to finesse or not to finesse

[scoob]

Auction:

 

East 1♠ - (P) - 2♦ - (5♣)

5♥ - (6♣) - 6♥ - All Pass

 

[hv=d=e&v=b&w=sqjht752daj9853ck&e=sak752hkq983dq74c]266|100|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

 

do you play the ♦ finesse, or no?

 

why/why not?

[luke warm]

as opposed to what? stiff ♦K?

[Cascade]

This is from my lesson today.

 

I have given my opinion already but I may as well give it here.

 

The normal play in diamonds is to finesse.

 

Leading low and finessing will succeed when South has Kx (20.3%), when the singleton K pops in front of dummy (6.2%) and when the singleton 10 falls behind dummy (6.2%). This is a total success rate of 32.8%*.

 

On the other hand Leading low and playing the Ace only works when there is a singleton King in either hand (12.4%).

 

So you can see that the finesse is nearly three times as good as playing for the drop.

 

I can't think of any reason to go against the normal play on this hand. Maybe someone else can.

 

* Note minor rounding errors account for the extra 0.1%

[1eyedjack]

Another genuine play is to run the Q. Picks up KTxx onside but loses to stiff King onside (compared with low to J).

 

Normally the stiff K is more likely. After this bidding I am not so sure.

[Free]

Run the Q... % play

[Fluffy]

playing the ♦Q also grants you the option to finese later teh ♦10, wich doesn´t really give advantages unless you can count exact distribution of someone.

 

The lack of a lightner double makes ♦K10xx less likelly than stiff ♦K.

[Flame]

Next time give more information, like the vul and the lead.

To the question, when having Aj98xx against Qxx

you 3 options , 1 lead small to the J to find Kx or K on side.

2. run the Q and if it covered my the K take the A and play the J , works when K on side and 10 is doublton or singelton.

3. double finnese for both pictures.

Here however is a different story, you dont need the second picture you only need one finnese, so you finnese to the Q and drop all your diamonds on the spades. (only if spades doesnt work you need the diamonds.

[luis]

I'm sorry but this is a very incomplete question to be answered.

What was the vulnerability and what did they lead? Assuming they lead a club, ruffed who has the hA and what does he play? How are trumps distributed?

Maybe you can get a count of the spades and the hearts and assume something about clubs from the lead so there will be more information later to decide what to do.

[Fluffy]

Here however is a different story, you dont need the second picture you only need one finnese, so you finnese to the Q and drop all your diamonds on the spades. (only if spades doesnt work you need the diamonds.

You have more ♠ than dummy, so your ♦ will hardly be discarded on your own suit.

 

Ruffing a ♦ in dummy won´t work, he has 6♦, and the best you can achieve is 3 discards (unless yo want to discard on ♥ :) ), that means you must get 3♦ tricks before.

[EarlPurple]

This is a very poor slam, because we need to pick up both diamonds and hearts.

 

I think the most likely club split on the bidding is 8-4. North will have to have either 2 hearts or singleton jack or ace or Axx. (Jxx would work double-dummy but my first lead would have to be low from hand). If North turns up with 2 hearts and 2 spades then he probably had a singleton diamond (and a diamond lead would have beaten this). It's 3 times more likely to be a small one than the king.

[Cascade]

I'm sorry but this is a very incomplete question to be answered.

What was the vulnerability and what did they lead? Assuming they lead a club, ruffed who has the hA and what does he play? How are trumps distributed?

Maybe you can get a count of the spades and the hearts and assume something about clubs from the lead so there will be more information later to decide what to do.

The hand came from a teaching session. It was played in a mini-tournament prior to the teaching session. I am not sure if the bidding was like that at any of the tables in the tourney.

 

EW were in fact vulnerable (not both as stated in the original post).

 

A club (the four) would be the likely lead to the King and Ace.

 

Trumps are 2-2 with the Ace held by South and the Jack held by North the 5♣ bidder. After winning the the ♥A South might safely return a spade or heart.

 

If you play spades you will find that South has four and North two.

 

Therefore North is either 2218 or 2227 and South 4234 or 4225. Either would seem possible at the vulnerability to me. I guess 2209 and 4243 is possible but less likely that South would dive with this.

[luke warm]

the original question was, "do you play the diamond finesse.." my answer was, "as opposed to what?" the only other choice is to play the ace for a stiff king, and that's clearly anti-percentage

[Flame]

Here however is a different story, you dont need the second picture you only need one finnese, so you finnese to the Q and drop all your diamonds on the spades. (only if spades doesnt work you need the diamonds.

You have more ♠ than dummy, so your ♦ will hardly be discarded on your own suit.

 

Ruffing a ♦ in dummy won´t work, he has 6♦, and the best you can achieve is 3 discards (unless yo want to discard on ♥ :D ), that means you must get 3♦ tricks before.

opps , i think i saw 4 discards on the spades or something like that, well it was late at night and i was ...................... :(

[jtfanclub]

I'm an intermediate, but I'm going to open my yap anyways.

 

Did South win the HA? And if so, did he lead a diamond? If he has four diamonds, surely he'll lead one, hoping his partner can ruff. If he didn't, I think the 4-0 diamond split can be excluded.

[luis]

I'm sorry but this is a very incomplete question to be answered.

What was the vulnerability and what did they lead? Assuming they lead a club, ruffed who has the hA and what does he play? How are trumps distributed?

Maybe you can get a count of the spades and the hearts and assume something about clubs from the lead so there will be more information later to decide what to do.

The hand came from a teaching session. It was played in a mini-tournament prior to the teaching session. I am not sure if the bidding was like that at any of the tables in the tourney.

 

EW were in fact vulnerable (not both as stated in the original post).

 

A club (the four) would be the likely lead to the King and Ace.

 

Trumps are 2-2 with the Ace held by South and the Jack held by North the 5♣ bidder. After winning the the ♥A South might safely return a spade or heart.

 

If you play spades you will find that South has four and North two.

 

Therefore North is either 2218 or 2227 and South 4234 or 4225. Either would seem possible at the vulnerability to me. I guess 2209 and 4243 is possible but less likely that South would dive with this.

There're some reasons to play North to be 2-2-1-8 for his 5♣ jump with the diamond king. One is that with the hA and the dK south might not have bid 6♣ since it wasn't so clear to sacrifice.

Another reason is that North didn't double 6!h maybe because he is afraid of his dK being dropped.

I might play the dA directly after drawing trumps.

[EarlPurple]

I suppose you could say that if South has 3 diamonds and Ax in hearts he should know to try to give partner a 2nd round ruff and would therefore have led a diamond away from his king at trick 1.

 

My decision is not what to do on the first round of diamonds - I am leading the queen. When South covers and I win the ace, my decision is what to do next round. I will stick by my belief that clubs are 8-4.

[Trpltrbl]

Double ♦ finesse.

 

Mike :D