Perhaps much ado about nothing?

[jdonn]

[hv=d=w&v=b&n=sahktda87432c9753&s=skqjt752h8752d6cj]133|200|Scoring: IMP[/hv]

1♦ P 1♥ 3♠

DBL P P P

 

Opponents play precision, 1♦ is 1+ and limited to 15, no explanation on the double.

Ace of clubs lead then king of clubs. RHO plays 2 then 4, udca. You ruff and lead a heart, 3 from LHO, and you play the...?

 

Edit: More info, double was slow and they open 10-12 1NT I believe.

[Free]

If we play ♥K we hope LHO has the Ace. If we play the ♥T, we hope LHO has Qx or Jx (or QJx). I'm not sure about percentages here, but my intuition tells me to play the T.

[Old York]

I am a simple soul and I feel lucky. West has opened the bidding, so figures to have ♥Ace rather than playing low from ♥QJx so I play the King

 

If we allow East to win ♥Jack or ♥Queen he switches to a trump so the heart ruff is an illusion. The odds seem better than 2-1 that West has ♥Ace

 

Edit: playing ♥10 will only gain if West has ♥QJx(x) (about 14%)

Playing the ♥King gains whenever West has ♥Ace (over 50% [ignoring AQJ])

 

Tony

[Fluffy]

with ♥QJ it isnt obvious to play low heart, opponents make mistakes, and here it is better to think he couldn't make a mistake than to think he played well, I'd play the King

[655321]

The holdings where it makes a difference:

• The King wins against A3, AQ3, AJ3, A93, A63, A43.
  
• The Ten wins against Q3, J3, QJ3, Q93, J93.
  

Then we probably need to adjust the A63 and A43 for restricted choice. I think this is pretty close mathematically, and anyway I don't know how to allow for their sometimes giving reverse count, or sometimes splitting from QJx, or sometimes rising with the Ace, so it seems like a guess to me.

[Old York]

...The Ten wins against Q3, J3, QJ3, Q93, J93...

How is that winning when we end up with 5 losers?

 

The only layouts that matter are:-

 

1/ ♥Ax(x) with West (Including AQ3 and AJ3)

2/ ♥QJ3 with West (and West correctly refuses to play an honour - else the ♥8 is promoted)

 

all other layouts lead to defeat, or am I missing something?

 

Edit.... yep

3/ ♥Q3 or ♥J3 or ♥Q93 or ♥J93 with West (again, the ♥8 will be promoted)

Hard to spot the 8 of Hearts getting promoted :)

 

Tony

[kenrexford]

I don't think I would have tried that line from start. Personally, it seems better to play a diamond to the Ace, ruff a diamond, spade to the Ace, ruff a diamond, pull trumps, and heart out. If diamonds split 3-3, with the heart ace to my left, I have a place to dump several hearts and end up making 11 tricks (or 12 if LHO strangely ducks). That seems wildly better.

[bid_em_up]

Agree with Ken.

[gnasher]

I don't think I would have tried that line from start. Personally, it seems better to play a diamond to the Ace, ruff a diamond, spade to the Ace, ruff a diamond, pull trumps, and heart out. If diamonds split 3-3, with the heart ace to my left, I have a place to dump several hearts and end up making 11 tricks (or 12 if LHO strangely ducks).

And if spades are 4-1 and LHO is any shape other than 4=2=3=4, you will have gone down even though you got the hearts right.

 

Making 3♠x is worth 11 IMPs against 140 in the other room. Making two overtricks is worth 14. Going down is worth -6. Hence you're risking 17 to gain 3.

 

LHO is limited to 15 HCPs but he doubled 3♠ facing a one-level response. Regardless of what the double means, do you really think it's less than a 15% chance that spades are 4-1?

 

That seems wildly better.

That seems a wildly inaccurate assessment.

[jdonn]

I know it's a guess that's why I asked. :) Although I like that the one guy who seems to have voted for the 10 didn't even see all the cases it works.

 

I also knew Ken would post some ridiculous line of play but I didn't know he would find one so obviously wrong... :) He must have thought he was in 4♠.

[kfay]

Why do I have to play a ♥ right away? I'd rather play a ♦ and ruff a ♦.

 

Anyway I'd just play the K now.

[jdonn]

Why do I have to play a ♥ right away? I'd rather play a ♦ and ruff a ♦.

Why? If you try to set up diamonds you are at Ken's line where you are trying to lose control. If you aren't then I don't know how 2 rounds of diamonds will help you.

[kenrexford]

I did think I was in 4♠. Oops.

 

In now looking at the real problem, I would ask a few questions, I think:

 

1. Is 3♠ penalty-oriented or takeout-oriented (high ODR)?

 

2. Structurally, what about the rest of their system explains the 1+ diamond holding? In other words, what possible hand types could Opener have?

 

The answers to these questions seem important.

[jdonn]

1. Is 3♠ penalty-oriented or takeout-oriented (high ODR)?

 

2. Structurally, what about the rest of their system explains the 1+ diamond holding? In other words, what possible hand types could Opener have?

1. Sorry no answers. If you want to say how your line would differ based on different potential answers you are more than welcome to.

 

2. I don't know but I'll be nice and tell you LHO didn't have a singleton diamond.

[kenrexford]

I think that the person with long spades likely has the heart Ace, and I play accordingly.

[jdonn]

I think that the person with long spades likely has the heart Ace, and I play accordingly.

Supposing they explain the double as "balanced maximum"?

[pooltuna]

<!-- NORTHSOUTH begin --><table border=1> <tr> <td> <table> <tr> <td>Dealer:</td> <td> West </td> </tr> <tr> <td>Vul:</td> <td> Both </td> </tr> <tr> <td>Scoring:</td> <td> IMP </td> </tr> </table> </td> <td> <table border='1'> <tr> <th> <table> <tr> <th class='spades'>♠</th> <td> A </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='hearts'>♥</th> <td> KT </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='diamonds'>♦</th> <td> A87432 </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='clubs'>♣</th> <td> 9753 </td> </tr> </table> </th> </tr> <tr> <th> <table> <tr> <th class='spades'>♠</th> <td> KQJT752 </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='hearts'>♥</th> <td> 8752 </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='diamonds'>♦</th> <td> 6 </td> </tr> <tr> <th class='clubs'>♣</th> <td> J </td> </tr> </table> </th> </tr> </table> </td> <td>  </td> </tr> </table><!-- NORTHSOUTH end -->

1♦ P 1♥ 3♠

DBL P P P

 

Opponents play precision, 1♦ is 1+ and limited to 15, no explanation on the double.

Ace of clubs lead then king of clubs. RHO plays 2 then 4, udca. You ruff and lead a heart, 3 from LHO, and you play the...?

 

Edit: More info, double was slow and they open 10-12 1NT I believe.

assumptions for LHO's hand

1. Has less than 15 HCP but near maximum to justify X (certainly more than 12 or would open 1NT)

2. Has at most 4♣ since no 2♣ opening and has the AK

3. Has at most 3♥ based on the bidding (partner's ♥ response)

4. Has at most 4♠ based on the bidding (no 1♠ opening)

5. As a consequence of 2), 3), and 4) has at least 2♦

6. signals indicate RHO has ♣Q

6. Probably needs 2 of A♥ KQ♦ to justify X

Since more probable to have A♥ + H♦ than KQ♦ I go up with the K

[Pict]

I've been reluctant to take part in the guess.

 

However, in real life I would play the ten, and if asked to justify it, then I would say that East is not passing us into vulnerable game without a clear trick (not QQQ). East has the heart Ace.

[Jlall]

I gave jdonn my answer while I was drunk but it seemed to me that:

 

LHO does not have the AKQ of clubs (he might have played the queen at some point, and RHO might not have encouraged with Txxx, and definitely wouldn't encourage with 8xxx).

 

Given that, if LHO has just the AK of clubs, he is a big favorite to have the HA. Eliminating QJx of hearts (would split), then if he doesn't have the ace, his max holding in hearts is the Q. Giving him:

 

??

Q9x

?????

AKx?

 

That is only 9 points. This means he must have at least KQ of diamonds...mayyybe KJ but that's a thirteen count. With KQJ of diamonds he might have led a diamond or shifted to a diamond also (unclear, but possible). If you give him J9x of hearts, he really has to have KQ and that is still a thin double that he might not make, or KQJ (where he might have led a diamond). Basically, by limiting his heart holdings to non ace holdings, we force him to have all the diamonds which is less likely. Not to mention we force him to have the 9 of hearts, else our play is irrelevant. Basically it's one big parlay.

 

Assume we give him the heart ace now.

 

??

A??

?????

AK??

 

Obv we don't know the exact shape hence all the question marks. Anyways, in this case he can have KJ of diamonds, QJ of diamonds, K of diamonds, AJx of hearts and the DK, AJx of hearts and the QJ of diamonds, etc. He is also not forced to have the 9 of hearts. This seems like a lot more holdings, and they are all sharp 14/15 counts that would be extremely likely to double (compared to the soft 13 counts above).

 

Also,

 

I hate to say this guys, but the weak opps are playing udca. There is a VERY real non zero chance that they play the 9 from J9x or Q9x! 655321 mentions restricted choice, but these people do not know that the 9 could be relevant. I mean to be really honest I think I would play the 9 a non zero percent of the time irl, so I assume that bad players would do it most of the time. Even if you don't believe this to be the case, I still think the king is the right play, but it is a practical consideration that makes the K much much much more likely to be right. In fact, it may be near 100 % to be right if they give count most of the time like most people do. It's not a normal situation, and it's hard to see why playing the 9 might cost when you're looking at KT doubleton.

 

Edit: Also I realize jdonn didn't say they were bad, I extrapolated that from them Xing and not knowing what it means, and that it maybe means "balanced max" when limited to 15 lol. And yes I use "bad" loosely in the sense that 99 % of people are bad.

[Jlall]

More thoughts on this hand:

 

I realize all of my analysis is assuming LHO does NOT have the club queen. So I should probably state better why I think this is true:

 

1) If LHO has FIVE clubs, I believe they cannot have the CQ, since RHO encouraged. 5 clubs is not that likely, but they play precision so it's certainly possible (1345).

 

2) If LHO has THREE clubs, AKQ tight is very unlikely, because RHO encouraged, and because it's simply unlikely to be dealt (1 combination), and if it was dealt they might lead the queen or play the queen the second time. I'd say AKQ tight is just unlikely.

 

3) If LHO has FOUR clubs, they never have AKQT (RHO cannot encourage with 8xxx), and probably they cannot even have AKQ8 (If RHO has Txxx and partner goes club club club it sets up the 7). Ofc it's possible RHO made an error with Txxx so it's not impossible, but it's weighted less. Even if LHO has AKQx, it is very possible they'd lead the queen or play the queen the second time.

 

So basically if LHO has AKQ, I think it's an unlikely AKQ tight, or AKQx (not 8 or T), and it still requires them to have played ace then king, and still requires RHO to have encouraged.

 

All that said, for completeness I will say that if LHO has AKQ of clubs then they are extremely likely to NOT have the heart ace, since they don't have much room for any other honors. But imo they probably don't have the queen like 95 % of the time, and if that's the case my analysis above on why they rate to have the ace seems true.

 

Oh and one other minor point, if LHO happens to have a doubleton heart, our only play to make is the king.

[jdonn]

IRL LHO played the ace on the way up anyway, I was just wondering what I should do if he played low since I hadn't decided yet. So most people here were right but perhaps only by coincidence since LHO had xxx AJx Jxx AKQx (AKQ of clubs!)

[Jlall]

IRL LHO played the ace on the way up anyway, I was just wondering what I should do if he played low since I hadn't decided yet. So most people here were right but perhaps only by coincidence since LHO had xxx AJx Jxx AKQx (AKQ of clubs!)

haha, did RHO have exactly T842?

[jdonn]

Yes I think so, definitely the 10 and I think the 8.

[kenrexford]

Humorously, then, 3♠ makes 11 tricks by attacking diamonds after all.

[whereagles]

Well, ♥K I guess. Why didn't I ruff some diamonds before??