Another slam swing

[plaur]

[hv=d=n&v=n&n=sak743ha2dkj4ckt6&s=s5hq8da9865caj543]133|200|Scoring: IMP

1♠ - 2♦

3NT...6♦

... = many bids

lead ♥J[/hv]

The 3rd slam swing I lost in one 32 board match last night ;)

Whats the best plan here ?

 

I actually did ♥A, ♠A, ♠K but ♠K got ruffed by LHO and then I failed to find both minor Q's. Other table made 11 in 3NT

[vuroth]

No idea how to work this one out.

 

I probably take the line you do at the table. Ace at trick 1 gives you options on where to lose - if you duck and lose you're very constrained.

 

I think at the table I play A♥, AK♠, then try my luck with ruffing a spade. This has a decent chance of working, and if it doesn't I'm still not quite dead.

 

No idea what's best.

[jjbrr]

Is 3NT defined as some 16-18 5332 hand? If so, why is south bidding again?

[jdonn]

Is 3NT defined as some 16-18 5332 hand? If so, why is south bidding again?

Guess we'll wait to be told but maybe it's 18-19 which would make bidding again understandable.

[pooltuna]

Is 3NT defined as some 16-18 5332 hand? If so, why is south bidding again?

I suspect they open 1NT with 5 card majors and so the 3NT rebid shows 18 or 19 and a 5 card major

[karlson]

Despite all the noise about the bidding, the final contract is not ridiculous.

 

I don't understand the plan of ruffing spades, it seems like that will never be enough tricks. I think we have to plan on having the clubs come in if we lose a diamond trick. At least we might have a decent guess by then about what to do in the suit. So the question is whether to cash ♦KA before playing ♠AK, or whether to play ♠AK first and then take the percentage play in diamonds. I'm very bad at calclulating exact odds, but my rough estimate makes the diamond finesse worth about 6% over the drop, and the chance of spades 1-6 or 2-5 on our left is about 10%. So I would cash the K and A of diamonds before playing two spades.

 

Edit, wait sorry, this is nonsense, they don't automatically get a trump promo on 2-5. It only happens if the diamond finesse loses, so I think it comes to about 5%. So very close, I guess I should do some more exact calculations.

[plaur]

Is 3NT defined as some 16-18 5332 hand? If so, why is south bidding again?

Guess we'll wait to be told but maybe it's 18-19 which would make bidding again understandable.

2♦ was acol and 3NT 18-19. I thought it was a good slam. Just needs 9 minor suit tricks, so finding either Q is good

[jdonn]

Is 3NT defined as some 16-18 5332 hand? If so, why is south bidding again?

Guess we'll wait to be told but maybe it's 18-19 which would make bidding again understandable.

2♦ was acol and 3NT 18-19. I thought it was a good slam. Just needs 9 minor suit tricks, so finding either Q is good

Only if both minors break 3-2, and not even then if spades don't break as you found out the hard way. It's not an awful slam but it's quite marginal. It really needs the diamond T and/or club 9.

[Fluffy]

cashing ♦AK won't make you happy when someone has ♦Q10xx

 

 

I'd cash ♥A♠AK.

 

After it fails we can still make.

 

Now there is some calculations left, I'd like to play for diamonds 4-1 since there are 5 vacant spaces on my left, but this dooms the contract whenever clubs are 4-1 or 1-4 without stiff Q, so playing for the diamonds to drop has a big point. Sadly there is no way to test the clubs without pulling trumps so we have to guess it now.

 

I am on guessing mode now, I finese diamonds, if they are 4-1 I have now 6 spades vs 4 diamonds, lefty has still more chances of ♣Q so finese him: ♣A+♣ to the ♣10.

[plaur]

I am on guessing mode now, I finese diamonds, if they are 4-1 I have now 6 spades vs 4 diamonds, lefty has still more chances of ♣Q so finese him: ♣A+♣ to the ♣10.

 

Congrats! You made it.[hv=n=sak743ha2dkj4ckt6&w=s9hj97643dqt73cq9&e=sqjt862hkt5d2c872&s=s5hq8da9865caj543]399|300|[/hv]

[mike777]

looks like an easy 3nt as posted...but ok.