Lead Problem vs Slam

[jdeegan]

[hv=d=e&v=b&s=sk10754h10d752c9843]133|100|Scoring: IMP

2♣-P-2♦-P

2NT-P-3♦-P

4♥-P-5♦-P

6♥-P-P-P[/hv]

 

:unsure: Playing IMP pairs against world class opponents. Match is close. Teammates are good pair.

[rogerclee]

I'd try a spade, seems better than a club.

[PhantomSac]

I'd lead a cleeeeeee

[bftboy]

I lead ♣ 9. P didn't x for a ♦, and a trump is silly. Odds are against P holding ♠ Q, so I'll hope to score the ♠ K later, perhaps along with a trick somewhere else. :unsure:

[gwnn]

underlead those honours!

[effervesce]

Against small slams in a suit, usually an aggressive lead in an unbid suit is best. See Benito Garozzo "games may be quietly defended, but slams must be ATTACKED." (exceptions for 6NT and 7x where a passive lead would often be best).

[lmilne]

I'd lead spade I think, maybe the top one even has some merit ;)

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

 

trump is out, and so is a diamond, that leaves spades or clubs.

 

I would go with a spade, we need to develop our tricks fast otherwise

they are gone on the diamonds.

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

[pooltuna]

I'd lead a cleeeeeee

did anyone else "roger that" B)

[jdeegan]

B) ♦ or ♣

 

Leading the ♥ is out since it could roll up the suit.

 

A ♠ is nearly as bad, if not worse. RHO has the ♠ ace and 22+ HCP - so, leading around into the possible wheel is BAD, esp. when I have FIVE ♠. Neither opponent has advertised a long suit other than ♥, so a passive defense should be OK. Leading a ♠, I would be playing pard for the ♠ queen plus an entry - if the entry is an ace, then they have only 31 HCP. If it is an offside king (probably the ♦ king) then what's the hurry? RHO has a balanced hand. Wait on the ♠ trick and hope for the best.

 

♥ and ♠ leads are clear errors, but I don't see too much to choose between the other two suits. On the actual hand, the ♠ was the ONLY lead to allow the contract to make.

[Siegmund]

I voted small club but don't really care which size club it is. I hate leading from K-T into the strong balanced hand; even the heart rates to be better than that if you ask me (after the superaccept I don't expect there to be a heart loser to blow.)

 

Of course I am used to the fact that the most aggressive lead in sight always wins in a lead-vs-slam poll even when it doesnt work at the table B)

 

Edited to add: if 5♦ is a second suit rather than a cuebid, I'll change my vote to the spade; there may be a slew of pitches on a 2nd running suit.

[mcphee]

I can only assume the guy has H and D so I would be very concerned a possible S trick might fly. So I will go along with the clear error and lead a S. :D

[gwnn]

:D ♦ or ♣

 

Leading the ♥ is out since it could roll up the suit.

 

A ♠ is nearly as bad, if not worse. RHO has the ♠ ace and 22+ HCP - so, leading around into the possible wheel is BAD, esp. when I have FIVE ♠. Neither opponent has advertised a long suit other than ♥, so a passive defense should be OK. Leading a ♠, I would be playing pard for the ♠ queen plus an entry - if the entry is an ace, then they have only 31 HCP. If it is an offside king (probably the ♦ king) then what's the hurry? RHO has a balanced hand. Wait on the ♠ trick and hope for the best.

 

♥ and ♠ leads are clear errors, but I don't see too much to choose between the other two suits. On the actual hand, the ♠ was the ONLY lead to allow the contract to make.

im sorry maybe i didnt understand were you looking for advice or looking forward to lecturing the whole forums? either way is fine but it's usually better if you pre-alert.

[655321]

Spade.

 

Of course I am used to the fact that the most aggressive lead in sight always wins in a lead-vs-slam poll even when it doesnt work at the table :D

 

Hmm. Sure, there are always exceptions, but as a general rule, good players make the most aggressive lead against slams. And as a general rule, bad players never make aggressive leads against slams.

 

You could decide that these are two equally valid schools of thought, or (as a shortcut, without even needing to understand the issues) you could decide that experts are more likely to be right than bad players...

[Pict]

I voted club.

 

I would often want to lead a spade on established principles with this holding, but the 2NT swings me against it. Interesting to see that there is still a very strong vote for the spade.

[jdeegan]

:) ♦ or ♣

 

Leading the ♥ is out since it could roll up the suit.

 

A ♠ is nearly as bad, if not worse.  RHO has the ♠ ace and 22+ HCP - so, leading around into the possible wheel is BAD, esp. when I have FIVE ♠.  Neither opponent has advertised a long suit other than ♥, so a passive defense should be OK. Leading a ♠, I would be playing pard for the ♠ queen plus an entry - if the entry is an ace, then they have only 31 HCP.  If it is an offside king (probably the ♦ king) then what's the hurry?  RHO has a balanced hand.  Wait on the ♠ trick and hope for the best.

 

♥ and ♠ leads are clear errors, but I don't see too much to choose between the other two suits.  On the actual hand, the ♠ was the ONLY lead to allow the contract to make.

im sorry maybe i didnt understand were you looking for advice or looking forward to lecturing the whole forums? either way is fine but it's usually better if you pre-alert.

 

:D Sry. Next time I will pre-alert. Just trying to gauge the quality of commentators. It seems they are well-read, but not very well-educated.

 

♠ leaders might consider buying Mike Lawrence's CD's on bidding and play for a few hundred bucks. One of them teaches about opening leads. You learn a checklist to consider which includes evaluating the auction, counting the outstanding HCP's, etc. Why spent the time to pursue a hobby unless you know what you are doing?

[rogerclee]

:) Sry. Next time I will pre-alert. Just trying to gauge the quality of commentators. It seems they are well-read, but not very bright.

you are a joke

[jdeegan]

:) Sry. Next time I will pre-alert.  Just trying to gauge the quality of commentators. 

you are a joke

:D Right. My original post was a bit harsh. True enough, but not very constructive.

[georgeac]

Why spent the time to pursue a hobby unless you know what you are doing?

isnt that why people pick up a hobby in the first place. to have fun and get better. why pick up playing guitar unless you know what you are doing?

[lmilne]

:D ♦ or ♣

 

Leading the ♥ is out since it could roll up the suit.

 

A ♠ is nearly as bad, if not worse.  RHO has the ♠ ace and 22+ HCP - so, leading around into the possible wheel is BAD, esp. when I have FIVE ♠.  Neither opponent has advertised a long suit other than ♥, so a passive defense should be OK. Leading a ♠, I would be playing pard for the ♠ queen plus an entry - if the entry is an ace, then they have only 31 HCP.  If it is an offside king (probably the ♦ king) then what's the hurry?  RHO has a balanced hand.  Wait on the ♠ trick and hope for the best.

 

♥ and ♠ leads are clear errors, but I don't see too much to choose between the other two suits.  On the actual hand, the ♠ was the ONLY lead to allow the contract to make.

im sorry maybe i didnt understand were you looking for advice or looking forward to lecturing the whole forums? either way is fine but it's usually better if you pre-alert.

 

:D Sry. Next time I will pre-alert. Just trying to gauge the quality of commentators. It seems they are well-read, but not very well-educated.

 

♠ leaders might consider buying Mike Lawrence's CD's on bidding and play for a few hundred bucks. One of them teaches about opening leads. You learn a checklist to consider which includes evaluating the auction, counting the outstanding HCP's, etc. Why spent the time to pursue a hobby unless you know what you are doing?

whats with all the smiley faces followed by insulting a ton of players who (you would think) have reasons for their plays?

 

btw no one cares what the result on the hand was, that is completely irrelevant. run a sim, maybe someone will listen. i couldn't care less whether best play results in a contract going down. i'm interested in playing best bridge.

[PhantomSac]

Of course I am used to the fact that the most aggressive lead in sight always wins in a lead-vs-slam poll even when it doesnt work at the table :D

Pretty sure a passive lead always wins vs 6N heh. Aggressive leads generally win in polls vs suit slams because usually they are making unless you have some nasty surprise for them if you defend passively. The best thing you have going for you is the initiative, so that you can set up a trick and hopefully get in and cash your trick before stuff goes away.

 

On this hand we have a stiff trump, and if I thought they were 4-1 for the opps I would go passive on the basis that we might beat them with passive defense since that is a nice surprise for them that will help us. Here they super accepted so I don't really think that's the case.

 

We have xxx diamonds, that looks quite bad for us. If they were in a close slam, that will probably help them make.

 

So I'm hoping to set up a trick. A club is better for that because we're shorter, but it requires more from partner, basically the KQ or the KJ over the Q maybe (the K over dummy's ace seems unlikely given that LHO didn't bid 5C). KTxx would be a clear winner over xxxxx to me. Also, hopefully LHO won't have a stiff spade since they didn't bid 4S, in which case my length will not increase the chance that even if we hit partner's queen we don't set up a trick (which is the downside of length).

 

Thus a spade seems right to me for setting up a trick, and that seems like the right plan to me (and as you said, is the default plan vs 6 of a suit unless you have some reason to think you will beat it on passive defense).

 

It seems like a much more narrow target to try to beat them on passive defense and fear a layout where a spade gives them their 12th trick (because if passive defense beats it, we might just have 2 tricks in the red suits or whatever and the spade didn't hurt us), than to try and set up a trick then get in and cash that trick. Obv it's possible they're just on a spade hook or something and a spade lead sets it, but it seems less likely than the times we gain.

 

I don't understand your comment though, were you implying that people always lead aggro vs 6 of a suit on paper even though it's anti percentage or that they wouldn't do it at the table? Maybe it's antipercentage, but it is the current conventional wisdom and it is what most experts do at the table ime, so I don't think anyone is being disingenuous.

[cloa513]

Are all the bids natural other than 2C and 2D?

[jdonn]

I strongly dispute that aggressive leads against freely bid suit slams work well in theory but not in practice. I have been using them at the table for years and they have worked quite a lot of times! Also when it gives up a trick that often proves to be a useless trick because of discards. I believe 100% in a spade here.

[Free]

I think it's clear RHO has ♠A and a ♣ control, so I don't like the ♠. If they'd just blast to 6♥ without the 5♦ bid, I'd definitely lead ♠.

 

Here I'd lead small ♣

[bftboy]

I'm a strong believer in aggressive leads against slams. But on this auction a ♠ lead simply seems more likely to cost us a trick than to build one. The actual result of any lead selected is interesting, but immaterial to the problem. :blink: