2 trap passes!

[mikegill]

A few points

 

1) I don't think there's a need to bid 4♣ with this shape. I think partner expects us to pass with just about any hand with 4 diamonds here, so he should be able to infer our shape from the 3♥ bid and bid 4♣ if that's the right contract.

 

2) I'm not so sure that I would completely rule out a diamond void in partner's hand. If their diamonds are 4-6, LHO shouldn't be freely raising 2♦ to 3 at IMPs with like a 4 count and 4 trumps. 2-4-20-14 seems like a perfectly reasonable distribution of the high cards to me. Now I agree a void in partner's hand still isn't very likely, but I think it's likely enough to matter in the decision.

 

3)

Even if we don't get doubled, surely we rate to go down 2 in 3H or 4C. If our expectation is -200, then -470 is not such a huge disaster in hopes of getting +100 (we risk 270 points to gain 300).

I agree that if we expect -200 then passing and hoping for +100 is fine, but why should we necessarily expect that? If they have 9 diamonds (or occasionally 10) and we have 8 clubs (or hearts if you allow for partner to be 3613) then 17 total tricks means if we're 2 down in 4♣ then they're making 3♦X a lot of the time, so this is actually a win if they don't double. Of bigger concern is that frequently we will end up -100 (or sometimes -200 when one fewer total trick) instead of +100, but even that changes the IMP odds more in favor of bidding. Certainly pulling will be right if partner is void, and I suspect it's very likely to be right if he has a 6th heart, or if the law is underestimating the # of tricks on this particular deal. It seems like not pulling will be a big loss on these deals, but I dunno if this is enough to cancel out all of the -5 and -7s when we go - instead of +. Either way it's a good problem.

 

4) If I were going to pass I would lead a heart hoping for a ruff if they are 3-3 and partner's aren't solid. I don't think I will be getting in enough times to lead trumps to advantage. There's an outside shot I can get a promotion too if partner has a stiff honor.

[gnasher]

Side question, if you do pass, what do you lead?

A heart. There's not much point in a trump lead, because I'm not going to get a chance to lead another one.

[Jlall]

Side question, if you do pass, what do you lead?

A heart. There's not much point in a trump lead, because I'm not going to get a chance to lead another one

I passed and insta led a heart...a spade was the winning lead (beats it 2) and one of my friends said he would lead a spade (without knowing results) so I was just curious heh.

[Jlall]

On the first one partner has Jx KTxx A98x KTx, RHO was 7222 with AK of spades and 3 jacks, so passing got 300 instead of a minus... that one is definitely a scary pass though because if partner is 544 it could be that 3S makes and 4H makes.

[Apollo81]

I would have bid 4♥ on the first one and passed/led a heart on the second one. I find passing pretty scary on the first one, as I think 0(445) is pretty likely.

[gwnn]

I was torn between a spade and a diamond but now nobody will believe me :(

[flytoox]

On the first one partner has Jx KTxx A98x KTx, RHO was 7222 with AK of spades and 3 jacks, so passing got 300 instead of a minus... that one is definitely a scary pass though because if partner is 544 it could be that 3S makes and 4H makes.

Pd's balancing dbl is definitely too aggressive.