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5-level decision at MP


lmilne

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yeah, at unfav you're a little worried hitting something like xxx/QJxx/QJxx/Kx opposite, where you go -500 if the diamond hook is wrong.

 

red vs white, it's wrong to bid whenever we have 9 or less tricks, or when we have 10 and they have 9 or less. it's right to bid whenever we have 11 or more tricks or both sides have 10. just trying to get a feel for what the frequencies look like (it's probably an easier question at matchpoints because only frequencies are relevant rather than relative risk/reward).

 

so i guess the question could be rephrased as, do you think the probability that we make or have a good vul vs not save is greater than the risk of -500 or a phantom sac? it's probably just a thing you can build up over long experience...

 

i did consider 3, but i didn't think it was going to cause them many problems and my hand kinda felt like a normal overcall.

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lmilne you are forgetting that 5 doesn't have to be the final contract, nor it has to be doubled, by making a mistake yourself you are giving the last guess to opps

people don't bid 5/5 that often... and they are doubling most of the time we are 2 light, right?

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lmilne you are forgetting that 5 doesn't have to be the final contract, nor it has to be doubled, by making a mistake yourself you are giving the last guess to opps

people don't bid 5/5 that often... and they are doubling most of the time we are 2 light, right?

not often, but enough for it to matter

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