Is this crazy?

[bd71]

[hv=d=n&v=n&s=sxxhakqtxxxdxxcxx]133|100|Scoring: MP

1S-(2D)*-2H-P*

2N-(P)-???

 

*Both opponent bids with confidence and zero pause or apparent problem[/hv]

 

Is it completely crazy to bid 3N instead of 4H here? I did, with the following thoughts:

 

1. The opponents bidding mannerism suggested to me that almost all of the outstanding points were with RHO

2. With probably 24-25 points, seems like just choosing game with best possible chance to make (rather than thinking about overtricks) makes sense.

3. I have 6 losers in hearts and partner had to cover 3 of them in 4H vs. merely needing 2 winners at 3N (assuming the hearts run)

4. NT puts the stronger opponent hand on lead

5. If partners points are in tenaces, opponent strength lies over them. If partners points are top cards, seems like 2 outside tricks and the NT game should be in the bag.

 

Anyway, it worked on this hand (3N making 4, top board), but the question is whether there's a case that 3N is the best long-run percentage action.

 

If you think 4H is the better bid, is your answer the same if it's IMPs?

[karlson]

I think 3n is a good bid.

 

With a little more outside strength, I'd be a bit worried at matchpoints that hearts might make 11 tricks by ruffing out the spades, but it seems unlikely we'll have enough entries to dummy on this hand.

[hotShot]

You don't cover any side suit, so if you play NT, your need your partner to stop any of the 3 suits LHO might lead. So in fact partner needs 3 winner for you to make NT.

So you might make 4NT (7♥ + partners 3 stopper) or you will go down.

 

At IMPs it's more important to make, than to win a few extra points that won't make more than 1 IMP difference.

 

I would estiamte that 4♥ is the safer contract to make.

[bd71]

You don't cover any side suit, so if you play NT, your need your partner to stop any of the 3 suits LHO might lead. So in fact partner needs 3 winner for you to make NT.

Not sure I get this...STOPPER does NOT equal WINNER, right?

[Little Kid]

If 2♥ is forcing, does 2N always promise a stopper? I would try bidding 3♦, if partner can bid 3NT that's great and if he can't then ♥s should be a better contract.

[hotShot]

You don't cover any side suit, so if you play NT, your need your partner to stop any of the 3 suits LHO might lead. So in fact partner needs 3 winner for you to make NT.

Not sure I get this...STOPPER does NOT equal WINNER, right?

You need to win the trick to stop the suit, so the relevant stopper is a winner. :)

 

Should have been more precise.

[jdonn]

You don't cover any side suit, so if you play NT, your need your partner to stop any of the 3 suits LHO might lead. So in fact partner needs 3 winner for you to make NT.

Not sure I get this...STOPPER does NOT equal WINNER, right?

You need to win the trick to stop the suit, so the relevant stopper is a winner. :)

 

Should have been more precise.

Your logic doesn't follow at all. Most extreme example, if partner has KQJT9 x QJT9 KQJ then by your count he has 8 winner so you should claim a grand, yet 3NT will make but 4♥ won't.

 

Another example if he has AQxxx J AJx xxxx then he (probably) only has 2 tricks but you will make 3NT since they probably won't run more than 4 clubs on you.

[hotShot]

Your logic doesn't follow at all. Most extreme example, if partner has KQJT9 x QJT9 KQJ then by your count he has 8 winner so you should claim a grand, yet 3NT will make but 4♥ won't.

 

Another example if he has AQxxx J AJx xxxx then he (probably) only has 2 tricks but you will make 3NT since they probably won't run more than 4 clubs on you.

You did not get the joke?

 

To make 3NT you need 2 WINNER and (often) you need to win a trick in the 3rd suit with your stopper (which makes him a winner too).

 

So if 3NT makes, you 'll often have 10 tricks.

 

Was that precise enough?

[PhantomSac]

3N is completely normal. 4H is wrongsided and you have 7 tricks for 3N.

[jdonn]

I get neither the joke nor the explanation of the joke, which does not mean the same thing that the joke does.

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

 

3NT is not crazy, and it is certainly a reasonable idea playing

MP, your suit is basically rock solid, so trying to go for the bid

MP prize, why not.

 

I still would not do it, but 3NT is ok.

 

With kind regards

Marlowe

[hanp]

I think 3n is a good bid.

Me too.

[Codo]

I hope your partner with Akxxx,Void,KJxx,JTxx is on the same wavelength.... :)

But 3 NT is fine at MPs. I am not sure whether it will be a double dummy winner in a simulation, and it will surely lose some mps boards too, but as the majority, I belive that the winning odds are higher.

[hanp]

I think that it is quite unlikely that partner has a hearts void given that partner did not bid 2S or 3C.

[mcphee]

I would not care what the form of scoring was and bid 3NT. If partner happens to have a H void they need some work on their bidding.

[TylerE]

3N seems pretty obvious to me.

 

PS: Codo....if partner bids 2N on a ♥ void he's getting what he deserved.

[pooltuna]

[hv=d=n&v=n&s=sxxhakqtxxxdxxcxx]133|100|Scoring: MP

1S-(2D)*-2H-P*

2N-(P)-???

 

*Both opponent bids with confidence and zero pause or apparent problem[/hv]

 

Is it completely crazy to bid 3N instead of 4H here? I did, with the following thoughts:

 

1. The opponents bidding mannerism suggested to me that almost all of the outstanding points were with RHO

2. With probably 24-25 points, seems like just choosing game with best possible chance to make (rather than thinking about overtricks) makes sense.

3. I have 6 losers in hearts and partner had to cover 3 of them in 4H vs. merely needing 2 winners at 3N (assuming the hearts run)

4. NT puts the stronger opponent hand on lead

5. If partners points are in tenaces, opponent strength lies over them. If partners points are top cards, seems like 2 outside tricks and the NT game should be in the bag.

 

Anyway, it worked on this hand (3N making 4, top board), but the question is whether there's a case that 3N is the best long-run percentage action.

 

If you think 4H is the better bid, is your answer the same if it's IMPs?

IMV it is pretty much a toss up so don't worry about it too much. The only place you will have a problem is if partner has a stiff♥ with one opp is holding Jxxx even then 3NT is on the order of 70%. This is balanced by the likelyhood that the opps have 4 top tricks to take in 4♥ hard to give that a %age but it is close enough that I wouldn't worry about being in either contract.