Lead choice

[kayin801]

[hv=d=s&v=e&s=s1042hk104daq72ck102]133|100|Scoring: BAM

1♦-(1♠)-P-(2♥)-

P-(3♥)-AP[/hv]

 

Your lead at BAM is...?

[jjbrr]

♣2. Everything else seems too dangerous.

[pooltuna]

[hv=d=s&v=e&s=s1042hk104daq72ck102]133|100|Scoring: BAM

1♦-(1♠)-P-(2♥)-

P-(3♥)-AP[/hv]

 

Your lead at BAM is...?

4♥

[jdonn]

Club, second choice spade I guess.

[andy_h]

club

[hotShot]

♥4

[Jlall]

A heart seems pretty horrible, you risk blowing up the trump suit for not much gain at all. If you want to make a passive lead then lead a spade not a trump. If you think it's important to get your tricks going then lead a club and at least gain something when you risk blowing a trick.

 

Basically I agree with jdonn

[lamford]

Club, second choice spade I guess.

I agree with a club, and don't regard as a spade as that safe. As I have the 10, there is a big risk of a layout of something like AJxxx opposite K9 where the lead may cost. So, the club is not much riskier anyway.

[PhantomSac]

Club, second choice spade I guess.

I agree with a club, and don't regard as a spade as that safe. As I have the 10, there is a big risk of a layout of something like AJxxx opposite K9 where the lead may cost. So, the club is not much riskier anyway.

You have come up with one specific and unlikely layout where a spade has MAYBE cost a trick (it's not like you blow a trick that you had coming, you give them one extra trick, and quite possibly the 3rd pitch doesn't matter at all), and deem that as almost as risky as a club, which can cost a trick quite easily?

 

Ok then.

 

Blowing a tempo is a huge concern but a spade trick costs by setting up a trick for them probably 1 % of the time.

[Codo]

shuffle and draw, second choice spade.

 

At imps I would led more aggressive, it would be a club. But at BAM it is tricky.

[the hog]

I'll go against the crowd here and lead the DA. This will really only blow a trick if the K is with East. Also it will give me a chance to see dummy.

[hotShot]

A heart seems pretty horrible, you risk blowing up the trump suit for not much gain at all. If you want to make a passive lead then lead a spade not a trump.

The lead is intended to be aggressive and not passive.

Maybe I'm overestimating the gain but:

opener has shown 9 cards in the majors, so he probably is 3-1 in the minors and there is a chance that openers hand will ruff more than 1 trick.

Responder should not have 3 ♠ as he did not support them, so openers spade length can be established and partners possible ♠ stopper could easily be ruffed.

With a 4-4 fit I can't keep opps from ruffing a trick at each hand, but I can try to make it harder for them to ruff 2 tricks at one side or setting up a cross ruff.

 

Leading ♠ helps to set up a ruffing finesse against my partner, and leading the wrong minor could create easy ruff entries to the ♠.

 

If I wanted a passive lead, I would have chosen a ♣.

[lamford]

You have come up with one specific and unlikely layout where a spade has MAYBE cost a trick (it's not like you blow a trick that you had coming, you give them one extra trick, and quite possibly the 3rd pitch doesn't matter at all), and deem that as almost as risky as a club, which can cost a trick quite easily?

I agree a club could cost a trick quite easily, but leading the opponent's first bid suit is certainly likely to cost a trick, much more than 1% of the time. I gave one example; K98xx opposite Qx is another. But I agree that it won't necessarily cost your side a trick that it would have won in this suit, but a mixture of establishing the suit and a tempo. And why is this so unlikely; surely 5-2 spades is the most probable layout for the opponents?

[andy_h]

With a 4-4 fit

That's a new one.

 

Personally I also think a club lead would be termed 'aggressive' and a spade lead 'passive'. Basically if you don't lead a club there's a chance that declarer can set up spades and pitch his club(s) (before their club ace is knocked out) on the spade winners.