From hell?

[PhantomSac]

Obv pass, 3 trump tricks (hopefully) and out...whatever.

[billw55]

Obv pass, 3 trump tricks (hopefully) and out...whatever.

If east has a second trump as should be expected, there are only two trump tricks.

 

Furthermore on the actual hand, 2♠ is cold (I think) despite the third defensive trump trick.

 

All of which supports my original thought that I'm on the hook for -470. I want off it, and if I go for 500 in the process it's only 1 IMP.

 

However there is a substantial majority opinion to pass, so there must be something wrong with my thinking. I'd love some additional explanation. Maybe the risk of -800 is too high?

[jjbrr]

However there is a substantial majority opinion to pass, so there must be something wrong with my thinking. I'd love some additional explanation. Maybe the risk of -800 is too high?

It concerns me that you keep thinking about this hand in terms of really big numbers. East doesn't automatically double every contract we get to, so forget about some of the 500 and 800s you're worried about. Sometimes we make a partscore anyway and we just have +110 or something.

 

Partner effectively had a 10 count and we got a plus score on this hand. That's pretty strong given the alternatives. I think this will occur more often than you're allowing for.

[jdonn]

Why so pessimistic? You probably or definitely get 3 (or 4) trump tricks if dummy has the ace, dummy has the jack, partner has the ace, partner has the jack, dummy has a singleton, dummy has a void, dummy doesn't have enough entries to play things through you a lot of times.

[fred]

Obv pass, 3 trump tricks (hopefully) and out...whatever.

If east has a second trump as should be expected, there are only two trump tricks.

 

Furthermore on the actual hand, 2♠ is cold (I think) despite the third defensive trump trick.

 

All of which supports my original thought that I'm on the hook for -470. I want off it, and if I go for 500 in the process it's only 1 IMP.

 

However there is a substantial majority opinion to pass, so there must be something wrong with my thinking. I'd love some additional explanation. Maybe the risk of -800 is too high?

I haven't read all your posts very carefully, but it sounds to me like your judgment is off in 3 areas:

 

1) Part of your mistake is that you overestimate the chances of -470.

 

You have 2 or 3 tricks defending a spade contract. You don't exactly need your partner to have a lot of high card winners for 2S to go down.

 

2) Part of your mistake is that you underestimate the chances of going for a number.

 

You have zero tricks playing in any suit contract. You need your partner to take a lot of tricks to get out for "only" -300. Sometimes, when a smallish number is possible, partner won't let you out at the 3-level. Often, when a smallish number is possible, partner will have enough to beat 2S.

 

3) Part of your mistake is that you overestimate the chances of ending up in your best spot (especially if you play Lebensohl).

 

Sometimes you might even end up in your worst spot and then it could be extremely bloody. Sometimes there is no best spot and you will go for a large number not matter where you end up. This will be especially painful if 2S was going down.

 

This combination of circumstances (2S down with you going for a big number wherever you play) is not so unlikely. Think about how various actions rate to work if partner has a minimum takeout double with 3 quick tricks and something like 2443 distribution. You can even assume you are always able to find your best 4-3 fit.

 

If you still don't see it, try looking at some randomly generated deals. That should convince you that this one is not even close.

 

Fred Gitelman

Bridge Base Inc.

www.bridgebase.com

[hanp]

Please don't post 30 randomly generated hands.

[billw55]

This combination of circumstances (2S down with you going for a big number wherever you play) is not so unlikely.

Thanks Fred, I think my basic problem (well one of them) is that I was considering this situation to be very unlikely.

 

edit: also I see that the OP says IMPs, but in the later explanation it clearly is pairs. At matchpoints I would have much more respect for the difference between -470 and -500.

[PhantomSac]

There are a lot of imps at stake if you simply convert +100 into -100. That is 5 right there, without them doubling you. Often you will go down 200 a lot if you were just beating them 1, so that's 7 imps, worse than missing a NV game! That kind of swing is extremely likely.

 

And what if you convert -200 from bidding into -470 (surely not that unlikely to go down 2 in a partial if they can make 2S). They didn't double you, and they were cold for 2S, this is like a dream scenario! You picked up... 7 imps.

 

So if you're going down 2 undoubled in what you bid, you gain exactly as much from beating them a measly 1 trick as you do from them making it.

 

And the truth is we are in down three territory a lot, and we could easily be doubled and go for a huge number. If you go -470 instead of -800, you've saved 8 imps! If you go -470 instead of -300 (they forget to double you) lose 5 imps, the same as that +100 instead of -100 swing.

 

This is just a really clear pass, even if you think they make it a lot (which I don't think they will).

[gnasher]

Please don't post 30 randomly generated hands.

Or 30 randomly-generated cats.

[jdonn]

I already thought pass was clear, but I think Justin's analysis of potential imp gains and losses really paints the picture of why it is so irrational to be THAT worried about -470 here. I think it just comes down to a mental thing for some people where "they make a doubled contract against me" is awful but "I go down undoubled" is not that bad, even though he shows that is not necessarily the case at all.

[Apollo81]

Why are people so pessimistic about setting? Sometimes RHO or partner will have the Ace or Jack of spades, and even if they don't, partner is doubling red on white opposite a passed partner and unpassed opponent. I would expect to have the majority of the hcp the majority of the time, even if they aren't positioned well.

[Ulrich]

Amazing for me that this is not unanimous either - a unanimous vote for NOT PASSING.

You biddink 2NT and you having chance to land on feet. Opponents not double yet.

You passing and is likely opps make. Maybe pd have void S, now your S tricks shrinking to one.

I show this hand to number two and number three player in Liechtenstein - Petrosilius Zwackelman and Rauber Hotzenplotz. Bid is automatic they say.

 

I laffink at post say partner may have A or J. You play against idioten?

[jjbrr]

Amazing for me that this is not unanimous either - a unanimous vote for NOT PASSING.

You biddink 2NT and you having chance to land on feet. Opponents not double yet.

You passing and is likely opps make. Maybe pd have void S, now your S tricks shrinking to one.

I show this hand to number two and number three player in Liechtenstein - Petrosilius Zwackelman and Rauber Hotzenplotz. Bid is automatic they say.

 

I laffink at post say partner may have A or J. You play against idioten?

lol

[Codo]

Why are people so pessimistic about setting? Sometimes RHO or partner will have the Ace or Jack of spades,

Sure if you play often opposite people who open 2 spade with 876532 you may even find ace and Jack in partners hand.

 

I do not see three trump tricks that often. I have quite often two tricks in spade. They need no rocket science to play the trump suit with AJxxxx opposite xx.

 

But playing Lebensohl, I would pass too and hope to set them or to lose less then I would by bidding.

[billw55]

I am interested in a sim on this, to see how often they really are making 2♠. However I don't have the capability to run one. Also the conditions might be hard to agree on. For example how often should the ♠A or J be allowed out of west's hand?

[phil_20686]

I do not see three trump tricks that often. I have quite often two tricks in spade. They need no rocket science to play the trump suit with AJxxxx opposite xx.

Any time dummy has a stiff you are guaranteed 3 trump tricks provided that you dont let delclarer shorten his trumps too often..... Partner can have xx spades for his t/o doube, its not that uncommon. Or stiff J and lho has ATxxxxx or something. I would guess you get 3 tricks just under half the time, although maybe i play against more aggressive weak twos than you do.....

[billw55]

I do not see three trump tricks that often. I have quite often two tricks in spade. They need no rocket science to play the trump suit with AJxxxx opposite xx.

Any time dummy has a stiff you are guaranteed 3 trump tricks provided that you dont let delclarer shorten his trumps too often..... Partner can have xx spades for his t/o doube, its not that uncommon. Or stiff J and lho has ATxxxxx or something. I would guess you get 3 tricks just under half the time, although maybe i play against more aggressive weak twos than you do.....

South has the ten. And the nine :)

 

Yes north can have two spades, but I think void or stiff is more likely than two or three. I would guess the defense gets three trump tricks maybe 1/3 of the time.

[helene_t]

Does anyone have a guess as to what might have happened at the other three tables in 2♠X where declarer took 8 tricks?

 

Here it went

 

♦K to the ace.

♠ to Q and ace.

♠ to the 9.

♣ through.

2 club tricks, 1 heart trick and there was no trump coup at the end.

Strange, maybe South failed to play a club, or maybe declarer played hearts and North played the queen so that declarer got two club discards on the hearts (or alternatively an overruff in hearts, reducing South's trump tricks). Or maybe North lead ♣A.

[phil_20686]

Does anyone have a guess as to what might have happened at the other three tables in 2♠X where declarer took 8 tricks?

 

Here it went

 

♦K to the ace.

♠ to Q and ace.

♠ to the 9.

♣ through.

2 club tricks, 1 heart trick and there was no trump coup at the end.

Strange, maybe South failed to play a club, or maybe declarer played hearts and North played the queen so that declarer got two club discards on the hearts (or alternatively an overruff in hearts, reducing South's trump tricks). Or maybe North lead ♣A.

I would be prepared to bet that some tables didnt fly in with a top spade. And simply allowed the j of spades to hold.....

[jdonn]

Amazing for me that this is not unanimous either - a unanimous vote for NOT PASSING.

You biddink 2NT and you having chance to land on feet. Opponents not double yet.

You passing and is likely opps make. Maybe pd have void S, now your S tricks shrinking to one.

I show this hand to number two and number three player in Liechtenstein - Petrosilius Zwackelman and Rauber Hotzenplotz. Bid is automatic they say.

 

I laffink at post say partner may have A or J. You play against idioten?

What shrinks faster, Ulrich's spade tricks or his repertoire of prepositions?