Freakish spades

[el mister]

Got this one dealt on BBO last night which tickled my fancy:

 

[hv=d=w&v=n&s=sakq1098632ha2dacq]133|100|Scoring: IMP

P - P - 1NT(weak) ?[/hv]

 

What's your bid / thought process here?

 

One thing this hand made me realise is that I don't really have the scoring table at my fingertips. e.g. I can see if I double 1NT and it gets passed out, its going 6 off. But I didn't instinctively know how this score would relate to 6♠ or 6♠X making. Or 7♠. I know everyone here knows the scoring table back to front, but what level where you at when you could make this the sort of calculation automatically?

[gwnn]

relax, if you x 1NT it will not get passed out.

[Fluffy]

I know the scores by memory, 420 for a game, 620 if vulnerable, 140 for making 3 etc, and 980 for non vulnerable slam.

 

When it comes to doubled contracts I need to sum up, I really had no idea untill last couple of years, so I'd say it takes time.

 

Calculating downs is somethign you do with your fingers, 100, 300, 500, 800, 1100, 1400

[hanp]

down 6???

[andy_h]

Got to admit that one day I was so bored that I decided to look at the scoring table (only at doubled and redoubled making contracts) and worked out the formula for it lol Definitely the effort way instead of looking that up on the net.

 

But knowing the more common scores comes with experience I reckon. The more you play the more you start to familiarise with the very common scores.

[helene_t]

If RHO has 13 points there are 8 to LHO and p together, so p has on average a little more than 4 of the 21 points that we have. This makes the chances that he has either ♣A or ♥K rather small, maybe 30% or so. But ok there are a number of other scenarios that bring us to 6♠, most of them involving a lucky opening lead. Still I think the chance of making 6♠ must be below 50%.

 

We should aim at playing 4♠x or 5♠x. Maybe 4♠ and taking the push to 5 if we get the chance is best.

[hrothgar]

Double 1NT

 

If it gets passed out, you should be able to run 11 tricks off the top.

+1100 will score very nicely compared to an NV slam and you really can't plan strategy based on the asusmption that the ooponents will be nice enough to double you in a making slam.

 

Moreover, the odds of making a small slam, let alone a grand slam seem very slim.

[cherdanno]

RHO has a balanced hand with 12-14 hcp. We have 9 spades and 19 hcp. How high do you think are the chances that both LHO and partner will pass out 1NT doubled?

[hanp]

58%? :) :unsure:

[Fluffy]

If RHO has 13 points there are 8 to LHO and p together, so p has on average a little more than 4 of the 21 points that we have. This makes the chances that he has either ♣A or ♥K rather small, maybe 30% or so. But ok there are a number of other scenarios that bring us to 6♠, most of them involving a lucky opening lead. Still I think the chance of making 6♠ must be below 50%.

 

We should aim at playing 4♠x or 5♠x. Maybe 4♠ and taking the push to 5 if we get the chance is best.

I agree that we should aim on those contracts if possible, althou need to know our methods for that.

 

But I disagree on your numbers, 6♠ makes a lot more than you think, ♦K+♠J, ♣K+♠J and wrong lead, ♣K and a mistake on first trick, and ♥Q and a ♦/♠ lead seems to give you an easy strip squeeze.

[el mister]

Thanks for the replies. Here is the full deal[hv=d=w&v=n&n=s754hkj983d1072ck9&w=shq754d9865c108652&e=sjh106dkqj43caj743&s=sakq1098632ha2dacq]399|300|Scoring: IMP

P - P - 1NT - X

P - P - 2D - 6S

All pass[/hv]

 

So E makes an off-shape 1NT opening, W leaves the double in with 2pts 4-4-5, and I plough a 6♠ bid, which happens to be cold on the lie of the cards. Think I got a ♦ lead. So not one for the bidding text books :) Still, thought it was a fun hand to post.

[TylerE]

Why are people just assiming that this suit is running? If opener has something like, say, Jxxx of ♠ and AKJxx of ♣, you're only getting 100 out of this, but 4♠ will make comfortably.

[jdonn]

Why are people just assiming that this suit is running? If opener has something like, say, Jxxx of ♠ and AKJxx of ♣, you're only getting 100 out of this, but 4♠ will make comfortably.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Care to calculate the odds that spades are 0-0-4 around the table? Then care to estimate the odds both players with a void pass the double?

[vuroth]

Not to mention that I think you can often do much better than down 1 even IF declarer has ♠Jxxx. But yeah, the other 99% of the time you'll do ok, too.