jdonn Posted February 21, 2010 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2010 Good point everyone I should have started ruffing diamonds, after all I would have made 11 tricks then. Why didn't I think of that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gnasher Posted February 21, 2010 Report Share Posted February 21, 2010 And if spades are 4-1 and LHO is any shape other than 4=2=3=4, you will have gone down even though you got the hearts right. Making 3♠x is worth 11 IMPs against 140 in the other room. Making two overtricks is worth 14. Going down is worth -6. Hence you're risking 17 to gain 3. LHO is limited to 15 HCPs but he doubled 3♠ facing a one-level response. Regardless of what the double means, do you really think it's less than a 15% chance that spades are 4-1? On reflection, the question in my final paragraph understates the disadvantages of ruffing two diamonds in hand. With spades 3-2, most of the time this line will just break even. Even without any bidding, the chance of finding trumps 3-2 and diamonds 3-3 is 36% x 68% ~= 24%. So, 24% of the time you gain 3; 28% of the time you lose 17. Not much of a bargain, that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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