Best way to play this suit for one loser

[dcohio]

[hv=n=sj973&w=s&e=s&s=skt8642]399|300|[/hv]

 

Contract is 5♦ by South. You can get to either hand without problem to start the diamond suit. You have 1 loser outside of diamonds, how do you best play diamonds?

[Dirk Kuijt]

Leading the J, 9, or 7 from the north hand and passing it if East doesn't play an honor works against East holding A, Q, AQ, Q5, or AQ5.

 

Leading low to the King works against East holding specifically A5.

 

Nothing works if East holds 5 or void.

 

So finessing the J is easily the best.

[dcohio]

Thanks, just wanted to verify my thought at the table.

 

I led the J from dummy, east played the 5. I let it ride and lost to the stiff Q.

[awm]

There is perhaps a little more to it than this.

 

The relevant positions are RHO holding:

 

AQ5

Q5

A5

 

Passing the jack in principle works on the first two, whereas on the third you should play the king. So far looks like the jack is a big win.

 

But there is some possibility that RHO would play an honor with the various holdings. I suspect that few people will hop ace from A5 (unless having a good shot at a ruff somewhere perhaps) whereas playing an honor from AQ5 or Q5 is somewhat more likely. This situation is especially important if either:

 

(1) The opponents do not really have any idea how many diamonds you have from the bidding.

(2) The opponents are not very good.

(3) The dummy entry to repeat the finesse is not an obvious one.

 

I think it's possible that on some auctions and/or against some opponents you might decide that leading the jack and then hopping king is a better line, even though percentage-wise against best defense letting the jack ride is substantially better.

[dcohio]

(1) The opponents do not really have any idea how many diamonds you have from the bidding.

(2) The opponents are not very good.

(3) The dummy entry to repeat the finesse is not an obvious one.

Bidding was: (South dealer, w/r)

 

2♦-2NT* Feature request

3♦-5♦

 

Opponents are above average club players with combined masterpoints of around 500

 

Dummy has obvious entries

 

Basically, after I led the J and RHO followed with the 5, I narrowed it down to those 3 holdings and figured i'd let the J ride to beat two of the 3.

 

Thanks for the input!