO must have shortness in his suit (stiff or void) so he is looking at....

 

 

me.....dummy... opener

Q23

Q2..........3

Q3..........2

23..........Q

Q2....................3

Q3....................2

23....................Q

Q...........23

2...........Q3

3...........Q2

.............Q23

.............Q2.......3

.............Q3.......2

.............23.......Q

 

as possibilities.

 

In only one case in fourteen does he lose and I might be kind enough to lead away from Qxx as an extra chance.

 

So dbl and lead a club.