2 trap passes!

[Jlall]

r/w imps:

 

Q9x Q98x QTx Axx

 

P P 3S P

P X P ?

 

hand 2:

 

r/w imps

 

Q986 xx Txx xxxx

 

1H 2D p p

X p 2S 3D

X p ?

 

Feel free to comment on 2S vs 2H, but 2S is what you did.

[rogerclee]

1) pass but it's close, 4H has some small extra things working for it (maybe LHO bids 4S now, maybe it makes)

2) 3H

[Hanoi5]

Pass on the first one. 3♥ on the other and I think 2♠ is OK.

[OleBerg]

1) Pass. Easy and uneasy at the same time.

2) Easy 3♥, as I dont play the second X for penalty.

[mikegill]

I would bid 4♥ on the first one. Even if 4♥ is in trouble, they might not be able to double since RHO might have extra values given he's 3rd seat, and 3♠ could easily be making. Also 4♥ could be making, and even if it's not, LHO might save in 4♠ since he will frequently pass 3♠ here with 3.

 

2nd one I would pull to 3♥. Partner has a great hand with diamond shortness, so I don't see why I want to play defense here with nothing in their suit. 3♥ should at least get us to the right major. Maybe it's right to pass if he has 3523 19 or something? I'm not sure he would bid like this with that hand, though, and it seems to me more likely he has 4513 or 3613.

[Jlall]

I would bid 4♥ on the first one. Even if 4♥ is in trouble, they might not be able to double since RHO might have extra values given he's 3rd seat, and 3♠ could easily be making. Also 4♥ could be making, and even if it's not, LHO might save in 4♠ since he will frequently pass 3♠ here with 3.

 

2nd one I would pull to 3♥. Partner has a great hand with diamond shortness, so I don't see why I want to play defense here with nothing in their suit. 3♥ should at least get us to the right major. Maybe it's right to pass if he has 3523 19 or something? I'm not sure he would bid like this with that hand, though, and it seems to me more likely he has 4513 or 3613.

With 4513 partner would just raise spades...or did you mean 3514? I agree that 3514 is by far the most likely shape, and 3613 is the 2nd most likely (some 3613s would just bid 3H over 3D). 3523 I would consider impossible, partner should just pass 3D with that imo.

[jdonn]

1. 4♥, don't see why pass should work or why 3NT would be a better contract. Maybe partner has a spade void.

 

2. Pass, planning on leading a trump and hoping we have the other suits locked up. Some hands with 6 hearts he would have bid 3♥ himself, and if he is 3523 I definitely want to pass whereas over other shapes either bidding or passing could be right. Also I like the 2♠ bid.

 

Now seeing the above post, I don't agree 3523 is impossible. If his hand is nice why shouldn't he show extras in case we are pretty weak with 5-6 spades or can make a good pass? It's not totally safe, but neither is bidding a hand with 18 the same as you might bid that hand with 12.

[jjbrr]

4♥

 

3♥. I'm glad partner will be playing the hand!

[Jlall]

Now seeing the above post, I don't agree 3523 is impossible. If his hand is nice why shouldn't he show extras in case we are pretty weak with 5-6 spades or can make a good pass? It's not totally safe, but neither is bidding a hand with 18 the same as you might bid that hand with 12.

If partner has 6 spades he will compete to 3S himself. The fact that we have not specifically shown extra values does not preclude partner from deducing we have them when he has 6 spades and a yarb and the opps play 3D. I do not buy the "bidding 18 the same as you would bid with 12" argument, we would routinely pass with a balanced 18 on the auction 1D 1H p 2H ? for instance if we didn't have a doubleton heart, because partner has already shown a weak hand, and could have 0 pretty easily, especially with the opps showing some strength.

 

At the end of the day if we are balanced without much shape, and we clearly have no game, it doesn't really matter that we have extra values, we should just defend quietly. The only time I care about showing that I have 18 instead of 12 is if I'm trying to get to a game. Risking forcing partner to bid and going for a number or just going minus instead of plus when partner has shown weakness, and we've already shown support for the other suits, just seems like a really losing proposition.

 

I think partner's 2nd double when we have shown nothing should not only be very strong, but should also be made with enough offense/shape to think that bidding on opposite our possible yarborough instead of defending 3D is correct. I would never think that with something like AKx AKxxx xx Axx.

[nigel_k]

1. 4♥. I think this is percentage though 3NT could work on some hands.

2. 3♥. I might bid 3♠ if I could be certain he would pass but prefer 3♥ as it's less encouraging and he may have 6 hearts sometimes.

 

I wouldn't consider passing either one but then I haven't been reading these forums as long as some others.

[jdonn]

AKx AKxxx xx Axx? I bet it's +EV easily to defend 3♦X any time partner has 4 spades or play 3♠ any time he has 5(+) relative to just defending 3♦ undoubled.

[Jlall]

AKx AKxxx xx Axx? I bet it's +EV easily to defend 3♦X any time partner has 4 spades or play 3♠ any time he has 5(+) relative to just defending 3♦ undoubled.

Sure, if partner was always passing the double unless he had 5 spades, I would agree with you. But that is not what is happening (as evidenced by this thread!)

 

In reality opposite everyone else who posted in this thread you will go down probably 200, maybe 100, maybe 500, instead of plus 50/100/150. Those are large swings.

[jdonn]

AKx AKxxx xx Axx? I bet it's +EV easily to defend 3♦X any time partner has 4 spades or play 3♠ any time he has 5(+) relative to just defending 3♦ undoubled.

Sure, if partner was always passing the double unless he had 5 spades, I would agree with you. But that is not what is happening (as evidenced by this thread!)

Good point! Although the results surprise me, I would never have guessed it's like wtp 3♥ here.

[xcurt]

4♥ on the first.

 

Pass on the second. Our alternative is at best making a partscore, and could easily be -500. Seems right to play for down 1/down 1 here. On hands where they wrap it, the loss is limited since we're probably getting killed in our alternative spot. I'm leading a heart.

 

Edit -- btw I would have bid 2♥ not 2♠ because that seems like the quickest way to tell partner I have dog. I have a dog.

[Jlall]

Edit -- btw I would have bid 2♥ not 2♠ because that seems like the quickest way to tell partner I have dog. I have a dog.

hmm, I think the opposite is true. If we announce that we have 4 spades and didn't make a negative double, our max seems lower than hands where we have a doubleton heart and didn't bid over 2D.

 

For instance:

 

Kxxx xx xxx KQxx would make a negative X.

Kxx xx xxxx KQxx would pass 2D (and then bid 2H).

 

So our max for pass then 2S is lower than our max for pass then 2H.

[gnasher]

4♥ on the first one. I'd only pass the double with a moderate trump holding if I didn't have an attractive alternative. Here, I'm taking it out to a game that may well make.

 

On the second one, the only attractive thing about 3♥ is that I won't have to play it.

 

Partner is probably 3514 or 3505. With 3613 he should have bid his hearts. With a 3523 shape, he'd basically be hoping that the double would be left in except opposite six spades. I don't think you can play the double as ranging from pure takeout to near-penalty.

 

To make 3♥ after being forced at trick 1, he'll probably need to have nine fast tricks. He didn't open 2♣, so that seems unlikely.

 

I'd take it out to 4♣, which is the suit where I know we have a fit, and the only suit where my hand will have some value. I admire anyone who passes, but I don't have the bottle to do that even when they're only pretend IMPs.

[quiddity]

On hand 1 I would pass. I can imagine lots of ways to set 3S and few chances to make 4H.

 

Also, I don't think lefty is auto-saving over 4H here with a passed hand on his left and a hand that couldn't act over 3S on his right. I think he'll frequently take a shot at defense here, and every so often he'll have a trappy hand with hearts and we'll go for a ridiculous number.

 

On hand 2 I like the argument for 4C, though I don't like the fact that it's a level higher. 3S could be right too.

[MarkDean]

First one I am very strongly in favor of 4♥. Partner is a passed hand forcing to the four level: I expect him to never have two spades, and often to have none.

 

The second hand is tough. I would bid 3♥, but have sympathy for gnasher's 4♣.

[flytoox]

First one I　am torn between 4H and pass. Pd is a passed hand and his dbl shows nothing other than shape. 3S could be ice cold. So I will go with 4H.

 

Second one I think it is a easy pass. Pd's two dbl should show a very good hand and I do have a card-Spade Queen. I would be very surpirsed if we cannot set 3D.

[gwnn]

4♥ and pass, the second doesn't look close at all to me, but that's because I still blindly follow the law as gnasher exposed me earlier this month :)

[Codo]

I luv hearts, so I bid 7 ♥- 4 in the first part, 3 in the second.

[mcphee]

To all those who ever consider 3NT, may the gods be with you. 4H and I hope it makes. I am not passing this dble although it might work, and so might 4H.

 

I show all of my H support at this point, ugh. I think to advance 4C shows a better hand than this one. We have a 4-3 S fit and might have a 6-2 H fit and the nice thing is I might be able to ask a caddy to play the dummy.

[gnasher]

4♥ and pass, the second doesn't look close at all to me, but that's because I still blindly follow the law as gnasher exposed me earlier this month :)

:)

 

I don't particularly want to bid 4♣; I'm just too scared to pass 3♥. I'm not exactly rich in defensive values.

 

I even accept the premise of the "Law" that when 3♥ is making 4♣ is likely to go more off, but I'm hoping that when that's the situation they won't double us.

[pooltuna]

r/w imps:

 

Q9x Q98x QTx Axx

 

P P 3S P

P X P ?

 

hand 2:

 

r/w imps

 

Q986 xx Txx xxxx

 

1H 2D p p

X p 2S 3D

X p ?

 

Feel free to comment on 2S vs 2H, but 2S is what you did.

I would pass in both cases.

[Jlall]

4♥ and pass, the second doesn't look close at all to me, but that's because I still blindly follow the law as gnasher exposed me earlier this month B)

:)

 

I don't particularly want to bid 4♣; I'm just too scared to pass 3♥. I'm not exactly rich in defensive values.

 

I even accept the premise of the "Law" that when 3♥ is making 4♣ is likely to go more off, but I'm hoping that when that's the situation they won't double us.

Even if we don't get doubled, surely we rate to go down 2 in 3H or 4C. If our expectation is -200, then -470 is not such a huge disaster in hopes of getting +100 (we risk 270 points to gain 300). Red/white is a weird game imo.

 

I disagree with you that partner cannot be 3613 and is more likely 3505. For 3613 he could obviously bid 3H now, but if he had a hand with bad hearts and something like AKx ATxxxx x AKx I think Xing again would be better. Couldn't 3H now sound like 2614, or at least better hearts/more offense/less defense? If you think partner usually bids 2H with 4-2 in the majors, then partner will usually have 5 spades or a stiff heart, and if hes 4144 you can get a big number Xing again, and if hes 4135 4C will be better than 4H in a bad 6-1 (partner might correct to 4C but I think he might try to play a 6-1, especially with stiff honor).

 

3505 seems really unlikely given our hand just because the opponents do not sound like they have 10 diamonds. They are w/r and passed 2D. If RHO had 7 diamonds he might have bid 3D over the X, and if LHO had 4 diamonds he would probably bid over 2D, especially given how weak we are (meaning we know he has some values).

 

But yeah I think if you think you beat 3D X a trick even 2/3rds of the time you will gain a lot by passing (sometimes you are going -300 if you bid, sometimes they can X and you go -500/800 anyways), since going plus is very valuable compared to going minus in vul undertricks, and -470 is not as horrible as it sounds.

 

I think given how strong partner's hand rates to be, we definitely rate to beat 3D enough of the time to go for it.

 

Side question, if you do pass, what do you lead?