vuroth Posted February 16, 2010 Report Share Posted February 16, 2010 [hv=d=e&v=b&n=sa985h32dkcak7654&s=skt642hj8754d98c2]133|200|Scoring: MPP P P 1♣1♥ 1♠ P 2♠P P P LHO leads, the A♥, then the A[DE], then the T♥, won by RHO. RHO exits the Q♦[/hv] I was super pressed for time, so I think I missed a couple of inferences at the table that I should totally have picked up on. So what should I be thinking about, and what should my plan be? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vuroth Posted February 17, 2010 Author Report Share Posted February 17, 2010 Things I missed at the table: - Both opps passed with 10 diamonds between them. Decent chance they split 5/5.- LHO overcalled with a 4 card heart suit, without the ace. If I can play spades for 1 loser, I have 7 tricks - 2 clubs, 4 spades, and the spade ruff I just took in the short hand. If I can play spades for 0 losers (if they're 2-2), I have 8 right now. Given that RHO has 9 red cards, clubs splitting 3-3 is unlikely, but establishing clubs would obviously be great at matchpoints. If clubs are ever going to run, RHO needs to have a singleton honour, so I'll need to finesse LHO's honour after I play the K♠. However, if I do that, I won't have the entries I need to dummy's clubs. So I guess the best line from here is low to the K♠ - if an honour fals on your right, A♣, ♣ ruff, finesse ♠s. If no honour falls, A♣, ♣ ruff, A♠, ♣ ruff, ♥ ruff, and clubs now run. That's my guess anyways. I wish I'd seen more at the table, would have made chosing a line easier than guessing, which is what I wound up doing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickRW Posted February 17, 2010 Report Share Posted February 17, 2010 Given that RHO has 9 red cards, clubs splitting 3-3 is unlikely OK, its against the book odds - but it isn't as unlikely as all that. You've already guessed that diamonds are likely 5-5 and hearts 2-4. But they have 22hcp between them and neither opened - so quite likely the high cards are very evenly divided. Now if righty had 11hcp, 5 diamonds and 4 hearts and 3 spades, surely he would have Xed rather than overcalled. So presumably righty doesn't have 3 spades - in which case he probably has 2 or 3 clubs. Just thinkin' here. Nick P.S. If righty had 5 diamonds and 4 hearts, why didn't he overcall ♦? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quiddity Posted February 17, 2010 Report Share Posted February 17, 2010 Yes, surely 1453 is a very likely shape for RHO. I would guess he is either 1453, 2452, or possibly 1444. In any case I think I would start with two top clubs and a club ruff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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