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[hv=d=s&v=e&s=skt876hkq97d3cqt3]133|100|Scoring: IMP

Pass-(Pass)-Pass-(1)

 1 -  (X) - Pass- (4)

All Pass[/hv]

 

You pass in first seat. What do you lead against 4? If you disagree with the 1 feel free to comment on that too =)

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Low club. Low heart doesn't seem to accomplish anything except give them a tempo. A diamond is even worse in this regard, and it's not like if partner has the DA we can't get our ruff later. In fact I would say that a diamond is probably only worse than the KQ of hearts as an opening lead.

 

Anyway I would lead a club to try to set up our tricks / go for the tap.

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Pretty gross spot.

 

A heart is obviously out.

 

A diamond lead might hope to be "passive" but youre leading into declarer's suit while not starting a tap or anything, so I think even though you don't blow a trick outright you often help declarer finesse/set up his suit while not needing entries to dummy etc.

 

A spade is your long suit which is cool for taps and stuff, but partner didn't raise or XX so it seems quite likely you're just going to blow a trick leading from a king into the strong hand.

 

Clubs seems like our best bet. Obv it's not passive, but it might establish some tricks, and more importantly if RHO is unbalanced he almost definitely has short clubs, and he is often unbalanced. This means we start tappign declarer, and that our lead is actually safe.

 

Which club to lead? The ten or queen might have some appeal for spots like declarer having K9, dummy having A8xx etc, or so we can retain the lead to lead another one through when declarer is stiff etc. The queen can pin the stiff jack, but it could also cost if declarer has stiff H and dummy has HJ. It might also freeze us if declarer has stiff and AJ9 in dummy :( The ten might be confusing to partner and lead to very bad things happening.

 

I think I'd go low but rate the queen as pretty legit.

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I think I'd go low but rate the queen as pretty legit.

 

Nothing but low would have even occured to me lol. Surprised?

I mean, I really think the 10 is the right technical lead, but you have to weigh it against the times you confuse partner and it's not worth it imo (plus it loses to J9x opp Kxx so it's not all awesomeness).

 

So yeah I'm surprised you didn't even consider it, you've changed . I feel better about low and worse about queen after thinking some more now, yay for low!

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Everything looks like it is going to cost, with no real safe lead. There is a very good possibility that you can garnish 3 tricks from , so on that basis I would look for the setting trick.

 

possible, and looks the safest of all the leads.

really not happy with this one, plus the 3 looks like an obvious singleton.

again possible, but really does not advance the chances of 3 tricks from the suit.

could easily give away a trick, may gain a trick.

 

If we have a trick, what are the chances of it evaporating by leading a ?

If we have a trick, what are the chances of it evaporating by leading a ?

 

If the is wrong, the trick may disappear. A looks the more dangerous, but there is some chance that there is time to establish the trick at a later point. On that basis I would lead a .

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It is a minor for sure:

 

I would hate to lead a club, but in this suit is partner needs just the jack to make it work. In spade he needs much more.

 

A diamond is actractive too: I doubt that I can get partner in to give me a ruff. But maybe they can find the suit anyway and maybe they even misplay the hearts while trying to reduce possible ruffes after the lead?

 

It is close, but I try a club today.

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Am I the only one who prefers to double 1?

why X? are you worried about missing a game here :rolleyes: get your suit in fast and start blocking, clogging their bidding ASAP

But what if our suit is hearts?

Don't worry about it = turns out it was their suit.

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get your suit in fast and start blocking, clogging their bidding ASAP

What do you think you'll be clogging? At that stage they seem to have found their fit already (diamonds), so you're better off showing all the suits you can play in, so that for instance our side can bid 3 over 3.

 

The fact they happen to have 8 hearts is just a mere, very slight detail :)

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