bftboy Posted January 22, 2010 Report Share Posted January 22, 2010 [hv=d=s&v=b&n=saqj102hqj2d64ck73&s=s9ha10963dj872caqj]133|200|Scoring: IMP[/hv] 4♥ with no opp bidding. Opening lead is ♣ 10. What is the best % line for this one? would be very interested to see briefly how you arrive at your % for various lines. thx, :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billw55 Posted January 22, 2010 Report Share Posted January 22, 2010 I'll take it in dummy and play a diamond to the jack, trying to help east play low. If west takes it, he can't profitably return a trump, so I should get to ruff both diamond losers. Losing two diamonds and a heart. No idea on the percentage unfortunately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dellache Posted January 23, 2010 Report Share Posted January 23, 2010 Take lead in hand, ♠ to Ace, let the ♠Q run.Too many variants to compute %age. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bftboy Posted January 23, 2010 Author Report Share Posted January 23, 2010 Can't sleep, so... anyway, playing to ruff two ♦ per billw55 is line 1, and works whenever both ♣ and ♦ are 4-3 or 3-4. You can survive 2-5 in ♣ if ♦ are 4-3 and you can also pick up ♥ K. You can probably always survive 5-2 ♦ as long as trumps don't break crazy, since you can ruff both ♦ high. Line 2 is to win in hand and finesse ♠ K. If wins, pitch ♦ on ♠ A, and finesse ♥ K. If that wins, you can repeat and pick up K 4th, but if it loses on the 2d round (good defense) you are in danger of an overruff after the defense cashes 2 ♦. If the ♠ finesse loses, you need 4-3 ♦ and no worse then K third of ♥ onside. Line 3, as Dellache says, is to win in hand then take the ruffing finesse in ♠. If not covered, probably best to pitch a ♦ and assuming LHO wins, you again need 4-3 ♦ plus pick up ♥ K. If the ♠ is covered, however, you are in great shape, needing pretty much only 3-2 trumps. Ruff and play low ♥ to Q. If someone wins, ruff 3d ♦ high in dummy, draw trumps, cross to dummy in ♣, and pitch losing ♦ on good ♠. If no one wins ♥ Q, cross to ♥ A, then to dummy in ♣, and pitch 2 or maybe 3 ♦ on good ♠. All 3 lines look very sensible to me, and would be grateful for any help figuring out which is most likely to succeed. thx :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dellache Posted January 23, 2010 Report Share Posted January 23, 2010 Can't sleep, so... anyway, playing to ruff two ♦ per billw55 is line 1, and works whenever both ♣ and ♦ are 4-3 or 3-4. You can survive 2-5 in ♣ if ♦ are 4-3 and you can also pick up ♥ K. You can probably always survive 5-2 ♦ as long as trumps don't break crazy, since you can ruff both ♦ high. The defense can usually play trump twice, even when West takes the first Diamond trick. This line seems unrealistic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billw55 Posted January 25, 2010 Report Share Posted January 25, 2010 Can't sleep, so... anyway, playing to ruff two ♦ per billw55 is line 1, and works whenever both ♣ and ♦ are 4-3 or 3-4. You can survive 2-5 in ♣ if ♦ are 4-3 and you can also pick up ♥ K. You can probably always survive 5-2 ♦ as long as trumps don't break crazy, since you can ruff both ♦ high. The defense can usually play trump twice, even when West takes the first Diamond trick. This line seems unrealistic. True, west can lead a trump. But doing so might remove the potential trump loser. And if it doesn't, declarer still has chances in spades. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Apollo81 Posted January 25, 2010 Report Share Posted January 25, 2010 I'll win the ♣A and lead a diamond out of hand. This allows me to switch from the ruffing line to the establishing spades line (retaining ♣K as entry) depending on what the defense does. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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