Overthinking?

[kayin801]

[hv=d=s&v=n&n=sxxxhq98daqxxxcxx&w=sqxxxha1054dxxcqjxx&e=sj10xhdj10xxxc10xxxx&s=sakxhkj76xxdkcakx]399|300|Scoring: MP

Opps silent until end:

 

1♣-2♣

2♥-3♥

4NT-5♣

5♦-5NT

6♥-(X by W)-AP

 

Low spade lead[/hv]

 

1♣ was strong, 2♣ was artificial showing a unbalanced positive with no 5 card major, and the remainder of the auction was natural/1430. I went down 1 when I unblocked the diamond K, lead a high heart (ducked), hooked the heart 8, and tried to pitch both my losers on my top diamonds.

 

I thought that line was right without any additional info (makes if hearts aren't 4-0 and diamonds 5-2 and no ruff). W Xed though, and I assumed he was sane. Clearly I can make by leading to the heart 8 instead of first leading a high one (cashing a high heart first fails on this lie, I think), and then ruffing a club (only need to cash one diamond honor then). After the X should I have done this, or am I overthinking it?

[gnasher]

I think West was underthinking during the bidding.

[PhantomSac]

Yeah definitely play a heart to the 8. Assuming hearts are 4-0, diamonds being 5-2 is very likely, and hearts are almost always 4-0. Sure it's possible they just doubled on QJ of clubs, SQ, HA, and DJ because they had 10 points, but that takes a very special type of player, and even then you will often survive if LHO has ATx of hearts.

[Pict]

I think you were very unlucky.

 

But of course you missed the opportunity for glory with the first round trump finesse.

 

I think you should have done it.

[ArtK78]

West made a very bad double. It is a shame that you did not make him pay for it.

 

Clearly, you would never make if he did not double.

[gnasher]

Sure it's possible they just doubled on QJ of clubs, SQ, HA, and DJ because they had 10 points, but that takes a very special type of player, and even then you will often survive if LHO has ATx of hearts.

They might also have doubled on a singleton heart and reason to think that the side-suits were breaking badly. It would be unfortunate to be talked into going down in something that's cold.

 

If this were IMPs, it would also be much less swingy to play the normal line: you would stand to lose 3 or gain 6, instead of losing 17 or gaining 18.

[PhantomSac]

I don't really care about how swingy it is because imo they are going to almost always have ATxx of hearts. Doubling with a stiff heart does not make sense, all south has done is bid hearts and then bid keycard when raised, he could have 7 or 8 hearts.

 

Also if he doesn't have the HA, he doesn't even know his side has a keycard. They had a queen ask auction where one guy denied any kings, so they could just be off a critical king. Even if they're off a keycard it might be the onside king.

 

Anyways, this analysis is all pretty dumb since whatever west has doubled on they've done something stupid. I guess I will just say that in my experience when they do something stupid it's way more often that they thought ATxx of trumps plus some queens would definitely take 2 tricks, than it is that they doubled with a stiff trump and nothing else on a basically unlimited auction, and it's not really close to me.

 

I think in general if you just take these doubles at face value and pick off their trumps and don't worry about going down in a cold contract you will do really well in the long run.

[gnasher]

But it's not just a question of which trump holding he's more likely to have for his double. The relevant probabilities are:

(1) East has ♥10

(2) West has ♥A10xx and a doubleton diamond

 

Or, putting it another way:

(1) West is a nutter

(2) West is a moron, but a lucky moron

 

I think that the best answer is to find an event where we won't encounter such players.

[PhantomSac]

But it's not just a question of which trump holding he's more likely to have for his double. The relevant probabilities are:

(1) East has ♥10

(2) West has ♥A10xx and a doubleton diamond

 

Or, putting it another way:

(1) West is a nutter

(2) West is a moron, but a lucky moron

 

I think that the best answer is to find an event where we won't encounter such players.

Yeah I understand, I'm just saying if it is 95 % that they have doubled with ATxx and 5 % they've doubled with "other" then the other stuff doesn't really matter (assuming doubleton diamond happens at least reasonably often). I've really never seen one double with a yarb and a stiff trump in this type of auction, and you see it happen very often that they double with some pseudo trump trick.

 

In fact I was just reading some old junior bridge hand where someone doubled with JTxx and an ace lol. Declarer double finessed his honors obv, don't think he worried about the opp making a completely random double and owning him.

 

Going with the title of this thread, to me it is completely overthinking to assume they double you without thinking in their minds that they are gonna take 2 tricks, so our only goal is to figure out in their heads what hands are they so sure they're taking 2 tricks with that they'd double, and ATxx of hearts and some stuff is just pretty obvious to me, maybe you've had different experiences in these situations though.

 

Sure sometimes when they have ATxx you survive when you play the king first, but you're basically freerolling yourself imo since they almost always have that.

[pooltuna]

I think West was underthinking during the bidding.

This may be an overstatement of his efforts :(

[lmilne]

Or, putting it another way:

(1) West is a nutter

(2) West is a moron, but a lucky moron

 

I think that the best answer is to find an event where we won't encounter such players.

Other things equal, I'd prefer to be playing in an event where kind opponents give me the best chance to make this slam, and doubled to boot...

[PhantomSac]

Or, putting it another way:

(1) West is a nutter

(2) West is a moron, but a lucky moron

 

I think that the best answer is to find an event where we won't encounter such players.

Other things equal, I'd prefer to be playing in an event where kind opponents give me the best chance to make this slam, and doubled to boot...

Really? So your preferred field would be a novice game?

[gnasher]

Going with the title of this thread, to me it is completely overthinking to assume they double you without thinking in their minds that they are gonna take 2 tricks, so our only goal is to figure out in their heads what hands are they so sure they're taking 2 tricks with that they'd double, and ATxx of hearts and some stuff is just pretty obvious to me, maybe you've had different experiences in these situations though.

I can't say that I encounter either type of double very often. but maybe my view is coloured by this fairly recent experience:

 

We bid 1♦-1♠;2♣-3♣;3♦-4♣;5♣, and the hand on lead doubled with something like Qxxx xxxx Qxxx 9. 5♣ was booked for one down because the other hand had two aces and ♣K108 (which was a trick), but I went an extra one off in an unconvincing attempt to cater for trumps 4-0. I know that there was an idiot at the table, but I'm not sure who it was.